NFL Week 17: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills betting picks, preview

Buffalo is suddenly a hot team in the NFL and a team nobody wants to play right now. They might have lost a little steam in their road win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week, but they return home and should make quick work against a directionless New England team. They are looking for some revenge too from a loss earlier in the season when they were in a funk. 

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Buccaneers Betting Trends and Odds   

Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023 —  1 p.m. ET
Odds: Buffalo -13, Over/under 40.5, New England +154 | Buffalo -185

Buffalo cooled off last week on the road. I suppose it was bound to happen. I am not high on double-digit spreads in the NFL, but it is easy to understand why the Bills are heavily favored in this game, and we might even be getting a break given the fact that the Bills have underperformed for much of this season. The Pats have too and have already given up on the season by all measures. 

Picks for New England vs. Buffalo

Buffalo -13; Khalil Shakir over 2.5 Receptions (+124)

The Bills are a great future bet right now. I think. I would be surprised if they do not make the playoffs and though they would have to hit the road, I like their chances as much as anyone in the AFC. Looking ahead to Sunday, I am expecting the Bills to get back to dominating again. There might be a crackle in the stadium to start the game because New England is in town, but after the first quarter, I expect both teams will settle into their "lanes." Buffalo's newfound running game means they can shorten games more than they could earlier in the season, and this one might not be very pretty (hence the large spread). We can get the cover with Buffalo winning 34-17 or 24-3. 

Shakir, a shifty receiver capable of making people miss after the catch, has become a bigger part of the offense in year two in the NFL. In three of his last five games, he has had exactly three receptions and I also like this play because if the game gets a little out of hand, he should still see more than enough playing time, and I think that is a real possibility.

I never like playing such heavy chalk but the Bills are not just my choice, the money and tickets are coming in on them too. Between -10 and -13 is pretty much the same thing. The key is whether this line crosses that -14 threshold. If it does, you can tease it right back.