NFL Week 13 betting guide: MNF pick

MNF: New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Tampa Bay -4

Total: 40.5 points

Tampa is another team that just keeps on hitting their under, now 9-2 on the season. These two teams met in September, and the total reached just 30. Their previous meeting last December saw the Saints win 9-0. Yeah, we're taking the under to wrap Week 13.

Betting: Under 40.5 points

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Minnesota -3

Total: 44.5 points

The Jets defense is so good, that despite hitting the road against the 9-2 Vikings with Mike White as their quarterback, New York is your standard three-point road dog. We respect what the Jets are building, but Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson should be able to take care of business here at home.

Betting: Vikings -3

Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Total: 44 points

The Titans have allowed the second-most touchdowns to WRs this season, and AJ Brown is suiting up for the first game against his former team. Brown has not been shy about what seems to have been a sour ending between player and franchise, and we're backing the revenge angle here in Philly.

Betting: AJ Brown TD (+120 DK)

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

Spread: Cleveland -7

Total: 47.5 points

It's hard to not at least be intrigued by what happens here, as this will be Deshaun Watson's first NFL game in nearly two years, and of course it's in Houston against his former team. Are there enough Texans fans to make this ugly at home? We'd expect the boos to rain down, and kind of want to back them.

Betting: Texans +7

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

Spread: Washington -2.5

Total: 40 points

We're liking the Commanders to take advantage of a depleted Giants offensive line, especially with Chase Young set to make his return. Washington has covered the spread in six of their last seven games.

Betting: Commanders -2.5

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Baltimore -9.5

Total: 39.5 points

There has been no more profitable betting strategy in the NFL this season than betting Broncos unders. Denver is 10-1 to the under on the year, and luckily for us, the total has started to go up from 38.5 earlier this week. The Ravens are a solid under team as well, 7-4, and this is a betting angle we have to continue deploying in Denver games.

Betting: Under 39.5 points

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Spread: Jacksonville -1

Total: 51 points

The Lions have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season, and Jacksonville's Zay Jones deserves far more attention than he's gotten. Over the past two weeks, Trevor Lawrence has targeted Jones 24 times, yielding 213 yards. Give us Jones to take advantage of this weak Detroit pass defense.

Betting: Zay Jones over 50.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Atlanta -1

Total: 42.5 points

We see two teams here who are vulnerable to touchdowns scored in a variety of ways and two secondaries that get gashed by the long ball. Tack on two mobile quarterbacks, and this one could actually be fun to watch. We're taking points in what seems to be a sloppy game coming.

Betting: Over 42.5 points

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Green Bay -3.5

Total: 44.5 points

Chicago has gone over their points total in six straight games, and now we get Justin Fields back on the field. Green Bay allowed 40 points and over 350 yards on the ground to Philadelphia last week, making this a potentially smash spot for Chicago to find points. The Packers should have no issues scoring either, so we'll just bet on touchdowns and worry less about who it is involved.

Betting: Over 44.5 points

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: San Francisco -4

Total: 46.5 points

This is quite the litmus test for two teams that appear to be serious Super Bowl contenders. We'd prefer to just sit back and enjoy the action, as this could go either way. One betting angle we see revolves around George Kittle. The Dolphins have allowed the third-most touchdowns to tight ends, and Kittle has found the end zone four times over the past five weeks.

Betting: George Kittle TD (+175 CZR)

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Seattle -7

Total: 41 points

Who would have thought we'd see the Geno Smith-led Seahawks as a touchdown favorite on the road against the Rams in December, but such is the season we have had. The Rams are toast, now adding Aaron Donald to the list of players not playing this weekend. Back Seattle in a blowout.

Betting: Seahawks -7

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Kansas City -1.5

Total: 52.5 points

We've got two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL squaring off in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship with Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. We're looking Burrow's way here for some betting value, the Chiefs are allowing the most passing touchdowns per game this season, and the 52.5 over/under suggests fireworks are coming in Cincinnati. With Ja'Marr Chase expected back, we're projecting plenty of passing touchdowns. Burrow tossed 6 TDs in two games against KC last season, and we're betting he throws for 3+ on Sunday at +165.

Betting: Joe Burrow over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+165 MGM)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Las Vegas -1

Total: 50 points

Is this a trap line? The Chargers have been one of the best teams ATS this season, and the Raiders are 4-8 and fresh off two OT wins. Surely Los Angeles is the better team and should best Las Vegas here, right? This line feels fishy, but we're taking the bait.

Betting: Chargers +1

Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Dallas -10

Total: 44 points

Well the Jeff Saturday magic wore off a bit quickly on Monday night, and this isn't looking like the most exciting Sunday night game in the world. Dallas remains one of the NFL's best teams against the spread and should be able to wreak havoc on a weak Colts offensive line.

Betting: Cowboys -10