NFL Week 3: Raybon's picks, predictions, best bets, odds, preview

Broncos vs. Buccaneers: Denver Is Due for a Big Win

Sunday, Sept. 22

1 p.m. ET

Broncos +6.5 (-110, BetMGM)

• Broncos vs. Buccaneers Spread: Buccaneers -6.5
• Broncos vs. Buccaneers Total: 40.5

This is a classic let-down spot for the 2-0 Bucs, coming back home riding high off an upset win against the squad that knocked them out of the playoffs. Tampa Bay already has a win over a rookie quarterback this season, taking down Jayden Daniels in Week 1. Now, the Bucs face a team that's flying across the country after scoring a mere seven points at home last week.

All of those reasons to bet on the Buccaneers would be intriguing in their own right, but they have also been hella lucky on the field – literally. They're the second-luckiest team in our NFL Luck Rankings.

The Lions somehow managed to score nine points on seven red-zone drives. Getting those stops wasn't all the Bucs' doing. Detroit also forgot to cover Chris Godwin for an entire drive, and the week before, the Bucs played a Commanders team that still hasn't covered anyone defensively.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are the most unlucky team in our rankings – which is quite the accomplishment given they started the year with two safeties in the first half against the Seahawks. Teams with a Luck Gap of 28 or more places are 22-12-1 (64%) against the spread (ATS) all time.

Bo Nix has already turned it over twice in the red zone, which is a very rookie thing to do, but it's still a low-probability, high-impact event. The Broncos are 1-of-7 (14.3%) in the red zone, and that's one area they should expect to be decent in over the long term given their big-bodied receiving corps.

Another thing working the Broncos’ favor is Sean Payton, who is familiar with the Bucs from his time with the Saints and should at the very least have Nix better prepared than most for this Todd Bowles defense.

Payton is 55-34-2 (62%) ATS off a loss in his career, including 29-13-1 (69%) on the road off a loss. He hinted at some personnel changes — I think we see more Tyler Badie at running back and rookie Devaughn Vele in the slot — that will be tough for an injured Tampa Bay defense to scheme against.

Since 2010, 0-2 ‘dogs on the road are 53-29-1 (65%) ATS, covering by 2.9 points per game. This is Denver's time.

Pick: Broncos +6.5 (-110)

Chris Raybon's Broncos-Bucs Player Prop

Sunday, Sept. 22

1 p.m. ET

Javonte Williams Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (-120, Bet365)

Despite playing with a rookie quarterback in two one-score games, Javonte Williams has registered eight and 11 carries in the Broncos' first two games this season.

We just saw Payton go away from Jaleel McLaughlin after a cold-hand outing. Payton also hinted that Tyler Badie, who has looked like Denver’s best back since the preseason, could play more this week.

Williams has now gone under 12.5 in five of his last six games dating back to last season, also staying under 11.5 in four of his last five. Payton seems to have lost confidence in Williams' ability to handle large workloads since his ACL tear.

Bet to: 11.5

Pick: Javonte Williams Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (-120)

Panthers vs. Raiders Bet: This Is the Spot for Carolina

Sunday, Sept. 22

4:05 p.m. ET

Panthers +6.5 (-120, FanDuel)

• Panthers vs. Raiders Spread: Raiders -6.5
• Panthers vs. Raiders Total: 40

This is the obligatory Panthers bet now that Andy Dalton is in for Bryce Young at quarterback.

There's an argument to be made that going from Young to Dalton is worth three or four (maybe even more!) points to the spread. Young averaged -0.2 EPA per play since coming into the league, which is ahead of only Zach Wilson in that span. Dalton has been a slight net positive over the past three seasons. In Dalton’s one start with the Panthers last season, they put up their second-highest point total (27) and second-best yardage total (334) since the start of last season.

The Raiders are still bottom-five in offensive EPA after stunning the Ravens last week. This is the perfect letdown spot with a coach in his first full year. Take Young out of the equation, and the Raiders looked just as bad, if not worse, than Carolina did against the Chargers.

Week 3 favorites with at least one loss facing 0-2 'dogs are 43-27-1 (62%) ATS since 2005.

Meanwhile, road 'dogs with an ATS margin of -8.0 or worse in Week 3 like the Panthers (and also the Giants, Dolphins and Rams) are 180-95 (66%) ATS, covering by 2.2 points per game.

Bet to: +4

Pick: Panthers +6.5 (-120)

About the Author

Chris Raybon is a senior betting analyst at the Action Network, specializing in NFL, NBA, and fantasy football betting. He hosts The Action Network Podcast, with profitable NFL ATS picks every season, and the Fantasy Flex Podcast, while regularly appearing on NBA TV’s NBA BET and Turner Sports’ The Line. With over 15 years of betting experience, Chris boasts a 57% all-time winning percentage on NFL bets and top-5 finishes in FantasyPros accuracy rankings.

Follow Chris Raybon @ChrisRaybon on Twitter/X.