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NFL Week 11 matchups: An insiders' guide
In Week 11, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes faces off against QB Philip Rivers and the Chargers in Mexico City on Monday night. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 11 matchups: An insiders' guide

Yardbarker's Sam Robinson and Michael Nania go deep inside NFL games each week, focusing on key numbers and roster issues. 

GLOSSARY: 

DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average): A method of evaluating teams, units or players in a comparative fashion. It takes every play during the NFL season and compares each to a league-average baseline based on situation.

EPA (Estimated Points Added): The measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. It represents the difference between a team's "expected points value" (the net point value a team can expect given a particular combination of down, distance and field position) before and after a play. 

Net Yards Per Pass Attempt: Passing yards per attempt adjusted for sack yardage. 

SCROLL DOWN OR GO TO YOUR GAME HERE:  Pitt.-Cleve. | Atlanta-Carolina | Dallas-Det. | Jax-Indy | Buffalo-Miami | Houston-Balt. | Den.-Minn. | NYJ-Wash. | N.O.-T.B. | Ariz.-S.F. | Cin.-Oak. | N.E.-Phila. | Chi.-LAR | K.C.-LAR


THURSDAY

Pittsburgh (5-4) at Cleveland (3-6), 8:20 p.m. ET

Inside Steelers numbers: The line has powered a defense that's first in the NFL with 7.9 quarterback hits per game. That pressure has helped lead to 12 fumble recoveries, three more than any other team. 

Inside Steelers roster: The NFL’s premier receiver-developing franchise has seen James Washington reel off his best stretch. Washington caught 10 passes for 159 yards over the past two games – by far the 2018 second-rounder’s best NFL stretch. QB Mason Rudolph’s former Oklahoma State teammate has shown more than sporadic deep-threat capabilities lately, and if he can keep this up, the Steelers’ trio of Washington, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson will represent another piece of a decades-long receiver pipeline.

Inside Browns numbers: The defense, ranked 27th in takeaway rate (8.5 percent), needs more big plays. Cleveland ranks sixth in sack rate (8.3 percent), but it must create pressure consistently. The Browns rank 16th in pressure rate (21.4 percent). 

Inside Browns roster: Only seven players remain on the active roster from Cleveland’s 0-16 team. This made the Browns’ decision to give center J.C. Tretter a three-year extension more interesting. In March 2017, the Browns fortified their interior O-line by signing Tretter and guard Kevin Zeitler and extending guard Joel Bitonio. With GM John Dorsey’s moves up front  unsuccessful, it makes sense to keep one of predecessor Sashi Brown’s proven line pieces.

SUNDAY

Atlanta (2-7) at Carolina (5-4), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Falcons numbers: In Week 10, Atlanta's defense, ranked last in sack rate, had six sacks against a Saints team ranked top-10 in fewest sacks allowed. The pressure rampage must continue against the Panthers, who have allowed the league's eighth-highest sack rate (8.2 percent). 

Inside Falcons roster: Chopping-block candidate Dan Quinn recently relinquished defensive play-calling duties. The fifth-year coach, who assumed the play-calling role in the offseason after firing defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel, split up the responsibility between linebackers coach Jeff Ulbrich and assistant head coach Raheem Morris. While Ulbrich has helped call first- and second-down plays for weeks, Morris – the ex-Buccaneers HC – was recently reassigned to make third-down calls. The new arrangement held the Saints without a touchdown against the Falcons for the first time in 22 years.

Inside Panthers numbers: Ron Rivera's run defense is atrocious, ranking last in yards per attempt (5.2), touchdowns (17), and EPA (-33.6). There is no excuse for that to continue against a Falcons team ranked bottom-10 in rushing yards per game (76.8), yards per attempt (3.8) and rushing touchdowns (3).

Inside Panthers roster: With Christian McCaffrey on pace for a team-record 329 carries – after he totaled 185 last season – Carolina added a more experienced backup. A week after the Panthers claimed wideout Donte Moncrief on waivers, they used the wire to nab ex-Seahawks and Bears running back Mike Davis. While the Bears gave Davis just 11 carries, he gained 512 rushing yards (4.6 per tote) with the 2018 Seahawks. The Panthers cut McCaffrey backup C.J. Anderson midway through last season, but with the MVP candidate shouldering an even bigger workload now, Davis should provide key relief.

Dallas (5-4) at Detroit (3-5-1), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Cowboys numbers: When the run game falters, the Cowboys struggle. They are 1-3 when rushing for under 4.0 yards per carry, 4-1 when rushing for above 5.0 yards per carry. RB Ezekiel Elliott must make big plays against Matt Patricia's run defense, which is ranked 27th in EPA (-5.2).

Inside Cowboys roster: Dallas has failed to beat quality teams with a loaded roster featuring QB Dak Prescott on a rookie deal. How will the Cowboys do once Prescott is making north of $33 million annually and WR Amari Cooper is on a top-market contract? The Cowboys’ offense leads the league in DVOA, but its defense – which feasted on bottom-tier offenses in most of its wins – has slipped to 20th. The core of what will be the Cowboys’ 2020 defense is already on the team, because of the expenses soon due. If the unit cannot ignite down the stretch, the future looks dimmer.

Inside Lions numbers: Detroit's passing attack averaged just 5.4 net yards per pass attempt under backup Jeff Driskel, a significantly lower mark than any game injured starter Matthew Stafford has played in 2019 (his season-low 6.3). Driskel must get Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola more involved; the trio combined for just 12 catches and 163 yards in Week 10 (season average 14 and 198). 

Inside Lions roster: Patricia’s pre-Patriots gig was as a Syracuse grad assistant, so it’s not surprising he stocked his Lions staff with ex-Orange assistants. But his defensive coordinator hire – ex-Syracuse head coach Paul Pasqualoni, who had been out of the NFL since 2015 – is overseeing an embattled unit. A successful college coach (and 2008-09 Dolphins DC), he led the No. 10-ranked total defense last season; it has dropped to 30th despite multiple high-priced additions. Will Patricia keep his defensive play-caller around in 2020 when his own job will likely be on the line?  

Jacksonville (4-5) at Indianapolis (5-4), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Jaguars numbers: Nick Foles must build on his late-season performance in 2018, when he posted his best regular-season QBR (67.4) and net yards per attempt rate (6.7) since 2013. To give Foles enough time, the offensive line needs to take advantage of a matchup against a Colts defense ranked 23rd in pressure rate (19.5 percent).

Inside Jaguars roster: Since Jacksonville’s 2017 season ended just shy of Super Bowl LII, Doug Marrone is 9-16. While Minshew Mania may have been a bit exaggerated – the Jaguars’ 2019 wins having come over the Bengals, Jets, Broncos and Titans – Marrone’s switch to Foles may put his job on the line. If the team plunges toward another sub-.500 season, the former Bills boss (35-40 in five-plus seasons as a head coach) may be a Black Monday headline. Foles’ work in Marrone’s offense will bring high stakes for the sake of staff continuity.

Inside Colts numbers: The offense is anemic without injured starting QB Jacoby Brissett, scoring only 24 points in the 19 drives it has had since his knee injury against the Steelers. The Colts desperately need him back against a disruptive Jacksonville front ranked fifth in sack rate (8.8 percent) and second in pressure rate (28 percent). 

Inside Colts roster: Indianapolis is 0-7 in games WR T.Y. Hilton does not play. With the eighth-year veteran doubtful for Week 11, the Colts must find a way to snap this skid. Devin Funchess (collarbone) is eligible to return from IR this week, and the Colts expect him to practice. The former Panthers wideout is 1-for-4 in recording at least 550 yards in a season. Although the Colts might not be keen on redeploying him now, the 6-foot-4 target could aid a young receiving corps.  


Bills QB Josh Allen. Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo (6-3) at Miami (2-7), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Bills numbers: Buffalo's offense, ranked 26th in points per drive (1.56), must play better. That all starts with Josh Allen, who is ranked 31st of 34 qualifiers in QBR (38.0). 

Inside Bills roster: Buffalo’s defense has excelled despite shaky run play and only one player (defensive tackle Jordan Phillips) having recorded more than 2.5 sacks. A key reason for the Bills’ defensive success over the past two years: safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. The latter was critical on Buffalo’s eight-play goal-line stand in Cleveland, and both back-liners rate as top-15 safeties in Pro Football Focus’ view. The NFL’s 20th- and 25th-highest-paid safeties, Hyde and Poyer are each signed through at least 2020.

Inside Dolphins numbers: Brian Flores' defense is rolling, allowing 14.0 points per game and forcing four turnovers (plus a safety) over its two-game winning streak. The secondary might be able to pounce on the Bills' passing attack, which is ranked 26th in first downs per game (11.0). 

Inside Dolphins roster: Despite the Bengals’ winless run, this is still the NFL’s worst roster. Yet the Dolphins have won two straight and were competitive in their previous three losses. The Bill Belichick coaching tree has given the league many uninspiring leaders, but Flores is showing his rapid rise – from 2017 linebackers coach to 2019 head coach – may be warranted. The Dolphins since August have lost their best three players – Laremy Tunsil, Xavien Howard, Minkah Fitzpatrick – and are now without RB Kenyan Drake (traded to Arizona) and Mark Walton (suspended). Miami may have picked the right man to oversee this experiment.    

Houston (6-3) at Baltimore (7-2), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Texans numbers: Houston is fifth in red-zone touchdown rate (65.7 percent) and sixth in third-down conversion rate (46.8 percent). The Texans' defense, on the other hand, ranks 30th in red-zone touchdown rate (66.7 percent) and 26th in third-down conversion rate (44.8 percent). 

Inside Texans roster: Lacking a viable tight end option since Owen Daniels’ 2012 Pro Bowl season, Houston has located one with an unusual backstory. On his fourth team in four years, the 33-year-old Darren Fells played basketball in Europe for years prior to giving tight end a try. Fells only has 245 receiving yards, but with six touchdowns, he’s given Deshaun Watson a key red-zone option. On a one-year deal worth $1.5 million, Fells has already matched the 18-year-old franchise’s season tight end touchdown record.

Inside Ravens numbers: An unheralded part of Lamar Jackson's MVP-caliber start is ball security. After averaging 1.75 fumbles per start in 2018 (losing six of 14), Jackson has averaged only 0.44 per start in 2019 (losing none of his four fumbles). He has not thrown an interception in seven of nine games.

Inside Ravens roster: CB Marcus Peters has 26 career interceptions -- a 10-INT lead on the rest of the NFL since 2015 – and has padded that total with two picks (each a pick-6) since being traded to the Ravens. The throwback ballhawk has improved Baltimore’s coverage work, with the unit that allowed 320-plus yards from Weeks 2-4 now ranking eighth in pass-defense DVOA. After mostly down 2017 and ’18 seasons, the aggressive cornerback is setting himself up for a monster 2020 payday. The Ravens have key free agents-to-be in Michael Pierce and Matt Judon; add Peters to the list.

Denver (3-6) at Minnesota (7-3), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Broncos numbers: Denver is clutch on defense, ranking second in the red zone (37 percent), fifth on fourth down (37.5 percent) and seventh on third down (34.2 percent). Powering that success is the duo of Von Miller and Derek Wolfe, who have combined for nine sacks and 18 hits over Denver's past six games. 

Inside Broncos roster: Although QB Brandon Allen notched a win in his NFL debut, Denver cannot afford to delay Drew Lock’s timetable for long. The second-round rookie will practice this week and likely come off IR soon. With Lock having missed much of his rookie season with a thumb injury, the Broncos will need to see as much of the Mizzou product as possible to determine if they need to make another big quarterback investment in the 2020 draft. The Broncos ignored a talented 2017 QB class because of Paxton Lynch; they will need more than a couple of Lock starts to make a proper evaluation.

Inside Vikings numbers: Ends Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen rank first and third in pressures with 64 and 56, respectively. They combined for 17 pressures against Dallas' elite offensive line in Week 10, so imagine what they could do against a Denver offense that has allowed the fourth-highest sack rate (9.6 percent). 

Inside Vikings roster: Dalvin Cook is on pace for 2,264 scrimmage yards; Adrian Peterson’s 2012 MVP season produced 2,314. A third-year back, Cook is on track for an All-Pro nod and a contract in the Ezekiel Elliott stratosphere. Minnesota could opt for caution, with Cook having missed 17 games from 2017-18 due to injury, but a team that has stacked its payroll with extensions will need to work on another soon with Cook’s contract not containing the fifth-year option Christian McCaffrey’s does. Cook’s production and low mileage (501 career touches) places him in a great negotiating spot.


Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins. Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

N.Y. Jets (2-7) at Washington (1-8), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Jets numbers: The defense has allowed 3.0 yards per rush attempt, the best mark through nine games since the 2010 Steelers. It will be tested by an improving Redskins rushing attack, ranked fourth in yards per attempt (5.1) since Week 5. 

Inside Jets roster: This team cannot catch a break on its offensive line. The Jets’ Kelechi Osemele mess aside, they have now seen turnover at four of their five O-line spots this season. A dislocated shoulder is expected to end right guard Brian Winters’ season, and with Winters attached to a non-guaranteed $7 million salary in 2020, new GM Joe Douglas may opt to move on. Of course, releasing Winters – a seven-year veteran and last remaining member of the D’Brickashaw Ferguson-Nick Mangold Jets lines – would create another need for a team without much certainty up front.

Inside Redskins numbers: Washington's abysmal offense has scored single-digits in six of its past seven games. Dwayne Haskins has a good chance to build some confidence against a Jets defense that has allowed at least 22 points in eight consecutive games. 

Inside Redskins roster: Washington has a combined $34.25 million in quarterback salaries set to not play in its final seven games. Interim coach Bill Callahan gave the reins to Haskins, who has not yet impressed but obviously needs time to develop. Washington has Case Keenum, Colt McCoy and Alex Smith on its 2019 cap sheet; Keenum and McCoy will likely be gone in 2020. While Smith may never play again, releasing him won’t save the Redskins money until 2021. With Haskins far from certain to pan out, this is one of the weirdest quarterback situations in recent memory. 

New Orleans (7-2) at Tampa Bay (3-6), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Saints numbers: New Orleans must get its pass protection back on track after allowing 18 pressures (six of those sacks) to a terrible Falcons defense in Week 10. Left guard is a question, as the status of Andrus Peat (arm) is up in the air and replacement Will Clapp was brutal in relief (two sacks allowed).

Inside Saints roster: New Orleans’ secondary has not played without Marshon Lattimore since midway through the 2017 season. With the Pro Bowl cornerback nursing a hamstring injury, the team will need to make do without its top cover man for a bit. This is a bad week to be shorthanded because the Buccaneers have the NFL’s best wideout tandem in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Saints have morphed from 2016’s 31st-ranked defense into one of the NFL’s best since Lattimore arrived in the 2017 first round.

Inside Bucs numbers: Bruce Arians deserves credit for pushing this Jameis Winston-led offense up to ninth in points per drive (2.18). If the Bucs can clean up the turnovers (17 over past four games), they could be a top-notch offense. 

Inside Bucs roster: A few stars and several reliable starters came off the board in the 2016 draft’s top 13 picks. Vernon Hargreaves now looks like the biggest mistake. The Bucs waived the underperforming cornerback this week, doing so after picking up his $9.9 million fifth-year option in May and using him as a starter throughout the season. Arians benched Hargreaves for not hustling on a long Cardinals gain, but this is another blow to the Bucs’ 32nd-ranked pass defense. Fifth-year options are guaranteed against injury only, so the Bucs will save $9M in 2020 by moving on now. 

Arizona (3-6-1) at San Francisco (8-1), 4:05 p.m. ET

Inside Cardinals numbers: Arizona has scored a touchdown on just 34.3 percent of red-zone trips, second worst in the league. Kyler Murray has thrown for a TD on just 16.3 percent of red-zone pass attempts (league average 22.3 percent). 

Inside Cardinals roster: As certain fantasy owners are aware, David Johnson’s fifth season is not going well. The league’s fourth-highest-paid running back is averaging 3.7 yards per carry – well behind Chase Edmonds and behind Kenyan Drake’s two Cardinals games – and has struggled with back and ankle injuries. Johnson missed almost all 2017 with a broken wrist, has only shown flashes of the player who pushed for a 1,000-1,000 season in 2016 and just saw Drake play ahead of him in crunch time. Johnson has a fully guaranteed $10.2 million salary in 2020, when he will count $14.2M on Arizona’s cap.

Inside 49ers numbers: San Francisco's top-ranked red-zone defense (31.3 percent) will be an issue for Kliff Kingsbury's Cardinals. The 49ers have allowed only three red-zone touchdown passes, behind only the Patriots for the fewest. 

Inside 49ers roster: Several key 49ers suffered injuries in Monday’s five-period grind, but one will not return this season. While Joe Staley, Emmanuel Sanders and Matt Breida are expected back, defensive lineman Ronald Blair suffered a torn ACL. Serving as a reliable backup on San Francisco’s stacked D-line, Blair had registered three sacks and graded as a top-25 edge defender, per Pro Football Focus. Although Blair’s contract expires at season’s end, the 49ers are expected to try to re-sign him.


Oakland QB Derek Carr. Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati (0-9) at Oakland (5-4), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Bengals numbers: Cincinnati is anemic in the trenches, ranking 29th in yards per rush attempt (3.3) and allowing the second-most yards per rush attempt  (5.2). The defense will have trouble with Oakland's Josh Jacobs, who has averaged the third-most yards after contact per rush (2.9).

Inside Bengals roster: Once a mainstay in the NFL’s basement, the Bengals have not been this bad since their final pre-Marvin Lewis season – a 2-14 2002 finish. Cincinnati’s defense is flush with veterans yet ranks last in yards yielded per game. The Bengals’ injury-riddled offense has scored 20 or more points twice, despite HC Zac Taylor being brought in to help in that area. Taylor’s last experience calling plays ended with the 2016 Cincinnati Bearcats’ offense ranked 123rd of 128 teams in scoring. The continuity-centric Bengals will likely give Taylor another year, but this is unfolding far worse than expected.

Inside Raiders numbers: Derek Carr has emerged as a Pro Bowl candidate, ranking sixth in passer rating (104.4) and ninth in QBR (63.3). He has benefited greatly from an offensive line that has made him the least-pressured quarterback in the league (26.1 percent of dropbacks).

Inside Raiders roster: Jon Gruden has jettisoned most of previous GM Reggie McKenzie’s investments, but Jalen Richard is making a case for another Raiders contract. The passing-down back has played well in Oakland’s past two wins, combining to catch five passes for 84 yards on just the final drives against the Lions and Chargers. Richard’s shiftiness complements Josh Jacobs’ every-down work; the contract-year undrafted free agent would make sense as a longer-term Jacobs backup.  

New England (8-1) at Philadelphia (5-4), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Patriots numbers: New England's run game is awful, ranking 30th in EPA (-39.0). The Patriots need more from Sony Michel, who ranks last among running backs in yards after contact per rush (1.3). 

Inside Patriots roster: New England’s left tackle situation has not been this unstable since the 1980s. The Patriots have passed the blindside baton from Bruce Armstrong (left tackle from 1990-2000) to Matt Light (2001-11) to Nate Solder (2012-17) to Trent Brown, but next-in-line Isaiah Wynn’s injury troubles have resulted in journeyman Marshall Newhouse working there. After Wynn missed his rookie season with an Achilles tear, he encountered turf toe in Week 2. He can return to action this week, if the Pats deem him ready, and that would stand to benefit a team that almost always deploys a top-tier O-line.

Inside Eagles numbers: Doug Pederson's offense has struggled a bit, ranking 19th in net yards per pass attempt (6.0) and yards per rush attempt (4.2). 

Inside Eagles roster: Brandon Brooks has bounced back stunningly quickly from a January Achilles tear, grading as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 offensive lineman by a significant margin. The Eagles rewarded the 30-year-old guard with a four-year extension that will make him the NFL’s highest-paid guard. The $14.05 million-per-year deal marks a $6M-average annual value spike for Brooks, and it locks in four members of an elite O-line through at least the 2021 season. Philadelphia has extended Brooks, All-Pro center Jason Kelce and left guard Isaac Seumalo this year.


Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago (4-5) at L.A. Rams (5-4), 8:20 p.m. ET

Inside Bears numbers: QB Mitchell Trubisky ranks last in yards per attempt (5.8). As a team, Chicago has picked up a first down on just 27.6 percent of passing plays, better than only the Redskins and Jets. 

Inside Bears roster: A gruesome elbow injury places Danny Trevathan’s season in jeopardy. A member of both of the Broncos’ recent Super Bowl defenses, the eighth-year off-ball linebacker has missed 11 games due to injury in his four-year Bears run. Trevathan, 29, is a free agent at season’s end. Roquan Smith’s new running mate, Nick Kwiatkoski, looks like an overqualified fill-in, however. The fourth-year linebacker has played only 109 snaps, but he has two sacks, a forced fumble and an interception in his limited work.

Inside Rams numbers: Los Angeles' offensive line is struggling; Jared Goff is the fifth-most pressured quarterback (38.9 percent of dropbacks) and his QBR (38.2) is 30th in the league.

Inside Rams roster: Los Angeles’ beleaguered O-line will face a steeper challenge soon. Center Brian Allen will miss the rest of the season with an MCL injury, and right tackle Rob Havenstein will be out for at least a week with a meniscus issue. The Rams’ offensive lines of 2017 and ’18 drove Todd Gurley to All-Pro honors and elevated Goff’s career. After the Rams released center John Sullivan and let Rodger Saffold defect to the Titans, these injuries put the team’s offense in the worst place it has been since Sean McVay took over.  

MONDAY

 Kansas City (6-4) at L.A. Chargers (4-6), 8:15 p.m. ET (Mexico City)

Inside Chiefs numbers: Patrick Mahomes is even more efficient than he was in 2018, leading the league in net yards per pass attempt (8.5) and owning the lowest interception rate (0.3 percent). Kansas City's issues are on defense, where it ranks 23rd in points per drive (2.22). 

Inside Chiefs roster: Frank Clark gave a reason for his slow Kansas City start; it does not bode well for the Chiefs’ pass rush. The trade acquisition revealed he has been dealing with a pinched nerve in his neck since training camp and said that has limited him during games. Considering Clark underwent wrist surgery in 2018 and dealt with elbow ligament trouble last season, this is not a good sign – especially when the Chiefs just lost fellow defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah for the season. Clark recorded 13 sacks and 27 QB hits last year; the $20.5 million-per-year D-end has four and five, respectively, as a Chief.

Inside Chargers numbers: The Chargers have lost six one-score games, two more than any other team. Los Angeles' -6 turnover differential, tied for sixth worst, is a primary reason it has won only two of its eight one-score contests.

Inside Chargers roster: Injuries continue to constrain the Bolts. After a months-long battle with blood clots, OT Russell Okung battles a groin strain that forced him out of Los Angeles’ Week 10 game after seven snaps. With Okung’s status uncertain for a Chargers do-or-die game, their tackle arrangement will look grimmer in Mexico. Right tackle Sam Tevi underwent arthroscopic surgery, meaning the combination of third-round rookie Trey Pipkins and previous Okung backup Trent Scott would serve as the Bolts’ left and right tackles.

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