NFL Week 7: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Arizona -2.5

Andy Dalton had a real chance to actually win the starting job from Jameis Winston in New Orleans. It was out there in reports and everything. And he looked like he just might do it, too, until the Saints started having to settle for field goals before the bottom fell out of their offense completely at the worst possible time. Dalton couldn’t run out the clock with a lead and couldn’t engineer a comeback when that lead disappeared. He might still get the start in this game, given the short turnaround, and New Orleans can ill-afford another late stagnation like last week. Serious question: Do I have to keep repeating myself about the Cardinals? Or can I just say, “these guys are never going to be a serious NFC contender, are actively infuriating to watch, and are headed for some exceptionally frustrating years ahead,” right here, right now, and we can all agree that until I say differently, that’s my steady opinion on them? Because it is. Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury should be embarrassed that they couldn’t produce an offensive touchdown against a Seahawks team that entered the game second-worst in the league in scoring defense and dead last in total defense. In other news, DeAndre Hopkins will return from his PED suspension in this game. So that’ll help – at least, you’d hope.

Look smart to your friends:

-Defensive lineman Cameron Jordan has always terrorized the Cardinals; he has 4 sacks and 7 tackles for loss in four career games against Arizona.

-It has been a long time, but the last time Hopkins saw New Orleans, with Houston in 2019, he lit them up for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The pick: Saints 23 Cardinals 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Cincinnati -6.5

It was easy for me to praise the Falcons for being surprisingly plucky, but it felt like they were in for a reality check against San Francisco, even with Nick Bosa out of the lineup. Instead, they delivered a tidy punch to the face of the Niners, intercepting Jimmy Garoppolo twice, forcing a Jeff Wilson fumble, and getting nearly flawless play from Marcus Mariota. I want to say that the Falcons are a 3-3 pretender, but look at their next six games; two against the Panthers, plus dates with the Bears and Commanders. Those are eminently winnable, and you don’t have to squint too hard to see a path to 9-8 this year. The Bengals went down to New Orleans and got themselves a character win, battling back in a tough environment to steal one from the Saints. Of particular note is the fact that Joe Burrow looks like he’s fully past his early-season scuffles. Burrow made countless big plays to get the win for Cincinnati, including a 19-yard touchdown scramble. Atlanta will present a challenge, but the Bengals have a chance to make hay over the next month or so.

Look smart to your friends:

-Tyler Allgeier hasn’t been the Falcons’ feature back at all, but he is still one of only four rookie running backs (Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker) with 250+ scrimmage yards in 2022.

-Ja’Marr Chase loves home cooking. The second-year star is averaging 135.6 yards per game and has 6 touchdown catches in his past five home games.

The pick: Bengals 31 Falcons 17

TV: CBS            LINE: Dallas -7

You know I have a soft spot for the Lions. I have no real idea why it is, but they’re chaotic and fun viewing, their blowout loss to the Patriots in Week 5 notwithstanding. But at some point, all that fun needs to translate into something other than the usual for Detroit, “the usual” being a lot of losses. The Lions’ defense is wretched in every way, and while that might not have hurt them as much if Cooper Rush was quarterbacking the Cowboys, it’s probably going to be very bad news now that Dak Prescott is primed to return to the lineup. I give Rush a ton of credit; he absolutely saved the Cowboys’ season when it could have and maybe should have been circling the drain after Prescott’s injury. He even rallied them back from a 20-0 deficit to make their Sunday night affair with the Eagles interesting until the waning minutes. But the eye test makes it abundantly clear that there is a very defined ceiling on what the Cowboys can accomplish while he’s their quarterback, and they need Prescott to get to where they want to go.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jamaal Williams continues to show a nose for the end zone. He is the only player in the NFL with three games of 2+ rushing touchdowns this season.

-Prescott couldn’t have picked a better team to return against; in three career starts against Detroit, he has 911 passing yards, 8 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 126.2 passer rating.

The pick: Cowboys 31 Lions 27

TV: CBS            LINE: Tennessee -2.5

I badly wanted there to be some changing of the guard in the AFC South this year, but it is with great regret that it appears it will be Indianapolis and Tennessee jockeying for supremacy yet again. The Colts deserve credit for going punch-for-punch with Jacksonville, but they remain a schizophrenic bunch. Matt Ryan has been great in three games, including last week without Jonathan Taylor, and the Colts are 2-1 in those contests. Of course, the only loss in those three is against the Titans, so this is a bit of a must-win. Tennessee got to rest for a week, and now the Titans have a chance to really take control of the division; a win against the Colts here, followed up by one against the Texans, and they’d be somewhat insulated against a tough-looking middle of the schedule. I’m still not sold on Tennessee, of course; it’s hard to buy Ryan Tannehill at this point, and while the Titans can be very tough if they get their offense clicking, that’s hardly happened on a consistent basis this year. That’s a big problem against quality opposition, but there isn’t much of that in the AFC South.

Look smart to your friends:

-Michael Pittman is coming off career highs in catches (13) and receiving yards (134) last week, and should keep it rolling. He’s looking for his third in a row at Tennessee with 6+ catches and 65+ receiving yards.

-Derrick Henry had a huge game in Week 4 against Indy, and he’s averaging 136.5 scrimmage yards per game with 5 touchdowns in his past six games against the Colts.

The pick: Colts 26 Titans 21

TV: FOX            LINE: Green Bay -4.5

Having Aaron Rodgers around means you’ll always get a certain amount of leeway and the benefit of the doubt, but what exactly do the Packers do really well at this point? A special-teams disaster befell them again, just like in last year’s playoff loss to San Francisco, and there was never really much pushback after the Jets jumped out to a 17-3 lead. Green Bay’s yardage stats look gaudy, but the results don’t match up, and now Rodgers and Matt LaFleur are starting to take little passive-aggressive jabs at each other. This is a team that needs answers, fast. Washington squeaked out a win against the Bears, and Brian Robinson Jr. scoring in his first game after having his pro debut delayed by a gunshot wound was a feel-good story, but Carson Wentz broke a finger on his throwing hand, which means it’s Taylor Heinicke time for the next four to six weeks. Want to bet that, if he plays, Heinicke puts a jolt of life into the Commanders and that they look better with him out there? I certainly would.

Look smart to your friends:

-Figure on linebacker De’Vondre Campbell being highly involved in this game; he had 14 tackles and 2 forced fumbles in the teams’ last meeting.

-Heinicke was a big-time dual threat when the teams last met; he had 363 total yards (268 passing and a career-high 95 rushing yards) in the game.

The pick: Packers 24 Commanders 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Tampa Bay -11

Here’s a confession for you: I was about to put a futures bet on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl last week. I had this weird suspicion that their offensive line was going to come together, slowly but surely, and that the ageless Tom Brady would find his best form at just the right time, and Tampa would sneak through the weak NFC, then pull a stunner against Buffalo or Kansas City. I’m glad I didn’t. That team, and its quarterback, looked awful against the Steelers’ defensive skeleton crew. Having said that, the Bucs should get healthy this week because, whew baby, the Panthers just absolutely stink. Christian McCaffrey deserves to play for another team. Robbie Anderson is now gone, traded to Arizona after a sideline pout-fest that saw interim head coach Steve Wilks tell him to take a hike, and while Anderson’s conduct on the sideline and subsequent attempt at an explanation were ridiculous, in some ways, it’s hard to blame him for being so angry.

Look smart to your friends:

-Leonard Fournette was considered a weak pass-catcher when he came into the league. How things have changed. He can become the first running back since 2016 (David Johnson) with 5+ catches and a receiving touchdown in four straight games.

-McCaffrey might be playing in his final game as a Panther, and it has been a prolific career. He already has 24 career games with 50+ rushing yards and 50+ receiving yards, second-most in NFL history behind Marshall Faulk.

The pick: Buccaneers 30 Panthers 13

TV: FOX            LINE: Jacksonville -3

Every Giants game has been decided by one score. Their five wins are by a combined 21 points. That isn’t much. Brian Daboll’s team clearly believes, however, and they prove it in the fourth quarter. In their five wins, they’ve outscored the opposition 45-12 in the final 15 minutes. This skin-of-their-teeth method isn’t going to last forever, and as the spread shows, hasn’t impressed Vegas, but better to try and get more sustainable while you’re 5-1. The Jaguars had it in Indianapolis until they didn’t. I can’t really say the Jags gave the game away; it was a back-and-forth affair, and Jacksonville’s only fumble came on a desperation final play. Still, their defense, which came into the game fourth in the league in points allowed, couldn’t stop Matt Ryan all afternoon, and they’ve now lost 14 straight division road games. Can’t win a division title that way or have a good chance at a winning season, for that matter.

Look smart to your friends:

-Saquon Barkley continues his resurgent season; he leads the NFL in scrimmage yards with 771 and is bidding for his third-straight road game with a rushing touchdown and fourth-straight road game with 100+ scrimmage yards.

-Travis Etienne is emerging as a true dual threat; he had 108 scrimmage yards last week and is going for his third game in a row with 100+ scrimmage yards.

The pick: Jaguars 23 Giants 19

TV: CBS            LINE: Baltimore -6.5

Jacoby Brissett got a vote of confidence from Kevin Stefanski, but Stefanski should be asking for one from Browns fans. Letting Brissett throw the ball 45 times, and never really trying to get Nick Chubb established until it was too late was pure negligence on Stefanski’s part. The Browns feel like a team that should be better than 2-4, the fact that they’re not is a reflection on their coach. Speaking of teams that feel like they should be better than their record, there’s Baltimore. The Ravens blew a huge lead against Buffalo, blew a huge lead against Miami, and then saw Lamar Jackson make an absolutely atrocious decision to cost them what looked like a sure win against the Giants. Baltimore outgained New York 406-238 but never put them away and paid for it. They’ve got time to figure it out, and beating Cleveland to move to 2-0 against the division would be a nice step in that process.

Look smart to your friends:

-Amari Cooper needs a touchdown catch to become just the sixth player in the Super Bowl era, with 5+ receiving touchdowns in each of his first eight seasons.

-Jackson is on the cusp of some inevitable history. He leads all quarterbacks with 451 rushing yards this year and can join Cam Newton as the only quarterbacks in league history with 500+ rushing yards in each of their first five seasons.

The pick: Browns 28 Ravens 24

TV: CBS            LINE: Denver -1

What the hell has gotten into the Jets? Beating Pittsburgh with two late-scoring drives piqued my interest a bit. Drubbing a short-handed Dolphins team got me to raise an eyebrow. Going into Green Bay and dismantling the Packers means that New York has my full attention. Robert Saleh is clearly building a culture, not to mention a really nasty, dominant defensive line. Breece Hall is the real deal, and all of this is keeping pressure off of Zach Wilson. I’m not positive the Jets are good, but they’re starting to sway me. The Broncos lost – again – and in some ways, this one was the most disheartening defeat yet. Russell Wilson started out hot and looked like he had turned a corner, posting 173 passing yards in the first half…and then the wheels fell off, and he threw for just 15 yards in the second half, looking terrible in the process. Wilson is also day-to-day with a hamstring injury. I would say that things can’t get worse for the Broncos, but I feel like that would be wrong.

Look smart to your friends:

-Hall is looking like the runaway favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s coming off a career-high 116 rushing yards last week, and leads all rookies with 609 scrimmage yards, and is tied for the lead with 4 total touchdowns.

-Melvin Gordon wasn’t happy last week, but he’s going to start, and has 14 total touchdowns in 11 career games against AFC East opponents.

The pick: Broncos 20 Jets 17

TV: CBS            LINE: Las Vegas -7

Things are already looking up for the Texans, and they didn’t even play last week. Sure, Houston is dragging a 1-3-1 mark into this game, but they finally came to their senses and parted ways with executive vice president of football operations Jack Easterby, ending a tenure that hurt the franchise, muddied the front-office waters, and was roundly mocked by outside observers. Yeah, they’ve got a long way to go, but every great journey starts with one step. The Raiders had a chance to lick their wounds, and with the AFC a mess of two- and three-win teams, Las Vegas isn’t out of the running, so long as they win this game. In fact, the Raiders have a chance to really get going, given that there’s no one particularly daunting on the schedule until the Chargers come to town in early December. Josh McDaniels needs to be better because a team that loses this many close games – Vegas’ largest margin of defeat is six points in overtime – reflects its coach.

Look smart to your friends:

-Dameon Pierce would be the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner if it wasn’t for Breece Hall; Pierce leads all rookies with 412 rushing yards, and ranks second with 469 scrimmage yards.

-The Raiders badly need a win, and fortunately for them, Derek Carr has tortured the Texans in his last two games against them, posting 3+ touchdown passes and a 115+ passer rating in each.

The pick: Raiders 30 Texans 24

TV: FOX            LINE: Los Angeles -5.5

D.K. Metcalf didn’t seem particularly happy with how things were going for him personally in Week 6, but the surprising Seahawks ground out another win to even their record. Seattle’s much-maligned defense shut down Kyler Murray and Arizona, only letting them reach the red zone twice, and holding them without an offensive touchdown for the entire game. Geno Smith was merely average, but he also didn’t make any big mistakes that killed his team. Bottom line? It was good enough to win. “Good enough to win” is about the way I would describe the Chargers’ performance, as Los Angeles started slow, but grinded their way back from a 10-0 deficit to top the Broncos and pull into a tie with Kansas City for first place in the AFC West. Justin Herbert wasn’t very good, but the Chargers did just enough to win, and their defense standing tall to keep them in the game when the offense was far from its best is noteworthy. For a team that tends to find ways to lose when they play well, doing the exact opposite is a good sign.

Look smart to your friends:

-Stopping Austin Ekeler is a tough ask for any defensive player, but Jordyn Brooks could be up to the challenge. He has 9+ tackles in 15 straight games, the longest such streak by any player since 2000.

-Speaking of Ekeler, he joined Lenny Moore as the only players ever with 25+ rushing touchdowns and 25+ receiving touchdowns in their first six seasons.

The pick: Chargers 38 Seahawks 30

TV: FOX            LINE: Kansas City -2.5

I guess the temptation would be to say that the Bills made some sort of statement against the Chiefs last week, but I’m not so sure about that. What is fair to say about Kansas City is that they’ve looked pedestrian more often than we’re used to, and their big wins – against Arizona and Tampa Bay – are against teams that we now know have obvious problems. The sky certainly isn’t falling, but the Chiefs have some fine-tuning to do. San Francisco might have laid the egg of the week against Atlanta last Sunday. I thought the game might be close, but the Niners never took control after tying the game at 14. What was most surprising was seeing the Falcons hold San Francisco scoreless in the entire second half, with the 49ers going punt, punt, interception, turnover on downs, before ending the game with an ultimately fruitless drive. One other thing is clear: This is a different defense when Nick Bosa doesn’t play.

Look smart to your friends:

-The Chiefs’ offense gets all the attention, but Nick Bolton has quietly been a force for the defense. He is one of just two players in the league (Jordyn Brooks) with 9+ tackles in each of the first six weeks this season.

-Jimmy Garoppolo might not have bathed himself in glory when the Niners played Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV, but he had 251 yards, 2 touchdowns and a 114.7 passer rating in his only regular-season start against the Chiefs, in 2018.

The pick: Chiefs 33 49ers 24

TV: NBC            LINE: Miami -7

If anyone would like to explain to me how the Steelers bottled up Tom Brady despite three-quarters of their secondary being out with injury and how Mitch Trubisky came in in relief of a concussed Kenny Pickett and looked better than he has in years, making several big throws to ice the game, I’d love to hear it. As it stands, Pittsburgh is somehow only a game back in the AFC North and already has a win over Cincinnati. Miami gave it the old college try against Minnesota, but it’s a pretty simple story for the Dolphins; unless Tua Tagovailoa plays, they simply don’t have the explosiveness to beat better teams. Tagovailoa should be back for this game, which means Miami should be able to right themselves and try to keep pace in a suddenly hyper-competitive AFC East. Who would have thought that only the Jets would have the division’s only win over Miami at this juncture?

Look smart to your friends:

-Who leads the NFL with 6.5 sacks so far this season? It’s not Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, or a Bosa brother, it’s Pittsburgh’s Alex Highsmith, who has 4.5 of those sacks on the road this year.

-Tyreek Hill’s 12-catch, 177-yard performance last week was his eighth-career game with 10+ catches and 150+ receiving yards, the most ever by a player in his first seven seasons.

The pick: Dolphins 30 Steelers 24

TV: ESPN            LINE: New England -8

The song is the same, somehow, in Chicago. The new regime didn’t draft Justin Fields, and they sure seem confused as to the best way to deploy him. Fields has dynamic tendencies, but it’s clear that he and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy aren’t in sync and don’t have a big menu of plays that they trust. Worse yet, when they do get something going, a pass-catcher usually manages to mess it up, which cost the Bears a win last week. Do we have a quarterback controversy brewing in New England? Bailey Zappe carved up Cleveland’s defense last week, and we know that Bill Belichick isn’t afraid to go with his gut at quarterback, draft status, or contract be damned. No one is laughing at the Matt Patricia-Joe Judge offensive brain trust anymore because Zappe had some really easy pitch-and-catch throws against what is supposed to be a good defense. Oh, and Belichick’s defense turned over Jacoby Brissett three times. I guess the old guy isn’t totally washed without Tom Brady, after all.

Look smart to your friends:

-Fields’ passing numbers are not good, but he is bidding for his third-straight Monday Night outing with 300+ total yards (pass and rush) and a touchdown pass.

-Everyone’s talking about Zappe, but Rhamondre Stevenson has been excellent in the backfield. He’s going for his fourth-straight home game with 100+ scrimmage yards.

The pick: Patriots 31 Bears 14