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NFL Week 16: Four fantastic player props for Christmas Eve
We hope you're gearing up for a terrific holiday weekend with family, and we've got a pile of picks gift-wrapped for your Christmas Eve NFL action.
Four players in particular look simply fantastic for Sunday.
David Njoku over 49.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
Houston's secondary just keeps climbing up my ranks as it relates to the best groups to target. They're allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt, the sixth-most passes of 20+ yards, and DVOA grades them out as a bottom-10 secondary.
You look a bit further, and you see that they're allowing the second-most receptions to tight ends, so naturally, we turn to David Njoku here.
It's nice that this defensive vulnerability is coinciding with such an explosion of late, as Joe Flacco and Njoku are building quite the rapport. Over the past two games, Njoku has 195 total yards, with 90+ both games. He's now logged 50+ yards in seven of his last nine games, and three straight TEs have covered their yardage prop against Houston. Let's keep that rolling.
Trey McBride over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
Chicago is allowing the fourth-most receptions per game to tight ends, which is all I needed to see to turn to Trey McBride, a true volume hog in this Arizona offense of late.
McBride is averaging 9.0 targets per game over his last five, catching 7.6 balls for 85 yards/game in that stretch.
I've gone back and forth on how to play McBride here, but with a 6.5 receptions line, I think the better pivot is to simply go to his yards.
When McBride catches 7+ balls, he's over this line in a perfect 6-6, averaging 92.5 yards/game.
Rachaad White over 24.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
No team allows more receptions to running backs than Jacksonville, which tends to lead to big receiving efforts from opposing backs, as you surely would have guessed.
Four straight starting RBs have gone over their yardage totals against the Jaguars, and 11 running backs have hit this number in 14 Jacksonville games this season.
Welcome to the fold Rachaad White, who sees a steady dose of targets for the Buccaneers. He's over this line in seven of his last nine games, and he's averaged 46.2 receiving yards per game over the last five in which he's logged 3+ receptions.
Chuba Hubbard over 68.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)
This one is quite simple for me. The Green Bay run defense is no good. They're allowing the fourth-most yards per game to opposing RBs, the second-most yards per rush, and DVOA has them ranked 26th against the run.
Chuba Hubbard is the clear man to take advantage, he's taken over this backfield in Carolina. He's taken 22+ carries in three straight, finishing with 101, 87 and 87 yards.
Eight straight running backs have gone over against the Packers. I don't see that changing here.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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