NFL Playoffs: Wiesguy's 2 Picks and a Prop for Cowboys-Buccaneers

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, January 16, 2023
8:15 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Spread: Dallas Cowboys -2.5
Total: 45.5

Back in September, it was a 19-3 win by the Bucs. That was an easy cover and under. Not surprisingly, it was the lowest-scoring output of the Cowboys all season long. Now they are road favorites in the playoffs. Interesting. 

Spread Pick: Dallas -2.5

This one is more of a fade of the Bucs for me. I don't want to go down the path of them being lucky to be in a bad division, but they have had so many games where they have been not very good this season. They did beat Dallas early but I think the steadiest thing heading into this game is the Dallas defense and I can see them limiting Tampa to about 17 points and getting away with a win late. This game might be close but that does not mean it is good football. 

Total Pick: Under 45.5

This total is way higher than I expected. When these teams met earlier in the season they barely scored half of that number and even though it was just one data point it still feels very relevant. When they connected the season before it was a high-scoring game but both of these teams are very different then they were back then. All season long the Cowboys have been at their best when leaning on their running game on defense and on the road in the playoffs I expect that to continue. They are not going to take any more chances than need be. I like a 20-17 final score. 

Prop Pick: Tom Brady over 277.5 Passing Yards

Who knows what the future will be for Brady? At the very least this looks like his last game as a Buc. With the way their offense has been, I think their only chance is to throw it a lot, and I think they will be playing primarily from behind which often gooses up passing totals as well. I don't know if he is going to set any records but adding another 300+ yard game to his playoff resume looks likely.