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Kansas City Chiefs players including Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton (32) celebrate. Robert Scheer/IndyStar Staff-USA TODAY Sports

NFL 'TNF' Week 1: Best bets and preview for Lions vs. Chiefs

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 9/7/23

Ladies and gentlemen, we've finally made it. The NFL is officially back, and we've got a doozy to kick off the 2023 season.

The reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the up-and-coming Detroit Lions on "Thursday Night Football," and we've got plenty of spread drama leading up to the season opener. Let's break down this highly anticipated matchup and try to find some winning bets along the way.

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs betting breakdown

Tonight's odds: Chiefs -4.5, over/under 52.5, Chiefs -235 moneyline | Lions +194 moneyline

When the Week 1 spreads first appeared earlier this summer, sportsbooks pegged the Chiefs as seven-point home favorites over the Lions. That number quickly dipped to 6.5, and it hung out around six for the last month leading up to this week.

Then, during Tuesday's practice, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee and suffered a bone bruise. The superstar pass-catcher is listed as questionable for Thursday night's tilt.

Kansas City also has some issues on the other side of the ball, as All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones is still holding out for a new contract and may not suit up in Week 1. Jones and the Chiefs don't seem to be very close in their negotiations, and it doesn't help that the San Francisco 49ers just shelled out a record-setting $170 million contract to reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa. Expect Jones to be on the sidelines for "TNF."

Considering Kelce and Jones are the most important players on the Chiefs not named Patrick Mahomes, books were quick to move the spread down from -6 to -4.5. That's where we stand on game day.

There's far less drama surrounding the Lions leading up to "TNF." Detroit will have its full complement of offensive weapons available, which includes leading receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, a new-look backfield featuring David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and intriguing rookie tight end Sam LaPorta.

Detroit should have an improved defensive unit thanks to the offseason additions of defensive backs C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley. It's easy to see why the Lions have garnered so much hype this offseason, and they have a chance to announce their arrival Thursday night.

Thursday Night Football picks

Over 52.5 (-112 FanDuel)

No one's going to argue with an over to start the year, right? I don't love playing overs this high in the NFL, but I think this is the best look in terms of the spread and total.

After the Kelce news dropped earlier this week, the total for "TNF" dropped from 54 to 52.5. I disagree with that move. First off, Kelce still hasn't been ruled out for the game. Even if he doesn't suit up, this is Mahomes we're talking about. The guy could put up 30 points throwing to the Chiefs' equipment managers, and Kansas City has plenty of capable weapons in Kadarius Toney, Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon.

As for the Lions, they've put up 33 and 35 points, respectively, in their two season openers with Jared Goff under center. We know they can move the ball through the air, but the Lions should feast in the run game with an elite offensive line going up against an undermanned Chiefs defense likely missing their best defensive lineman.

Both of these teams ranked inside the top five in points per game and yards per play last year, and they should be able to repeat that success in 2023. We're taking the discounted over for "TNF."

Nick Bolton over 8.5 tackles + assists (-150 DraftKings)

Let's go to the defensive side of the ball for my favorite prop bet of the night.

Nick Bolton broke out last year with 180 combined tackles in the regular season, which ranked second in the NFL. The Chiefs linebacker went over this line in 13 of 17 games while averaging 10.59 tackles and assists per game.

With Jones unlikely to play Thursday night, Bolton will be heavily relied upon against what should be a run-heavy approach for the Lions. The juice is significant, but I still think there's value on this prop at 8.5.

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