NFL Week 18: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints betting picks, preview

Picks for Atlanta vs. New Orleans

New Orleans -3, Race to 25 Points - Neither (+105)

New Orleans is not an exciting team to back. They seem to be all in on neither their present nor their future. They do win more often than not at home though and have won and covered the last two times they were home favorites. With these two teams, I would not expect either to run away from the other. Atlanta has the splashier talent at the skill positions, but without a deft quarterback to guide their offense they have been in the wilderness much of the season. I am looking for a game where each team has a little success on both sides of the ball. There will be some flashy plays, the defenses will flex a little, and whoever has the ball last wins. If that last drive results in a touchdown we win and it is a field goal we push. Look to tease this line too for sure. 

The last time these teams met, it was a 24-15 final so we have at least one obvious data point in support of this prop. Atlanta is averaging just 19 ppg on offense this season and New Orleans is just a field goal better at 22 ppg. With a lot at stake, the game is going to be heavily managed to avoid mistakes, not pump up the score. Look for the winner to not score more than the last time these teams met. 

So far the money is even on this game but the ticket count indicates the Saints are the more popular play. Check the entire market for sure because I have seen some +3.5s and +4s. At that number, I would probably switch my pick.