NFL Week 11: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns, betting picks, preview

After fighting to get that win in Baltimore last week, the Cleveland Browns received bad news with quarterback Deshaun Watson ruled out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. That puts the ball back in the hands of PJ Walker (maybe). Against Pittsburgh that might not be as terrible a situation as this is likely a very low-scoring game. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Trends and Odds

Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023 —  1 p.m. ET  
Odds: Cleveland -1, Over/under 33, Pittsburgh -105 | Cleveland -115

Even with the uncertainty at quarterback for Cleveland, they are small favorites at home this Sunday. That is a lot of belief in their defense. This is a super-low point total, and in a game that is not going to feature much scoring, that line is probably not going to move all that much. Most people looking at this one are going to go with the moneyline. 

Picks for Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

Pittsburgh ML; Cleveland Under 15.5 Points (+115)

I am hearing some buzz that the Browns might turn to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson on Sunday. I am not sure the strategy given they were all right with Walker at QB earlier in the season. Maybe they just want to be more athletic at the position, which would make sense because the Steelers and their stingy defense are going to put whoever is in the pivot for Pittsburgh in some tough spots. Cleveland, which also has a strong defense is going to do the same to QB Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense but I feel a little more confident that Pittsburgh can avoid those game-killing mistakes. I like the spot overall too. Cleveland had a big emotional win last week and now they have to rally around a different quarterback. They are due for a letdown. Plus there is all that Tomlin as an underdog stuff in your favor on the Pittsburgh side of the equation. 

In terms of the prop, I was looking for the lowest point total I could get with Cleveland that would still have a positive payoff. I thought I would have to settle for something like 13.5 points so I was pleasantly surprised. I know they are at home but they are going to struggle to move the ball all game long. My real fear is that the defense really sets them up or scores itself. 

So far the markets are more interested in backing Pittsburgh. That is no surprise and I expect that to continue to the point that they might be favored by kickoff. Now is the time to lock them in and I would stick with the moneyline so you don't drive yourself crazy trying to get the best number when a SU win gets us there anyway.