NFL Week 12 betting guide

Week 12 of the NFL season is almost here, but before you finalize your betting card for the slate, we've got you covered with our comprehensive betting guide with predictions and matchups to target with props. 

Let's get right into it, and best of luck in Week 12!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Thursday, Nov. 21, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Spread: Steelers -3.5
Total: 36.5

The Steelers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, as they've won four straight games since Russell Wilson took over and just knocked off the Baltimore Ravens to take command of the AFC North. 

The Wilson-George Pickens connection has transformed this offense, but Pittsburgh's second-ranked scoring defense is what makes this team go.

This could be a tricky matchup against Jameis Winston, who's thrown for 964 yards and six touchdowns through three starts. If Winston can take care of the ball and Myles Garrett can cause some havoc on the other side of the ball, the Steelers could be on upset alert.

Mismatch to exploit: Steelers run defense vs. Nick Chubb

Chubb is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and 39.6 rushing yards per game this season, and the Steelers rank fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (90.8). Take a look at Chubb's rushing yards under.

Prediction: Browns 19, Steelers 16

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, Nov. 24, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Lions -7.5
Total: 50.5

This one should be fun. The Lions are must-watch television right now, as they proved last week when they put up 52 points in a blowout win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Thanks to its No. 1-ranked scoring offense, Detroit is now the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl (+340) for the first time in franchise history.

The Colts could be building a late-season charge here. Anthony Richardson returned to the starting lineup last week and had his best game of the season with 304 total yards and three touchdowns. Indy still has issues on defense, but it could keep up with Detroit if Richardson continues to play well.

Mismatch to exploit: Jameson Williams vs. Colts secondary

The Colts give up a ton of explosive passing plays, and Williams is one of the best home-run hitters in the NFL, with his 22.4 yards per catch. Check out Williams to go over his longest reception prop. 

Prediction: Lions 31, Colts 27

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Sunday, Nov. 24, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Dolphins -7.5
Total: 46

The Patriots are coming off a loss to the Los Angeles Rams, but Drake Maye logged another strong performance with 282 passing yards and two touchdowns on a season-best 74.4 percent passing. The offensive line in front of Maye is finally getting healthy, as guard Cole Strange returned to practice this week.

The Dolphins still aren't out of the playoff race in the AFC after back-to-back wins. Tua Tagovailoa is getting the ball out quickly and letting his explosive playmakers do the rest while the defense is hitting its stride with the return of Zach Sieler.

Mismatch to exploit: Dolphins run defense vs. Patriots run offense

The Patriots have struggled to open up holes for Rhamondre Stevenson all year, and the Dolphins have given up only 130 total rushing yards in two games since Sieler returned. Check out Stevenson's under rushing yards. 

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Patriots 22

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, Nov. 24, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Vikings -3.5
Total: 39.5

What a demoralizing loss for the Bears in a season full of them, as the Green Bay Packers blocked the game-winning field-goal attempt to win their 11th straight game against Chicago. 

The good news is Caleb Williams looked much more comfortable and decisive under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown.

The Vikings will look to test Williams' development by putting heavy pressure on him all game. On the other side of the ball, the matchup between Justin Jefferson and Jaylon Johnson could end up deciding the game. 

Mismatch to exploit: Vikings defensive line vs. Bears offensive line

The Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate (37.7 percent) and rank third in sacks (35) this season, and the Bears have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Check out some sack props or Williams to throw an interception.

Prediction: Vikings 20, Bears 17

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday, Nov. 24, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Chiefs -10.5
Total: 43

The 1972 Dolphins breathed a sigh of relief last week when the Chiefs finally dropped their first game of the season to the Buffalo Bills to fall to 9-1. 

Kansas City was past due for a loss, though, as it ranks just 14th in defensive EPA/play (expected points added per play) and 10th in offensive EPA/play.

This should be a good bounce-back spot against the Panthers, who have been lucky to rattle off two straight wins against the New Orleans Saints and New York Giants. This is a much tougher test for Bryce Young against Steve Spagnuolo's unpredictable defense. 

Mismatch to exploit: Panthers rush defense vs. Kareem Hunt

The Panthers rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (160.1) and 31st in rushing touchdowns allowed per game (1.7). Look for Hunt to go over his rushing yards prop and/or find the end zone.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Panthers 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

Sunday, Nov. 24, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Buccaneers -5.5
Total: 41.5

It's Tommy Cutlets time in New York! That's right, the Giants have decided to bench Daniel Jones and replace him with third-string QB Tommy DeVito instead of backup Drew Lock. 

DeVito went 3-3 in six starts last season but finished the year with a 23.7 QBR. This might not be the solution the Giants are looking for.

The Buccaneers have a major advantage at quarterback with Baker Mayfield running the show, and he should be getting star wide receiver Mike Evans back this week. Tampa Bay is much healthier coming off its bye week, and it needs a win to stay within reach of the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South.

Mismatch to exploit: Rachaad White vs. Giants rush defense

White has played more than 60 percent of the team's snaps in back-to-back games, and he should run well against a Giants defense that gives up the most yards per rush (5.3) in the NFL. Check out his rushing yards over.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Giants 16

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

Sunday, Nov. 24, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Commanders -10.5
Total: 45.5

There's an argument to be made that the Cowboys are the worst team in the NFL right now. Dallas has been outscored 68-16 since Cooper Rush took over for an injured Dak Prescott. To make matters worse, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, two starting offensive linemen and two starting linebackers are questionable to play this week.

The Commanders have dropped two straight to lose their NFC East lead to the Philadelphia Eagles. Jayden Daniels still seems to be nursing the rib injury he suffered in Week 7, and he hasn't been the same rushing threat since. That could be a problem with Micah Parsons flying off the edge. 

Mismatch to exploit: Brian Robinson Jr. vs. Cowboys rush defense

The Cowboys have given up 328 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks alone. Check out Robinson to go over his rushing yards prop and find the end zone.

Prediction: Commanders 27, Cowboys 13

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Sunday, Nov. 24, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Texans -8.5
Total: 42

It's been a depressing season for the Titans, who are 2-8 and a league-worst 1-9 against the spread through 10 games. The defense continues to play valiantly even without L'Jarius Sneed in the lineup, but Will Levis can't generate enough offense to keep Tennessee competitive. 

As for the Texans, they finally got Nico Collins back on the field and promptly put up their highest point total (34) since Week 6 against the Patriots. They could also get some reinforcements back on the defensive side, as Will Anderson Jr. returned to practice this week.

Mismatch to exploit: Texans defense vs. Will Levis

The Texans rank second in opponent interception rate (3.9 percent), and Levis has thrown eight picks in seven games this year. Check out Levis to throw an interception.

Prediction: Texans 23, Titans 17

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, Nov. 24, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Broncos -5.5
Total: 41

Denver's offense has struggled against the top teams on the schedule, but Bo Nix has shredded bad defenses all season. Denver scored 33.0 points per game against the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints over the last few weeks, and it put up 34 points in its first matchup against the Raiders.

Las Vegas is in big trouble on the injury front, as none of its top three cornerbacks have practiced this week. The only bright spot for the Raiders has been rookie tight end Brock Bowers, who torched the Dolphins for 126 yards and a touchdown last week. 

Mismatch to exploit: Bo Nix vs. Raiders secondary

We saw Nix go up against a banged-up Falcons secondary last week, putting up 304 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. Look for a similar performance against another injured cornerback room.

Prediction: Broncos 29, Raiders 20

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, Nov. 24, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Seahawks -1
Total: 47.5

This is a crucial matchup in the crowded NFC West, as the Cardinals currently hold a slim one-game lead over every other team in the division. 

The Seahawks kept up with the pack thanks to a last-minute win against the San Francisco 49ers last week. DK Metcalf put up seven catches for 70 yards in his return to the field.

The Cardinals are coming off their bye week and haven't lost since Oct. 13. Arizona has dominated its last two games by a combined score of 60-15 while not allowing a single touchdown.

Mismatch to exploit: James Conner vs. Seahawks rush defense

The Seahawks rank 25th in yards allowed per rush (4.8), and defensive lineman Leonard Williams hasn't practiced this week. Check out Conner's rushing yards over. 

Prediction: Cardinals 26, Seahawks 23

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, Nov. 24, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Packers -2.5
Total: 47.5

You don't see the 49ers priced as underdogs very often, but they're entering this game with a concerning injury report. Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Trent Williams are all dealing with injuries. Purdy's right shoulder issue and Bosa's hip injury are the most concerning.

The Packers aren't a beacon of health, either, as Josh Jacobs, two starting offensive linemen and four defensive starters are listed as questionable for this game. Keep an eye on the actives and inactives before betting on this game. 

Mismatch to exploit: Brock Purdy vs. uncertainty

Purdy's right shoulder injury might be worse than the team is letting on. This could be a great live-betting game if he struggles to throw the ball early. 

Prediction: Packers 27, 49ers 23

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, Nov. 24, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Spread: Eagles -2.5
Total: 48.5

Don't look now, but the Eagles might just have the best defense in the NFL right now. After another strong performance against the Commanders, Philadelphia's defense now ranks No. 1 in yards allowed per game, EPA/play and success rate since Week 6.

The Rams are a completely different offense with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field, so this is an intriguing matchup between an efficient passing offense and a lockdown secondary.

Mismatch to exploit: Quinyon Mitchell vs. Puka Nacua

Mitchell has been shutting down WR1s all season, which is why the Eagles give up the fewest receiving yards per game to wideouts (116.5). Check out Nacua's under receiving yards.

Prediction: Eagles 23, Rams 22

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Monday, Nov. 25, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Ravens -3
Total: 49.5

The Ravens are coming off a brutal loss to the Steelers to fall behind in the AFC North race. This team still has a sky-high ceiling as long as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are running the show, but its 32nd-ranked passing defense gives the offense no margin for error.

The Chargers nearly blew an 18-point halftime lead against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but their ability to bounce back and put together a game-winning drive shows how different this team is with Jim Harbaugh in charge.  

Mismatch to exploit: Justin Herbert vs. Ravens secondary

The Chargers have transitioned to a pass-heavy offense, as Herbert is averaging 268.0 passing yards over his last six games. He should be able to light it up against Baltimore.

Prediction: Ravens 29, Chargers 24