New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr. Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 6: New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans betting picks, preview

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated Oct 12, 2023 7:49 PM ET

New Orleans hits the road with confidence this week. They won at New England 34-0 last week, a result that definitely caught some people's eyes. They are in a dogfight in the NFC South though, the only division with three teams with three wins already in the bank. Houston has been better than expected thanks to the quick emergence of their rookie QB but they are not quite reliable just yet.

New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans Betting Trends and Odds

Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023 - 1 p.m. ET

Odds: New Orleans -1, Over/under 42, New Orleans -120 | Houston +100

I imagine the look ahead on this one was shaded more to New Orleans. The line is being influenced by the fact that Houston has been much better than expected and they are bringing in some money too ... it is amazing what a functional offense will do for you. New Orleans has to be inflated of a shutout win right? They are not getting the majority of the money though.

Picks for New Orleans vs. Houston

New Orleans -1, Derek Carr Over 1.5 TDs (+160)

At such a small spread this is basically a pick'em game but you might as well take the ATS play and get a slightly better playoff. New Orleans is not as good as last week's shutout of New England made them look. In fact, this Houston team may even be worse than the Patriots but look for a more competitive contest.

You can see how Houston is evolving but it is still early days for the Texans. New Orleans has a really strong defense, probably the best that rookie CJ Stroud has faced and I think we are going to see some cracks in the facade, finally. To this point, he has been steady, with no interceptions, but I think that changes on Sunday. New Orleans might not be elite but they are just more reliable in all phases of the game. That makes them the side to back.

The Saints have not been an offensive juggernaut this season. However, dynamic RB Alvin Kamara is back and Carr is in good health this week. Among their offensive TDs this season, which have been admittedly a little sporadic, only one has come on the ground. Free agent RB Jamal Williams was supposed to give them some thump around the goal line but he is out creating even more opportunities. New Orleans has scored four TDs through the air, so this is a place to cash in on a performance that is not going to need to be unprecedented.

When the numbers are small the money is the most likely thing to move it. Right now that is leaning toward Houston. So there may be some value yet to be realized with the Saints.

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Matt Wiesenfeld

Matt Wiesenfeld has been handicapping games and espousing sports wisdom online for more than a decade, writing thousands of articles to help bettors understand and play the market. Matt loves to bet on, write about, and engage on MLB, the NFL, NBA, college football, and college basketball

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