NFL Week 17: Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens betting picks, preview

This game has massive playoff implications in the AFC. If Baltimore wins, it guarantees them the AFC North crown and the top spot in the AFC playoffs. However, if Miami wins, they grab an AFC East Division title. In terms of record, these are the top two teams in the AFC, which should be enough to get you to tune in on Sunday. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends and Odds   

Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023 —  1 p.m. ET
Odds: Baltimore -3, Over/under 47, Miami +142 | Baltimore -170

I am surprised that Baltimore is not a more heavy favorite in this spot. It is like their beatdown of San Francisco last week didn't even happen. Miami is a quality opponent for sure, but even with the Ravens at home it still looks like there is great value with Baltimore. Miami did pick off the Ravens last September in a high-scoring game and perhaps the markets are giving that more credence than I am. 

Picks for Miami vs. Baltimore

Baltimore -3, Baltimore Over 26.5 Points (+110)

This line feels off to me. Maybe the Ravens are not as good as they looked when they beat the 49ers, because San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy melted down, but this is still a very good team, and they are playing at home (oh, and they won). I also like the fact that they were able to stymie the 49ers offense as the Dolphins offense is similar in the sense that its success comes from accuracy and being able to generate big plays. Getting to play these teams in back-to-back weeks is probably beneficial. The last time these teams played the Dolphins had no answer for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, but they were able to rack up enough points to make it moot. That is not generally a winning formula against the Ravens. If you don't limit Lamar you are toast. 

The Ravens are averaging 28 ppg this season. I see no reason why a home date with the Dolphins will drag down that average. They do not do it the same way as Miami, but Baltimore knows how to get into the end zone and there is a lot at stake here. This will not be a 17-13 game. 

The markets are preferring the Dolphins over the Ravens so far which is a surprise to me. I can roll with it though, if we get the Ravens at +3.5 that has real value. You can wait and see what happens for sure.