NFL Super Wild Card Weekend: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills betting picks, preview

The Bills-Steelers game has been postponed until Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET due to a brutal snowstorm hitting the area.

Pittsburgh has had its frustrations too, but here the Steelers are in the playoffs, again. Shocker. These teams last met last year and the Bills dominated, winning 38-3.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Trends and Odds   

Monday, Jan. 15, 2024 —  4:30 p.m. ET (ppd. from Sunday)
TV: CBS, stream on Paramount +
Spread: Buffalo -10, Over/under: 36.5, Pittsburgh +136 | Buffalo -162

Weather update: New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced at a press conference on Sunday that the Bills-Steelers playoff game will not be delayed for a second time. That means kickoff for 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday remains in place, despite the ongoing blizzard conditions and travel ban around Orchard Park.

The weather will likely play a factor even when the game is played on Monday afternoon, so keep an eye on the lines. We suggest consulting The Action Network before locking in your bets.

A couple of things about this line stand out. First, it is the biggest spread of the first weekend of the playoffs. Only the Cowboys are also more than a TD favorite. Second, is that this big spread comes with the lowest total of the weekend too. That is not very common and it might even creep lower due to the weather forecasts.

Picks for Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo

Buffalo -10, Both Teams to Score 10+ Points - No (+150)

I am really impressed with the way Buffalo has become one of the most resilient teams in the NFL. Quarterback Josh Allen is awesome but seldom perfect, yet the Bills find ways to win. This week, their defense has a much easier task than last week and with a rejuvenated run game, I am expecting the Bills to be the much better offense on Sunday. With the anticipated bad weather Allen is even more of a weapon because of the strength of his arm and because he can run, too.

Pittsburgh is going to be missing top edge-rusher T.J. Watt to apply any consistent pressure, so they are likely going to have to get creative on defense. That is less than desirable for a playoff game, especially when there is not a lot of trust in their own offense to play catch-up. This is a big number but it makes sense. 

Connected with the side play above, I am not expecting much from the Pittsburgh offense this week. Buffalo showed how they could shut down one of the most explosive teams in the league last week (against Miami) and the defense is playing at such a high level right now. They are ninth in yards allowed and fourth in points (18 ppg). Garbage scoring could wreck this of course, but I am expecting Buffalo in complete control, something like a 27-7 final score. 

Pittsburgh is getting slightly more bets but the money is with Buffalo right now. That is telling me teams are just intrigued with such a large underdog in a playoff situation. At -10 it is going to take a lot of money to move this from this very key number. This game is in the middle of a long weekend of football so there will not be as much chasing.