Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4). Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 11: Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers betting picks, preview

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 11/16/23

The Cowboys and Panthers meet in Week 11, and it's quite clear what direction we need to go with our bets.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers: Betting Odds

Spread: Dallas -10.5, Over/under: 42.5 points, Dallas -550 | Carolina +410

The Dallas Cowboys are fresh off a 49-17 throttling of the New York Giants, their fifth win this season that has come by 20+ points.

The Cowboys are now 6-3 and would be the fifth seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today. They're two games back of the Eagles for the top spot in the NFC East, but their +104 point differential is the third-highest mark in the NFL.

Dak Prescott has been on a scorching run, aided by CeeDee Lamb, and the defense continues to make plays.

On the flip side, Carolina has the worst record in football at 1-8 and there are murmurs that head coach Frank Reich may get fired in his first season with the team. Top overall pick Bryce Young has looked way over his head, and this offense has mustered only 17.0 points per game this season.

It doesn't help that the Panthers cannot stop the run at all. Teams run the ball at the highest frequency against Carolina and they just keep getting gashed on the ground.

Dallas is 6-3 ATS and 6-3 to the over. Carolina has gone under in six of their nine games and are a league-worst 1-6-2 ATS.

Betting Picks for Dallas vs. Carolina

Cowboys -10.5

Save for an early-season matchup with Arizona, Dallas has done a great job of beating up on inferior opponents, and few can match just how bad Carolina has been this season.

As we mentioned, the Panthers are perhaps the worst run defense in football. That should open the door for Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle to grab yards in bunches and run up the score, no pun intended. Dak Prescott is on fire, so even though Carolina's secondary has been respectable, it's not likely enough to slow down this offense.

Perhaps the bigger issue is that it seems almost impossible that Bryce Young and this offense do anything against one of the better defenses in football. Seriously, if they can't complete passes against Chicago last week, how are they going to move the ball against Dallas?

The Cowboys could win by 30+ here, grab the 10.5 points.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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