NFL Sunday player props: Plenty to like for Super Wild Card Weekend

Brandin Cooks over 36.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)

Heading into this one, one of the clearer vulnerabilities to me is Green Bay's secondary, which has allowed 3.29 passes of 20+ yards per game this season, good for eighth-most in the NFL. This has grown into a bigger issue over the last month and a half, as the Packers have allowed the fifth-most explosive passes in the last six games.

CeeDee Lamb has been having a great season and is a strong choice in this one, but I prefer the far lower line on Brandin Cooks. Cooks serves as more of a deep-threat in this offense. His average depth of target (aDOT) of 13.5 is higher than Lamb's at 10.1, and 22% of Cooks's targets come 20+ yards down the field, compared to 15.6% of Lamb's.

I'm comfortable projecting that Cooks hauls in a 20+ yard catch in this game. When he's done that, he's over this line in all six games this season, averaging 72.2 yards/game.

Matthew Stafford over 270.5 passing yards (-114 FD)

The Stafford return to Detroit is an understandably popular storyline, and I'm here for it. From a props perspective, I absolutely love the Los Angeles offense to find success passing on Sunday night.

Detroit is allowing the most 20+ yard passes per game, the third-most yards per pass, the sixth-most passing yards per game, and they have gotten torched by WRs more and more of late. Few teams have a WR room that compares to the Rams, and I can't pick between the two top options in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. For that reason, I'm just opting to take Stafford's over here.

He's hit this number in four of his last five games, averaging 295.2 yards/game. Five straight QBs have covered their passing yards prop against the Lions, and the past three passers to see Detroit were Nick Mullens (396), Dak Prescott (345) and Mullens again (411). Stafford should have his way with this Lions secondary.

Demarcus Robinson over 39.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

I have to double-dip on this Rams passing attack read. While I'm having a more difficult time choosing between Kupp and Nacua at their 70+ yardage lines, I do think Robinson down here at 39.5 is an absolute bargain.

Robinson has hit this number in each of his past five games, averaging 63.8 yards per game. He's also emerged as the down-field threat in this offense, sporting a 13.2 aDOT and seeing 23.1% of his targets 20+ yards down the field. As mentioned, Detroit is having an extremely difficult time slowing down big plays through the air. Robinson could hit this number on just a few catches.

Najee Harris over 58.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)

Of the six NFL games this weekend, I'd argue this Buffalo-Pittsburgh game offers us the least to feel excited about from a player prop perspective. The forecast of high winds and over/under set at just 36 would seem to agree with that assessment.

Note: Bills-Steelers has been postponed until Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET due to a brutal snowstorm hitting the area.

However, the one spot that does catch my eye is this Buffalo run defense, allowing the fifth-most yards per rush this season.

That opens the door for Najee Harris, who has taken 19, 27 and 26 carries over his last three games, averaging 104 rushing yards per game. That usage figures to remain, and if this wind can limit the Bills offense, Pittsburgh can stay in this game long enough to get Harris the usage we'd need.

Harris has a 15.5 rush attempts line, another solid bet considering the weather and his recent workload numbers. Over the past 15 games in which the Steelers RB has toted the ball 15+ times, he's over this line 14 times, averaging 86.6 yards/game.