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Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33). Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 1 player props: Four spots to back on Sunday

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 9/9/23

The week of research has reached an inflection point. Spots are circled, trends are studied. It's time to let these plays rip and trust the data as we head into a fresh NFL season. For a full look at the names I'm eyeing this weekend, I broke down the board on my Substack.

I've got four names I'm locking in, each for 1 unit.

Calvin Ridley over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 MGM)

I highlighted Ridley in my lotto parlay of the weekend as a guy I'm backing to go off on Sunday. It would only be responsible for me to spread that belief into his straight prop here. I bet Ridley to get 100+ yards in a parlay, so I'm going to let the analysis in that piece speak for itself, if you'd like to check it out.

Excited to see Ridley in this Jacksonville offense.

Brian Robinson over 58.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)

Arizona figures to be one of the worst rushing defenses this season, picking up right where they left off last year. The Cardinals allowed the 10th-most yards per carry in 2022 and graded out as the eighth-worst run defense on aggregate between DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and Pro Football Focus (PFF).

With their departures, that's only going to get uglier in 2023. Washington running back Brian Robinson is in a smash spot to deliver a big Sunday.

Over the final seven weeks last season, Robinson averaged 19.7 carries per game and 82.6 yards per game. That volume is set to remain, and the game-script is incredibly positive for the rushing attack, with the Commanders set as a touchdown favorite.

Javonte Williams over 48.5 rushing yards (+105 DK)

Javonte Williams seems to be in a good spot this Sunday. New Broncos coach Sean Payton alluded to the third-year running back owning a big role right out the gates, and this game against Las Vegas would be a nice opportunity to get the year started right.

The Raiders allowed 4.5 yards per carry last season, and they also allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to running backs. I'll be adding Williams TD to a FanDuel sweat-free parlay this weekend. Williams went over this line in two of the three games he started and finished last season.

Raheem Mostert over 63.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)

The Chargers run defense has been atrocious in each of Brandon Staley's first two seasons, and I'm not seeing what is changing as we head into 2023.

Last year, Los Angeles allowed an absurd 5.4 yards per carry. DVOA put their run D at 29th in the league and PFF had them 30th.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

In what projects to be a high-flying game between the Dolphins and Chargers, I'd like to ride the pace and load up the unquestioned top back in this Miami offense: Raheem Mostert.

Mostert was set for a time-share with Jeff Wilson, but Wilson is now on IR, opening the volume gates for Mostert. In the past six games in 2022 that Mostert suited up without Wilson, he saw 14+ carries each time, going over this 63.5 line in five of six, averaging 85 rushing yards per game.

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