NFL Week 10: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, betting picks, preview

What is more classic than Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh, right? Unfortunately, we are not getting something like Aaron Rodgers vs. Big Ben to go along with these big brands as both teams are struggling to find what they need at the most critical position on the field. The Steelers are hanging in thanks to a strong defense, but Green Bay is in a spot where their 2023 relevance is slipping away.

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends and Odds

Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023 —  1 p.m. ET
Odds: Pittsburgh -3, Over/under 39, Green Bay +145 | Pittsburgh -175

There is nothing more lame than a line where the home team is favored by a field goal. That doesn't mean it is off though. It does mean that it is probably going to be tough to move off of the current number because any move is likely to invite an immediate reaction from the other side. It also means that the teaser markets could have an influence as well as Moneyline parlays. 

Picks for Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh -3; George Pickens Over 3.5 Receptions +114

We have a low total for this game, not surprising given that the strongest unit on the field is the Pittsburgh defense and that neither quarterback has shown us much reason to believe in them. Pittsburgh is going to play a conservative game, working field position and putting points on the board by any means possible, knowing that there is no reason to force it. Even though Green Bay won by 17 points last week they only scored 20 points and have not exceeded that point total since Week 2. Pittsburgh is not going to light it up offensively, but just a few big plays will make the difference. They can rely on Green Bay beating themselves too. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is among league leaders in interceptions and a rare starting pivot that does not complete even 50% of his passes.

Pittsburgh receiver George Pickens is the best playmaker the Steelers have right now. This reception total number is right at his average in receptions for the season and I think it is worth a shot as the Steelers need to feature him and take some shots to score some points. He can win one-on-one battles on the outside. He would have cashed this total in five of eight games so far this season too.
 
The markets have yet to really take a stand on this one. Tickets are actually 50/50 right now. With the number where it is that probably holds unless there is some real news. You can always go ML if it moves away from us.