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NFL Projection Model Predicts Winner of Super Bowl LIX

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Chris Phelps | Last updated Jan 27, 2025 8:20 PM ET

Super Bowl LIX has been officially set as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will take on Jalen Hurts and the Philadephia Eagles in New Orleans, Louisiana.

The Eagles got here after finishing the regular season 14-3 and with the NFC's No. 2 seed. In the playoffs, they defeated the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams before ending Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders' Cinderella Story in the NFC Championship Game.

The Chiefs (15-2), on the other hand, had a shorter journey to the big game. After defeating the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, Kansas City escaped Arrowhead Stadium with a 32-29 win over Josh Allen and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Ahead of the big game, The Athletics' Austin Mock updated his NFL Projection Model to reflect just the two remaining teams. The computer simulates the chances each team has of winning its division, advancing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

According to Mock's updated model, the Chiefs have been predicted to win Super Bowl LIX with a 50.8% chance, while the Eagles have a 49.2% chance: a difference of 1.6%.

This would be a similar outcome to Super Bowl LVII when the Mahomes secured his second ring with the Chiefs after defeating the Eagles 38-35. This prequel, so to speak, ended in the final seconds as Harrison Butker hit a go-ahead 27-yard field goal to ultimately seal the win.

Kansas City is a team filled with proven leaders and stars, eyeing the first-ever Super Bowl three-peat. However, the Eagles' run game, led by Saquon Barkley, presents a tall task for Andy Reid and company.

Barkley led the Eagles to 179.3 rushing yards per game, second in the NFL. Kansas City has proven it can stop the run, allowing just 101.8 rushing yards per game (8th).