NFL Week 2 Bets: Backing a big play from the Chargers

While there's a case of "putting your eggs in the same basket" with a strategy like this, it also opens up the possibility of cashing both props on the same play.

Last week's long reception targets went 3-6, but their quarterbacks went 7-2 against their long completion. It's just a one-week sample size, but it's a bit of a lightbulb moment that I shouldn't be siloing this market into only one receiver.

Take Alec Pierce of the Colts as an example. I was on his long catch in Week 1, and all four other Indianapolis receivers hauled in a 20+ yard pass. To be so right and so wrong at the same time is frustrating, but I prefer to use the glass half full view of the matter: it was the right spot. Funny enough, Matt Ryan did not hit his long completion in that game.

With that preface out of the way, I am rolling with a big play from the Chargers offense on Thursday, and spreading that net in a few directions. For now, the only line available is from the quarterback, so I want to lock that in while we can.

Justin Herbert over 37.5 longest completion (-114 FD)

This line has jumped up to 38.5 on other books, but it's still available at 37.5 on FanDuel. I'm fine with it up at 38.5, but obviously want to grab the best number.

In 2021, Justin Herbert tossed a 40+ yard pass in 11 of 17 games, and he started this year just how he left off, tossing a long of 42 yards in Week 1 against the Raiders.

Last year, the Chiefs were one of the best secondaries to target for long plays, ranking in the top 10 of explosive plays allowed and opponent's yards per pass attempt. While they tightened up towards the end of the year, the loss of two of their best coverage players in Tyrann Mathieu and Charvarius Ward makes me feel better about targeting them to begin the fresh season. It also helps that promising rookie corner Trent McDuffie was placed on IR to start the week, he had a strong debut on Sunday.

While Kyler Murray had a long of just 26 in Week 1, he did complete three 20+ yard passes, and this Chargers offense has the weapons to break a big one. Murray also had the 10th-most time to throw in the pocket, suggesting that this Chiefs pass rush may not have been as disruptive as the eye test suggested.

Herbert was just ahead of Murray, his offensive line allowed him the eighth-longest time to throw. It's an important factor to consider, the more time a QB has to let plays develop, the more likely he uncorks one down the field.

Herbert attempted five passes that traveled 20+ yards in the air, completing three of them. That completions number was tops in the NFL from this past Sunday, which highlights the QB's propensity to push the ball down the field.

In 2021, Herbert was one of the NFL's best deep passers. His 15 passes of 40+ yards were the second-most in the league, and his 48.4% completion percentage on passes attempted 20+ yards down the field was tops in the league among starters.

Mike Williams was quiet in Week 1 but was one of the best vertical threats in football last season, and really had the Chiefs number in 2021. Deandre Carter surprisingly saw plenty of targets down the middle of the field to start the season, which appears to be a soft spot for this Chiefs defense based on the Cardinals who had a big play. We'll have to wait on lines for these gentlemen, likely because of the Keenan Allen injury, but we are not done with this offense.

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. Griffin can be found on Twitter @griffybets.