NFL Week 16: Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins betting picks, preview

The Dallas Cowboys are fresh off a blowout loss, while the Miami Dolphins just picked up an easy 30-0 win over their own. Are these two teams going in different directions, or will we be in for a Cowboys win in Miami?

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins: Betting Odds

Spread: Miami -1, Over/under: 50 points, Dallas -108 | Miami -112

Dallas fell to Buffalo in Week 15, 31-10, and the game was never really that close. Josh Allen hardly threw the ball and the Bills still cruised to victory. The Cowboys were humming before that, though they are undefeated at home, which obviously means the road is where they struggle most.

Dallas is 10-4 and tied for first in the NFC East with no room to spare against an Eagles team that has a very soft schedule to wrap the season.

Miami destroyed the Jets 30-0, righting the ship after a last-second defeat to the Tennessee Titans the week prior. Tua Tagovailoa and this offense have found numerous ways to beat teams and will remain a challenge here for Dallas.

The Dolphins and Cowboys are both 9-5 ATS, and they're also both 8-6 to the over this season.

Betting Picks for Dallas vs. Miami

Dolphins moneyline (-112)

Dallas is just a different team on the road. At home, they're 7-0, but on the road they're just 3-4, including last week's ugly loss to Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have lost just one game at home this season and have momentum on their side after that blowout win.

Buffalo perhaps laid the foundation for how to beat the Cowboys: run it down their throats. That should be no issue at all for a Dolphins team led by Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane at running back. Even if Dallas devotes more attention to slowing down the Dolphins backs, that just means Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will have more single coverage.

We're just going to keep fading Dallas on the road, and with the Dolphins holding on to a tight AFC East lead, they should come out ready for a big game and take this one at home.