NFL Week 6: Picks and preview

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Tampa Bay -6.5

What you need to know:  After getting through an emotional crucible in his return to New England, Tom Brady was firing on all cylinders, torching the Dolphins for 411 yards and 5 touchdowns, his first-ever 400 and 5 game. The outburst was necessary, as the Buccaneers couldn’t shake Miami for the better part of the game. The Buccaneers were also able to completely take the run away from Miami, though Jalen Hurts should present a more multi-faceted challenge than Jacoby Brissett. Hurts and the Eagles somehow got a win over Carolina, despite being thoroughly outplayed for the majority of the game. A late punt block set up the Eagles with a short field and Hurts cashed it in with a game-winning 6-yard touchdown run. Philadelphia has three convincing losses, one suspect win, and one impressive win. They’ll likely struggle to run the ball against Tampa Bay – nearly everyone does – so their ability to keep this game close rests with their defensive front’s ability to pressure Brady without blitzing, and Hurts’ ability to make chunk plays in the passing game.

On the spot: Buccaneers QB Tom Brady. Obviously, Brady’s performance doesn’t dictate him being here, but his sore right thumb does. He says it will be fine, but fans – not to mention other teams – will be watching closely to see if he looks at all uncomfortable throwing the ball.

Eagles DT Fletcher Cox:  Cox finally got his first sack of the season against Carolina, not to mention his first tackle for loss and first two quarterback hits. If Philly is going to have a chance in this game, their defensive line will have to collapse the pocket from the inside.

The pick: Buccaneers 34 Eagles 24

TV: CBS        Line: Miami -3

What you need to know:  Pity NFL fans in London, for they, in successive weeks, will see the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets, and now the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars. Not exactly the best the NFL has to offer, is it? The Dolphins have supplanted the Steelers as the team most fully incapable of running the football with any sort of proficiency, but that would be selling them short; in reality, Miami does nothing well offensively. For that matter, they’re terrible on defense, too, ranking 30 ^th in the league in scoring defense, as opposed to 31^st in scoring offense. About the only thing Miami does reasonably well is take the ball away; the Dolphins have forced six turnovers, good for 11^th in the league. Wouldn’t you know it, the Jaguars are atrocious at taking the ball away and holding onto it. Jacksonville has forced exactly one turnover so far this year, and has coughed it up 11 times, with Trevor Lawrence (8 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost) accounting for all but one of them. Surely Urban Meyer has a plan in place to fix that, right? Right?

On the spot: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.  Tagovailoa appears ready to return for the Dolphins, but that’s not necessarily the best news, because the first 11 starts of his career have not yielded the kind of returns Miami was hoping for, particularly when Justin Herbert was there for the taking.

Jaguars HC Urban Meyer:  Until Meyer either resigns, wins a football game or manages to keep his name out of the headlines for bad reasons, this spot will remain his to lose. Only seems fair, right?

The pick: Jaguars 23 Dolphins 19

TV: FOX        Line: Green Bay -4

What you need to know:  The Packers survived a wild affair in Cincinnati, one that featured a combined five missed field goals in the final four minutes of regulation and overtime. Mason Crosby finally won the game with a 49-yarder, and Green Bay had its fourth-straight win as a result. Robert Tonyan and Aaron Jones are a bit banged up for the Packers, but as long as Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are healthy, it’s hard to fathom Green Bay not being able to move the ball up and down the field. Even if the offense is slowed by Chicago, if the Packers keep their turnover streak going – two takeaways in each of the last four games – they should be fine. Justin Fields got his first touchdown pass as a pro, and the Bears got an impressive win over the Raiders and find themselves at 3-2 on the year. That said, anemic would be too kind a word to describe the Bears’ passing attack, which ranks last in the NFL in yards, touchdowns, and net yards per attempt. This game marks the start of a three-game stretch that also features the Buccaneers and 49ers, so if the Bears can’t move the ball through the air more effectively, they could be 3-5 in short order.

On the spot: Packers LT Yosh Nijman. Per Pro Football Focus, Nijman has his best game as a left tackle against Cincinnati, registering a 76.8 pass-blocking grade. He’ll have to be at his best against the Bears, mainly because of the presence of…

Bears LB Khalil Mack:  You might have heard that Mack is pretty good. He has sacks in four straight games, and five overall this season, and the Bears’ only realistic chance of victory involves him dominating whoever he lines up against, and completely disrupting the Packers’ offense.

The pick: Packers 28 Bears 23

TV: FOX        Line: Cincinnati -3.5

What you need to know:  The Bengals had every chance to score an impressive win over Green Bay and move to 4-1 on the year but squandered their opportunities thanks to two missed field goals. Now they face three straight road games, but that isn’t as daunting a task as it might otherwise be, as two of those games are against the Lions and Jets. Joe Burrow threw two picks against the Packers, but he continues to impress in his return from knee surgery. Perhaps most importantly for Cincy, it is abundantly clear that Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have something special going – Chase has a touchdown catch in four of five games so far – and that should keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night. The Lions have played tough, but tough only gets you so far in the NFL. What Detroit hasn’t been able to do is finish off games, twice losing by 19-17 scores. Part of that was bad luck – there’s no other way to describe Justin Tucker’s 66-yard game-winner – but part is a lack of talent. The Lions had the Vikings on the ropes, but gave up 46 yards on three plays – in 27 seconds, no less – to set up their latest loss. Detroit will throw scares into some teams, but scares don’t equal wins.

On the spot: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase.  Not that he hasn’t done so already, but since many wondered if Chase – not Penei Sewell – was the right pick for the Bengals, this would be another chance for him to prove that Cincinnati made the right move.

Lions LT Penei Sewell: Hey, speaking of Sewell, he’s had significant struggles through five games as a pro. A dominant performance from him won’t look the same as one from Chase, but it would go a long way towards easing Lions fans’ minds about his future.

The pick: Bengals 27 Lions 26

TV: CBS        Line: Indianapolis -10

What you need to know:  The Texans looked like they were going to get their second victory of the year, against New England no less, until they collapsed and couldn’t hold on, eventually dropping a 25-22 decision. Davis Mills was a significant bright spot, however, throwing for 3 touchdowns and 312 yards while completing 21-of-29 passes. It’s just one game, but one imagines Houston fans will cling to all the positives they can find. How bad was the Colts’ collapse against Baltimore? Indy had won 120 consecutive games when leading by 16 in the fourth quarter. What should have been a statement win for Frank Reich’s team instead turned into a nightmare, one that saw Lamar Jackson shred the Colts’ secondary for almost 450 yards passing. The Colts aren’t totally dead in the water, though; Houston should provide a breather, and then Indianapolis travels to San Francisco, before three straight home games, two of which are against the Jets and Jaguars. What the Colts must hope is that Carson Wentz’s strong play the last two weeks – 4 touchdowns, 122.1 passer rating, no interceptions – is a sign of things to come.

On the spot: Texans QB Davis Mills. Well, Mills has a statistical performance to build on, but the question becomes whether that was an anomaly, or whether a player picked in the third round actually has a potential future as Houston’s franchise quarterback. Every game is a small referendum, at this point.

Colts QB Carson Wentz:  Wentz’s numbers have been fine this season, but with the Colts 1-4, eventually he’s going to start taking more heat for their poor start. If he can’t beat the Texans, that heat will be coming on strong, and from all directions.

The pick: Colts 31 Texans 13

TV: FOX        Line: Los Angeles -10

What you need to know:  Matthew Stafford hasn’t always been perfect, but all in all, the idea that he and Sean McVay would work well together has proven to be well-founded. Stafford has much easier throws in McVay’s system, and McVay has a quarterback who can use the entire field because of his prodigious arm talent. The Rams’ win over Seattle was somewhat reassuring because it saw Los Angeles’ defense get a little closer to form after a strafing at the hands of Kyler Murray. With games against Detroit and Houston after this one, there’s no reason Los Angeles shouldn’t be 7-1. Even when a player shows out for the Giants, something still has to go wrong. Kadarius Toney had a monster game against Dallas, racking up 10 catches for 189 yards, but was ejected from the game for throwing a punch at Davontae Kazee. Joe Judge was not happy with his wide receiver, though Toney did apologize on Monday morning. The Giants certainly need Toney to deliver more performances like the one he had against Dallas, and need an offense ranked 12 ^th in total yards to start producing more points; currently, New York is just 23^rd in scoring offense.

On the spot: Rams LB Leonard Floyd.  Aaron Donald didn’t practice Wednesday and is considered day-to-day with a knee injury. If he can’t go, or just is limited in his snap count, the onus falls to Floyd to lead Los Angeles’ defensive front.

Giants WR Kadarius Toney:  All eyes will be not only on Toney but also on Joe Judge, to see how he handles his talented rookie after last week’s ejection. What should be obvious is that the Giants desperately need his playmaking ability, particularly against a team featuring Jalen Ramsey.

The pick: Rams 33 Giants 27

TV: CBS        Line: Kansas City -6.5

What you need to know:  What’s going on with the Chiefs? Answering that question really involves figuring out what’s wrong with Patrick Mahomes, who has 10 interceptions in his last eight regular-season games. When the Chiefs don’t turn the ball over, their offense is as explosive as ever, but when they do, they become fallible. Were it not for Cleveland’s inability to put them away, Kansas City would be 1-4 and in real trouble. As it is, their formula for success seems simple; Mahomes takes better care of the ball, and the league’s worst scoring defense improves incrementally. Those two things have to happen sometime, don’t they? If you predicted that the Washington Football Team would have the second-worst scoring defense in the league through five games, come collect your prize. Since giving up 20 points to the Chargers in Week 1, Washington has allowed 29, 43, 30, and 33 to its next four opponents. Taylor Heinicke looks like he has real potential, but that’s currently being stunted by a defense that isn’t pressuring the quarterback with regularity and isn’t making life difficult for just about any opponent.

On the spot: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is still a supernatural talent, but for the first time in his career, some of the shine is wearing off. He’s admitted that he has to take better care of the football; now he has to go out and do it.

Washington Football Team DE Chase Young:  Young has just one sack so far this season, and while he is racking up hurries, getting the quarterback to the ground still matters, particularly against an improvisational wizard-like Mahomes.

The pick: Chiefs 36 Washington Football Team 33

TV: FOX        Line: Minnesota -1.5

What you need to know:  The Vikings were lucky to escape their game against Detroit with a win, needing a sharp, late drive from Kirk Cousins and a 54-yard field goal from Greg Joseph to come out on top. Minnesota’s defense has trended in the right direction in its last two games, but its offense has sputtered during that same time period. Health has something to do with that; Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen were both held out of practice Wednesday, though that seems more precautionary in nature, either way, the bye week that follows this game is coming at a good time for Minnesota. The Panthers might get Christian McCaffrey back this week, but if can’t go, his absence would be much easier to stomach at 4-1 than it will be at 3-2. The Panthers gave away their game against the Eagles last week and should be tied with Tampa Bay atop the AFC South. Also troubling is the fact that Sam Darnold’s play has trended downward since his first two starts with the team, as he has 5 interceptions and just 3 touchdowns in his last two starts. Having McCaffrey back, whether it’s this week or next, will certainly help matters, but Darnold simply has to be better in his own right.

On the spot: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. Cousins started the season on fire but has cooled off significantly in his last two games. The Panthers boast one of the best defenses in the NFL; will Cousins rebound on the road, or will his personal slide continue?

Panthers QB Sam Darnold:  If Cousins’ play is suffering, Darnold’s is even more alarming. The quickest way to undercut a good defense is to turn the ball over, and unfortunately for Carolina, Darnold is doing that with regularity.

The pick: Panthers 28 Vikings 21

TV: CBS        Line: Baltimore -2.5

What you need to know:  Justin Herbert won another battle against a young, talented quarterback, though beating Baker Mayfield doesn’t count for nearly as much as a win over Patrick Mahomes does. Herbert will have a chance to bag his second win over a former MVP this season when the Chargers take on Baltimore. The thing that seems most readily apparent about the Chargers is that Herbert is getting more confident by the week, and the point totals back that up. After scoring just 37 points in the first two weeks of the season, the Chargers have piled up 105 in their last three games. Now the only thing that needs to be fixed is a porous run defense that still ranks dead last in the league in yards, and yards per carry allowed. Normally, the previous sentence would be music to Ravens’ fans' ears, but Baltimore has struggled – by its standards – to run the football for three straight weeks, barely topping 100 yards against Detroit, infamously doing so against Denver, and failing to do so against Indianapolis. That the Ravens are 4-1 is entirely a commentary on Lamar Jackson’s greatness; he threw for a career-high 442 yards against the Colts, to go with 4 touchdowns, all while completing 86 percent of his passes and not throwing a single interception. Care to guess how many passers in league history have had a game with at least 400 yards passing, 4 touchdowns, no interceptions, and at least an 85 percent completion percentage? One. Lamar Jackson.

On the spot: Chargers S Derwin James.  Players like James exist and are coveted specifically to stop guys like Jackson. So while all eyes will be on the quarterback matchup, it will be on James to make sure Jackson has a hard time winning it.

Ravens RB Latavius Murray:  Jackson is increasingly becoming a one-man band in every conceivable way. Someone in Baltimore’s backfield full of spare parts has to emerge as a featured runner. Murray started against Indianapolis and played about half the team’s offensive snaps, so he’s as good a candidate as any.

The pick: Chargers 34 Ravens 27

TV: FOX        Line: Cleveland -3

What you need to know:  It wasn’t easy, but the Cardinals got themselves to 5-0, relying on their defense and grinding out a 17-10 win over San Francisco, and ruining Trey Lance’s first career start in the process. Kyler Murray’s numbers weren’t bad, but he wasn’t able to put up electrifying stat lines as he had over the Cardinals’ first four games. This game looks like a bad matchup for Arizona, as their rush defense is second-worst in the league in yards per carry allowed. In case you haven’t heard, the Browns like to run the ball, and they’re good at it. Cleveland looked like a team ready to make a statement against the Chargers, but wilted late and couldn’t put together a drive for a go-ahead score, despite moving the ball almost at will for most of the afternoon. Also troubling was the fact that their defense, which came in with gaudy numbers, got shredded by Justin Herbert and Los Angeles to the tune of 493 yards allowed, including 381 through the air. Slowing Murray would go a long way towards proving their poor work against Herbert was an anomaly.

On the spot: Cardinals LB Markus Golden.  Star pass rusher Chandler Jones has COVID-19, which has his status for this game up in the air. If he doesn’t go, much of the burden for filling his shoes will fall to Golden.

Browns QB Baker Mayfield:  Head coach Kevin Stefanski admitted that got tight with his play-calling late against the Chargers, fearful of something bad happening. That’s a direct commentary on Mayfield, whether Stefanski wants to admit it or not. Mayfield needs to continue to improve or risk being the reason that Cleveland can’t reach truly elite status.

The pick: Cardinals 31 Browns 30

TV: CBS        Line: Denver -3.5

What you need to know:  The leaked Jon Gruden emails doubtless have the Raiders in crisis mode, though Gruden’s decision to resign – after a meeting with owner Mark Davis – seemed obvious. Now Las Vegas will have to regroup under interim head coach Rich Bisaccia, and in addition to the Gruden situation, they also have to deal with two straight losses. Getting beaten by Justin Herbert and the Chargers is one thing, but getting steamrolled by Chicago is another altogether. Derek Carr had a miserable game against the Bears. As he goes, so goes Las Vegas, and if he struggles again, the Raiders are in big trouble. Denver was exposed as something of a fraudulent 3-1 team by the Steelers, who ran the ball right at what was thought to be a stingy defense, and stifled Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos offense until a late rally gave Denver a chance to tie. Bridgewater and the offense have to be more aggressive early in games against better competition, even if that goes somewhat against their low-risk philosophy on that side of the ball.

On the spot: Raiders OC Greg Olson. Jon Gruden called the plays for the Raiders’ offense, and he was fairly well-regarded in that department. His resignation leaves the job of scheming Las Vegas’ offense to Olson, who has plenty of experience in that position but hasn’t had play-calling pressure for the Raiders.

Broncos HC Vic Fangio:  Fangio’s defense got shredded by the previously punchless Steelers, and his offense operated with little urgency against Pittsburgh. The Broncos have lost two in a row since starting 3-0 against the dregs of the league. The burden of proof is on Fangio to show that his team’s fast start wasn’t fool’s gold.

The pick: Raiders 24 Broncos 20

TV: CBS        Line: Dallas -3.5

What you need to know:  How ‘bout them Cowboys? Were it not for a narrow season-opening loss to Tampa Bay, Dallas would be 5-0. As is, no one is sleeping on the Cowboys, who are combining spectacular offense with an improved defense and look like one of the league’s best teams. Dak Prescott, not coincidentally, looks like an MVP candidate, and Kellen Moore is pushing all the right buttons. Micah Parsons was the defensive playmaker Dallas desperately needed, and with the rest of the NFC East scuffling, the division looks like it’s Dallas’ to lose. A win over the Patriots would merely be another statement in a season that is so far full of them. New England won against Houston last week, but it was about as uninspiring a performance as a team could have. Davis Mills moved the ball well on Bill Belichick’s defense, and it took a late rally for the Pats to escape Houston with a victory. New England’s defense is still impressive, but there are still several talented offenses left on the schedule, not to mention two showdowns with Buffalo. Unless Mac Jones makes significant strides, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots scoring enough points to qualify for the postseason, though New England will probably be a tough out for most opponents.

On the spot: Cowboys OC Kellen Moore. When asked about Belichick’s tendency to make opposing offenses play “left-handed,” Moore simply replied that as a lefty himself, he was fine with that notion. It was good line; can he call a good game against one of the best defensive minds ever?

Patriots HC Bill Belichick:  Belichick is of course a better in-game coach than Mike McCarthy, but the real battle of wits in this game pits him against Moore. Dallas has more talent across the board, but the game is in Foxborough. Does Belichick have any tricks up his sleeve? He’ll need them if the Patriots are to have any chance.

The pick: Cowboys 27 Patriots 24

TV: NBC        Line: Pittsburgh -5.5

What you need to know:  Seattle lost the battle and the war against Los Angeles, dropping the game 26-17 and losing Russell Wilson for at least a month, and possibly longer, to a finger injury. It’s Geno Smith’s show for now, and while he efficiently marched the team to 10 points in three series, the last one stopped by an interception that wasn’t his fault, facing a defense that’s preparing for you is different than coming in off the bench midstream. Smith will have to contend with a Steelers team that is averaging about 10 hurries per game, and consistently disrupts opposing passers. Pittsburgh finally got its running game going, with Najee Harris breaking out for 122 yards against the Broncos. Harris’ performance marked the first 100-yard game for a Steelers back since Week 6 of last season. Equally encouraging was the overall play of Pittsburgh’s offensive line, which opened holes for Harris and gave Ben Roethlisberger time to throw.

On the spot: Seahawks QB Geno Smith. Smith looked good against the Rams, but he’ll have to play at a high level for Seattle to have a chance at weathering Wilson’s injury and staying in the playoff race.

Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth: With JuJu Smith-Schuster done for the season, the Steelers will be looking for another pass catcher to work the tight areas near the line of scrimmage in the middle of the field. Freiermuth seems like the player best equipped to handle the task.

The pick: Steelers 21 Seahawks 17

TV: ESPN        Line: Buffalo -5.5

What you need to know:  Fresh off thrashing the Chiefs in a dominant, statement-making win, the Bills will try to further seize control of the AFC against Tennessee. Buffalo did everything right against Kansas City, harassing Patrick Mahomes into two interceptions and a lost fumble, and limiting Kansas City’s explosive offense, particularly Tyreek Hill. Josh Allen repeatedly tore up the Chiefs’ defense for long completions and made plays both on- and off-schedule. Everything is clicking for Buffalo, and the Bills look like the best team in the league. Tennessee is a curious team; Derrick Henry has been fantastic again and is on pace to outdo last year’s 2,027-yard season. Henry’s workload has been staggering, as he’s also on pace to lead the league in carries, and so far, Ryan Tannehill hasn’t gotten on track to enough of a degree where he can shoulder more of the burden. Delivering a big offensive performance against Buffalo’s league-best defense would be a big statement, and vault the Titans ahead of the Bills in the AFC standings.

On the spot: Bills LB Matt Milano.  Milano is Buffalo’s second-best run defender, per Pro Football Focus. He sat out against Kansas City with a hamstring injury; if he’s back, he’ll have to be a sure tackler in order to limit the damage Henry does.

Titans CB Caleb Farley:  Farley played 24 snaps against Jacksonville last week, and might be called upon to do a lot more if corner Kristian Fulton can’t go against Buffalo. If Farley has to play a bigger role, there is little doubt that Allen and the Bills will go after him.

The pick: Bills 38 Titans 30