NFL Week 16: Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons betting picks, preview

The Colts got a big win last week. They are definitely still in the hunt in the AFC and might even be a division winner, even though it seems little has gone according to plan this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons are lucky to be in a division where anything is possible, even losing to Carolina and making the playoffs. They are two games under .500 but not out yet. 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends and Odds

Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023 —  1 p.m. ET
Odds: Atlanta -1, Over/under 44.5, Indianapolis -115 | Atlanta -105

It is surprising that you can lose to the worst team in the league and then be favorites the following week. I am not sure what Atlanta has done to deserve that, even though I sometimes like their personnel. Too much so I guess, because they keep burning me. Sportsbooks are worried about home 'dogs so I think they made the Falcons token favorites to avoid it. 

Picks for Indianapolis vs. Atlanta

Atlanta -1; Neither team to score 25 Points +125

The Falcons are going with a change at quarterback. That is not necessarily a good thing though as they have not won with Taylor Heinicke this season. Nevertheless, there is still a lot to play for so a change makes sense given recent results. Atlanta actually has a pretty good collection of skill players and I like the idea of refocusing the offense and the substitution at QB after the bad loss against Carolina. I am leaning into the coach at home being able to find something that can work with consistency and taking advantage of his defense that is surprisingly top ten. Atlanta is giving up less than 20 ppg this season. It is not going to be pretty but in a must-have game, sticking with the home side makes sense. 

The best approach for Atlanta is to lean into their running game and keep this one as much of a grinder as possible. They have the offensive and defensive personnel to do so and I am not expecting Indianapolis to explode. I see a final score in the range of 20-17. I am not buying into Indy's results from last week where the game got away from Pittsburgh.  
This game might not be sexy, but it is important so it should have a decent handle. With the home team favored by such a small margin, there are a lot of ways for this one to go. I think we might even get a better number if we wait as folks remember what these teams did last week.