Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) is "full-go" for Sunday. Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 18: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers betting picks, preview

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Jan 5, 2024 2:52 PM ET

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, they win the NFC South. Is it as simple as betting on the team with something to play for?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers: Betting Odds

Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
Spread: Tampa Bay -4.5, Over/under: 37.5 points, Tampa Bay -238 | Carolina +195

The Carolina Panthers have been the NFL's worst team all season long, sitting at 2-15, with their lone wins a pair of two-point squeakers. Bryce Young has been a disappointment in his rookie season, and the Panthers defense has had trouble slowing down offenses, starting on the ground.

It seemed that maybe the Panthers were turning a corner, having beat Atlanta and then falling to Green Bay 33-30. They followed that up with a 26-0 loss to Jacksonville, which is more emblematic of the team they are.

On the flip side, the Buccaneers sit at 8-8, and they win the division with a win on Sunday. Earlier this season they took down Carolina 21-13, which spurred a four-game winning streak. That was snapped last Sunday against New Orleans, but the Bucs control their own destiny despite a shoddy secondary.

Tampa Bay is 10-6 ATS and 10-6 to the under. Carolina is 4-10-2 ATS and 11-5 to the under.

Betting Picks for Tampa Bay vs. Carolina

Buccaneers -4.5

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable for Sunday, but all signs indicate he will be playing in this must-win game.

"He's full-go," Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said of Mayfield on Friday, as shared by the Buccaneers' website. "He'll be ready to go on Sunday. I expect him to be the same as he always was."

It's hard to ignore the simple fact that Tampa Bay is the far more motivated team. Yes, they have had a hard time slowing down passing games, but Carolina is not built to take advantage. The Panthers aren't really built to win in any form on offense right now.

Mike Evans should find space to get going, and running back Rachaad White figures to be in for a big game against this weak run defense.

Factor in that the Buccaneers are one of the best betting teams this season against the spread and the Panthers are the worst, and the choice is simple.

Back the Bucs' to cover and stamp their ticket to the postseason.

Our Bark Bets sports betting newsletter has the news, picks and analysis smart bettors are using to win. Sign up today!

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

More must-reads: