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NFL 'TNF' Week 3: Two Giants player props vs. Niners
My read of this game is it's going to get ugly for the Giants. No Saquon Barkley, no Andrew Thomas. They looked bad in Week 1 and needed a big comeback to beat the lowly Cardinals.
Against the 2-0 49ers and with a 10.5-point spread, it isn't projected to turn around. Off that belief, I think we can attack the prop market accordingly.
Two volume props for New York
1u: Daniel Jones over 7.5 rushing attempts (+157 DraftKings w/50% TNF boost)
If you don't have DraftKings or the boost, CZR and MGM have this at +110.
Through two weeks, Daniel Jones has hit this line in both games, carrying the ball 13 times in Week 1 and nine times in Week 2.
Without Barkley and likely seeing pressure all night, I love this line at plus money. New York is sure to set up some designed runs for Jones just like they do every week, but there's also going to be a few play breakdowns here that result in Jones scrambling.
What I really like here is that Jones rushed the ball eight times in the second half of that comeback against Arizona. I'm expecting a similar type of deficit here, and as such, I'm expecting a similar volume of carries.
Ovr the past five games, Jones is averaging 11.2 rush attempts per game, going over this line four times. I'd be comfortable playing this at 8.5 as well.
1u: Matt Breida over 2.5 receptions (+140 BetMGM)
I love taking a chance on Breida catching the football here at +140. The last time Barkley did not play, Breida caught seven balls on eight targets.
More than though, San Francisco has been vulnerable to running backs in the passing game. The 49ers have allowed the third-most receptions to RBs through two weeks, and they let up the seventh-most last season.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
Just last week we watched Rams running back Kyren Williams catch six balls for 48 yards, and Week 1 saw Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combine for seven catches.
Saquon Barkley is tied for second on this team through two weeks with 11 targets, and in 2022 he was in the same position.
Now, Breida isn't Barkley, but this shows me a fundamental desire for Jones to dump off the ball to his backs. Similar to the logic from above, should the pressure become too much, I'd expect more short passes dialed up, and Breida is the man set to take advantage. At +140, I'll gladly dance.
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