It was a wild, wild, first week of the NFL season. Just like the real NFL, you cannot win or lose a contest in the first week (unless it is a Survivor Pool), but ugh!! Week 1 made for some hard-picking and tough losses.
Before we review the results in detail I just want to remind folks what is going on here. This is a mock contest entry where we pick 5 games against the spread each week. These are picked earlier in the week so the lines quoted as certainly subject to change after the picks have been locked in.
Week 1 Picks
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (Loss)
The Lions were chasing Philly most of the game and scored the dreaded backdoor TD late to cost us.
Miami Dolphins -2.5 (Win)
This was an easy win. There are major offensive problems in New England.
Tennessee Titans -5.5 (Loss)
Per the Survivor Pool. This was a total shocker. You gotta be worried in Tennessee, too.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (Win)
Another easy win. With Dak Prescott getting hurt we didn't even have to sweat it late.
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (Loss)
Another shocker but SF is no sure thing until they get Trey Lance going.
Week 1 to Week 2 is always the biggest overreaction week, but we are not actually seeing much of that with some of the teams that were the furthest from preseason expectations expected to shake off the rust and play with urgency this week. There are 6 teams favored by more than a TD in Week 2, but only 1 of them won last week. That was Buffalo. The team they beat, the Los Angeles Rams, is favored by 10.5 points after last week's opening night debacle. Go figure.
This looks like a tough picking week but here we go.
Miami Dolphins +3.5 (at Baltimore)
The Dolphins were one of the few teams that looked better than expected last week. It helped to play a NE team that is truly out of sync but the offense looks like it might be emerging. With that the case the Dolphins should be able to keep up with a Baltimore team that also looks to be ready for the season too. This is emerging as one of the better games of the day. That hook is the key.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (at New Orleans)
The Bucs got bailed out by getting a good matchup against Dallas. Once Dak went down that offense was terrible and even with him, they did not threaten much. I loved the way the Bucs ran the ball last week with Leonard Fournette. This is not going to be an easy one as the Saints have had the Bucs number of late. New coaches on both sides though and I never like having to count on Jameis Winston to play well.
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (at Dallas)
This one is all about the matchup. Even with the hook as a possible disaster, I like the Bengals to be able to win with margin. Dallas' lack of offense is eventually going to wear the defense down, setting up a Bengals offense that is one of the best in the NFL. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals score a TD on defense too.
Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 (vs Arizona)
The Raiders are one of those many teams that lost last week yet is favored in Week 2 (just not by as much as some others). It is hard to like what is going on with Arizona. it was a funny offseason and then they got embarrassed by the Chiefs at home in their opener, losing by 23 points. This offense just doesn't have the weapons they need to compete right now. The Raiders lost their opener but losing on the road in a division game is more than acceptable.
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (vs Minnesota)
I tend to avoid the Monday nighter for contests, not really sure why. I am still hot on the Eagles even though they left the backdoor open against the Lions last week. The Philly defense was a little leaky last week but I like that they were exactly what I thought they would be on offense, running the ball well and featuring receiver AJ Brown. That is what they are paying him the big bucks for (that is what you are supposed to do Denver).
Medium confidence this week so let's see what happens.
Matt Wiesenfeld has been handicapping games and espousing sports wisdom online for more than a decade, writing thousands of articles to help bettors understand and play the market. Matt loves to bet on, write about, and engage on MLB, the NFL, NBA, college football, and college basketball.
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