Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) calls the play. Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 12: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders, betting picks, preview

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 11/24/23

Kansas City probably should have won last week against Philadelphia. They didn't though and hitting the road when things are a little off is less than ideal. That is what is going on with the Chiefs, whose offense is not quite clicking, putting pressure on everything else of course. Las Vegas has shown some life since they fired their coach and if they win this week they will be at .500, and just a win behind KC.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Trends and Odds

Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023 — 4:25 p.m. ET
Odds: Kansas City -8.5, Over/under 42.5, Kansas City -395 | Las Vegas +310

Even after the poor performance, the Chiefs are getting a lot of respect from the market in this spot. That is a very big spread for a road team to cover in the NFL and it might as well be 10 points, really. Kansas City has won five straight against the Raiders and only two were close. The Chiefs did cover a -9 on the road last January.

Picks for Kansas City vs. Las Vegas

Over 42.5, Travis Kelce 80+ Yards (+130)

The last seven times the Chiefs and Raiders have played the Chiefs have scored at least 30 points. Those games have gone 5-2 O/U. I am looking for more of the same in this matchup. Sure, things have changed some in Vegas lately, but I am more focused on Kansas City using this game to get its offense back on track.

All season long they have been stuck in second gear and now is the time to tinker with it and get it back on a path to where we can count on it week after week and it is humming for the playoffs. I just believe in the combo of quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid. Off a loss they are going to be committed to getting it right. As for Vegas, as long as they can contribute at least 10 points we are solid.

As part of their plans to get the offense right they have to get Kelce more involved. He has not had even as much as 60 yards over the last three games. I do not want to say he is due but when he is productive the rest of the offense grows from there. The value is here.

If you like K.C. side, the smart thing to do is to tease this one down. As for my total play, think the number could come down but it is OK where it is. The weather won't be an issue.

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