NFL Week 18 betting guide

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jacksonville -6.5

Total: 39.5 points

The Titans have lost six straight games. The Jaguars have won four straight. There is no doubt here, Jacksonville is going to win. They beat Tennessee by two touchdowns a month ago, and now the Titans have Joshua Dobbs at quarterback.

Betting: Jaguars -6.5

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Buffalo -7.5

Total: 43.5 points

The Patriots have allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends this season, and Dawson Knox has found the end zone in three straight games. Knox has three touchdowns in his last three games against New England.

Betting: Dawson Knox (+260 PointsBet)

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Cincinnati -10

Total: 39 points

The Bengals have been one of the NFL's hottest teams, while the Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson for one more week. Cincy is plenty motivated to win here and secure themselves a home playoff game against Baltimore next week. We'll roll with a teaser play here.

Betting: Bengals -3.5, Over 33.5 points (-116 FD)

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Minnesota -7.5

Total: 43 points

Chicago has shut down Justin Fields in an effort to take over the first overall pick. Minnesota is all but secured as the three seed, so expect them to rest some starters as well. Chicago has allowed the second-most touchdowns to running backs this year, and if Minnesota rests Dalvin Cook like we expect, Alexander Mattison suddenly becomes an attractive option.

Betting: Alexander Mattison TD (when sportsbooks open odds)

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Pittsburgh -2

Total: 40.5 points

It's remarkable to say, but Pittsburgh could make the playoffs with a win and some help this weekend. Additionally, they've never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin and currently sit at 8-8. That's enough motivation for us to like the Steelers on Sunday.

Betting: Steelers -2

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Spread: Miami -3.5

Total: 37 points

Oof, this is a tough one. The Jets are eliminated, while Miami is likely to be without Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater. The Dolphins need this game, but the quarterback situation and their recent slide has us nervous. We'll opt for Mike White to break Miami's hearts.

Betting: Jets +3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Atlanta -4.5

Total: 40.5 points

I know this is a betting article but I mean come on there are 16 NFL games this weekend: please don't bet on this one. Tampa Bay is locked into the fourth seed and sure to rest many of their starters. Atlanta has shown no signs of life. To fill our quota, we'll recommend the under and leave it at that. Don't spend your time watching this game.

Betting: Under 40.5 points

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Indianapolis -2.5

Total: 38 points

This to us feels like a fun one, because both teams are actively motivated to lose for their draft position, and each team has shown some defensive vulnerabilities. We're sadistically betting the over and feel quite good about it.

Betting: Over 38 points

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: New Orleans -3.5

Total: 42 points

Carolina came closer than we thought to winning the NFC South but blew it to Tampa Bay last week. As such, both of these teams are eliminated. New Orleans does not own their first round pick and that gives us confidence in expecting a full-on effort to win on Sunday. We can get behind that.

Betting: Saints -3.5

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

Spread: Dallas -7

Total: 41 points

The Cowboys could steal the NFC East with a win and an Eagles loss, and getting to see Sam Howell at quarterback should only make their end of the bargain easier to uphold. 

Betting: Cowboys -7

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: San Francisco -14

Total: 39.5 points

Arizona has allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends this year, and George Kittle has three touchdowns in his last two games against the Cardinals. Look his way when sportsbooks finally open touchdown bets.

Betting: George Kittle touchdown (when available)

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Philadelphia -14

Total: 43 points

The Giants are locked into the sixth seed and will be resting starters, while Philadelphia needs to win to secure home-field advantage. It sounds as if Jalen Hurts will be back this weekend. The Eagles throttled New York last time these two met and are in much-need of a get-right game.

Betting: Eagles -14

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seattle -6

Total: 41.5 points

The Rams had that one big win over the Broncos on Christmas, but otherwise have lost two of their last three. Seattle can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Packers loss, and should be able to handle their business against Los Angeles at home.

Betting: Seahawks -6

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Spread: Denver -3

Total: 40 points

The spread suggests that the Chargers may be resting some of their starters, and Denver has looked a bit more competent of late. We like points. The Broncos have been on an over tear since starting the year on a historic under run, and that's something we want to follow.

Betting: Over 40 points

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: Green Bay -5

Total: 49 points

If the Seahawks lose earlier in the day, this game will be a win and get in game. If Seattle wins, then only Green Bay can secure a playoff spot. Regardless, we don't see a situation in which the Lions hand a playoff spot to a hated division rival. This one is steeped in a bit of bias, but we just want Detroit in the big dance.

Betting: Lions +5