NFL Week 16: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs betting picks, preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are leading the AFC West, but they are not the dominant team in the AFC this season. They are looking to close strong to build momentum for another Super Bowl run though and should never be discounted. The outlook for the Las Vegas Raiders is less optimistic. They got a bump when they replaced their head coach, but one more loss probably means they are going to be more focused on the NFL Draft than the playoffs. 

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends and Odds  

Monday, Dec. 25, 2023 —  1 p.m. ET
Odds: Kansas City -10, Over/under 41, Las Vegas +390 | Kansas City -520

This is a big spread, especially for a team that has struggled to score as they have in the past. This is the third time the Chiefs have been heavy favorites (10 or more points) and they are just 2-1 ATS after not covering against the Patriots last week. With the number sitting on a key figure, moving it might be tough but we have the whole weekend of action to do so. Plus this is part of a rare three-game schedule on Monday — Merry Christmas! 

Picks for Las Vegas vs. Kansas City

Over 41; Michael Mayer 40+ Receiving Yards (+185)

Kansas City has not had the same offensive punch since top receiver Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami, but they are not a bad offensive team — they are eighth in yards and 11th in points. In the last month, they have been favored by more than a touchdown twice and both of those games have gone over the total. One of those was a game at the Raiders that they won 31-17 and I am having a hard time figuring out why this game should be significantly lower scoring than that tilt. Kansas City is still trying to figure out their offense, but if they can match that point total again we do not need a ton from the Raiders to get the over. 

Mayer is just the third leading receiver on the Raiders. He has had a couple of nice games in his rookie season, but now is the time to force-feed him and see what you really have if you are Vegas. Plus Kansas City is often aggressive with their blitzes so he can be an easy outlet option. 

This is one of the biggest spreads of this long NFL weekend and it is ripe for teasing as you can bring it across a couple of key numbers if you want. This game is on Christmas Day which is interesting too. I am not sure if that is good or bad for the handle, but it is something to be aware of. In terms of the total, which I like, the market is in agreement with the over, both on the ticket count and money.