NFL Week 14: These trends can help you cash in

We're deep into the NFL season now, which means more and more betting trends are worth taking stock of in advance of a new week on the gridiron. 

This week's study looks at the best and worst betting teams and which games in Week 14 offer some overlap opportunity. There's a whole bunch this week.

NFL against the spread betting trends

Best teams ATS

1. Philadelphia Eagles (7-3-2)
2. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
4. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
5. Detroit Lions (8-4)
6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
7. Miami Dolphins (8-4)
8. Minnesota Vikings (7-4-1)

No real change at the top here. The Eagles remain the best ATS team despite their blowout loss in Week 13. We'll see a battle of two of the best betting teams when Philadelphia visits Dallas on Sunday. The Jags figure to falter here ATS with C.J. Beathard at QB, while the Colts and Gardner Minshew are on a truly remarkable run against all expectations.

Worst teams ATS

1. New England Patriots (2-10)
2. New Orleans Saints (2-9-1)
3. Carolina Panthers (2-8-2)
4. Atlanta Falcons (4-8)
5. Buffalo Bills (4-8)
6. New York Giants (4-7-1)
7. New York Jets (4-7-1)
8. Denver Broncos (4-7-1)

The Patriots have emerged as the league's worst team ATS, now a shocking 2-10 on the season. The NFC South rounds out the bottom-five, sans Tampa Bay, and the AFC East also has three representatives among the NFL's worst betting teams.

Week 14 overlaps

N/A this week. Fret not, we more than make up for it in the below trends for over/unders.

NFL over/under betting trends

Best teams: Overs

1. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
2. Detroit Lions (8-4)
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
4. Washington Commanders (8-5)
5. Chicago Bears (7-5)
6. Miami Dolphins (7-5)
7. San Francisco 49ers (7-5)
8. Cleveland Browns (7-5)
9. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)

After having only a few teams for most of the season going over in two or more games than not, we're starting to see scoring rise a bit. That, or the lines are much lower due to the trends of this season. Either way, we've got nine teams going over in at least 58% of their games.

Best teams: Unders

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-2)
2. New England Patriots (9-3)
3. Las Vegas Raiders (9-3)
4. New York Giants (9-3)
5. Minnesota Vikings (9-3)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-3)
7. Carolina Panthers (8-4)
8. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
9. New Orleans Saints (8-4)
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-4)
11. Tennessee Titans (8-4)
12. Buffalo Bills (8-4)
13. New York Jets (8-4)
14. Atlanta Falcons (8-4)

Nearly half the NFL is still going under in two thirds of their games or more. Interestingly, only four of these teams would be playoff teams if the season ended today. 

Quarterback injuries and uncertain QB rooms in general could certainly be a reason for so many unders this season. The Steelers, Patriots, Raiders, Giants, Vikings, Saints, Titans, Jets and Falcons have all trotted out multiple quarterbacks this season at some point, in some cases three different passers.

Week 14 overlaps

Overs: 

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (41.5 points) — This feels far too low to us, don't you think? We've got two of the best over teams in the NFL who combined for 57 points just a few weeks ago. Three straight meetings have seen 50+ points.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (53 points) — This should be fun on Sunday night. The first meeting saw 51 total points. Last year's game in Dallas saw 74 total points scored, and in fact, the two meetings prior in Dallas also went over, finishing with 62 and 54 points.

Unders: 

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (30 points) — This "TNF" game figures to stink out loud, and the 30-point over/under is indicative of that. We've already played this game in a few ways, if you're interested in some +210 and +320 plays.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (37.5 points) — These two met in September and the total ended at 37, so this line is right on that. Five straight meetings have gone under this total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (39 points) — There's a lot of divisional games this week, it seems. The first time these NFC South foes met this season, the total hit only 29. It's hard to see these offenses suddenly coming alive.

Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders (40 points) — If ever an under trend game to take the over, this kind of feels like the one. The Raiders defense has not been anything special, and the presence of Joshua Dobbs still does make us think the unexpected could be coming.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (47.5 points) — It's surprising to see both Buffalo and Kansas City here as teams hitting the under so frequently. Kansas City's under trend has been because of their defense and a lackluster offense, while Buffalo just keeps turning the ball over. Last time these two played was October 2022. The total hit 44 that day. The three games prior all saw 58+ points. Our hearts tell us the over,  but the numbers say otherwise.