NFL Predictions, Picks: Expert Reveals Week 18 Best Bets

Chiefs vs. Broncos

Chiefs +10.5 (-105)

The Chiefs closed as 7.5-point favorites at home in the first meeting, which equates to -3.5 to -4.5 if they were in Denver, suggesting roughly a 14-point swing based on them resting starters. Patrick Mahomes to Carson Wentz is worth a 7-point drop-off, but this line is still inflated due to Denver being in a must-win situation.

Kansas City has won outright as underdogs while resting starters in the last week of the regular season a couple of times in the Andy Reid era, including as recently as last season’s 13-12 win over the Chargers in Week 18.

The Broncos’ combination of a rookie quarterback, lack of a consistent running game, and a coach who has shown he will err on the side of conservative decision-making could make it difficult to build and sustain margin.

It’s also important to remember that the Chiefs are better than your average team in this spot because of how strong their coaching staff is. Since 2007, Reid-coached teams are 5-0 as a double-digit underdog, according to our Action Labs data.

And according to our Director of Research, Evan Abrams, teams with a winning percentage of 70% or more, like the Chiefs who are underdogs of +9.5 or more in their 16th game or later — essentially signaling a bunch of key players out — are 4-0 ATS in this spot.

Pick: Chiefs +10.5 (-105); Bet to +9.5 

Dolphins vs. Jets

Jets +1 (-115)

Per Stuckey, teams that need to win and are facing eliminated teams are 69-105-4 (40%) ATS over the final two weeks of the regular season.

The Jets played the Dolphins close in Miami with Tua Tagovailoa (doubtful-hip) healthy in Week 13, outgaining them 402-375 in a narrow 32-26 overtime loss in which the Dolphins needed a game-tying, 52-yard field goal at the buzzer just to get to overtime.

Tyler Huntley got the win for Miami last week over the hapless Browns, but he is a significant downgrade from Tagovailoa. Whereas Tagovailoa’s career yards per attempt mark sits at 7.6, Huntley clocks in at 5.9.

This season, Tagovailoa is eighth among 46 qualified quarterbacks with 0.20 Expected Points Added per Dropback while Huntley is 36th (-0.053). In terms of success rate, Tagovailoa is third (53.2%) while Huntley is 43rd (38.1%).

This is also a Dolphins team that notoriously struggles in cooler climates, and Sunday’s forecast calls for near-freezing temperatures with a chance of snow.

Pick: Jets +1 (-115); Bet to -2 

Vikings vs. Lions

Under 56.5 (-112)

Regardless of how good the offenses are or how bad the defenses are, totals this high are almost never warranted.

Per our Action Labs data, totals of 55 or higher are 48-29 (62%) toward the under since 2005.

This is also not your typical high-totaled game.

For one, it’s a divisional matchup, which are usually low-scoring games. In divisional games, totals of 55 or higher since 2005 have gone 13-7 (65%) toward the under, covering by 3.35 points per game.

This is also not a game between two bottom-of-the-barrel defenses.

As banged up as the Lions are defensively, this is still a defense that ranks seventh in DVOA and spent much of the year in the top three. And on the other side, the Vikings rank third in terms of defensive DVOA.

Pick: Under 56.5 (-112); Bet to Under 55