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NFL Week 8: Picks and preview
Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today Images

NFL Week 8: Picks and preview

NFL Week 8 is here, and we’ve reached a strange inflection point. This might be the correct time to finally stop assuming that presumed powerhouse teams and their presumed powerhouse quarterbacks — hello, Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers, and Tampa Bay and Tom Brady — are going to turn their seasons around. It also might be time to start believing in some teams and quarterbacks who, shall we say, did not have a track record that warranted such belief before the season started. 

On that front, good morning to Daniel Jones and the 6-1 Giants and Geno Smith and the first-place Seahawks. Of course, we still need lighthouses to guide us, things we can count on, and so it goes that the Chiefs are quietly 5-2 after throttling San Francisco on the road. Through seven weeks, there are only seven teams with 5 or more wins, and three of them have played only 6 games. In other words, parity (read: mediocrity) reigns supreme, which one would imagine has the late Pete Rozelle smiling down in satisfaction. 

Week 8 brings games that looked like showdowns but now feel like reckonings; Tampa Bay plays host to Baltimore on Thursday, and the Packers travel to Buffalo on Sunday night. Speaking of the aforementioned Giants and Seahawks, they’ll do battle in what looks like the game of the week. I didn’t see that coming. Did you? Let’s get to the games.

Point spreads are from DraftKings.com and are current as of 11 a.m. Thursday.

NOTE: Pick with spread is in bold

Last Week: 5-9 (Season: 49-57-2)

 BYE: Kansas City, LA Chargers

 
1 of 16

NFL Week 8: Picks and preview

NFL Week 8: Picks and preview
Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today Images

Week 8 is here, and we’ve reached a strange inflection point. This might be the correct time to finally stop assuming that presumed powerhouse teams and their presumed powerhouse quarterbacks – hello, Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers, and Tampa Bay and Tom Brady – are going to turn their seasons around. It also might be time to start believing in some teams and quarterbacks who, shall we say, did not have a track record that warranted such belief before the season started. On that front, good morning to Daniel Jones and the 6-1 Giants and Geno Smith and the first-place Seahawks. Of course, we still need lighthouses to guide us, things we can count on, and so it goes that the Chiefs are quietly 5-2 after throttling San Francisco on the road. Through seven weeks, there are only seven teams with 5 or more wins, and three of them have only played 6 games. In other words, parity (read: mediocrity) reigns supreme, which one would imagine has the late Pete Rozelle smiling down in satisfaction. Week 8 brings games that looked like showdowns but now feel like reckonings; Tampa Bay plays host to Baltimore on Thursday, and the Packers travel to Buffalo on Sunday night. Speaking of the aforementioned Giants and Seahawks, they’ll do battle in what looks like the game of the week. I didn’t see that coming. Did you? Let’s get to the games.

Point spreads are from DraftKings.com and are current as of 11 a.m. Thursday.

NOTE: Pick with spread is in bold

Last Week: 5-9 (Season: 49-57-2)

 BYE: Kansas City, LA Chargers

 
2 of 16

BALTIMORE (4-3) AT TAMPA BAY (3-4) (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

BALTIMORE (4-3) AT TAMPA BAY (3-4) (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Tampa Bay -2

The good news: Baltimore is 4-3 and tied for the AFC North lead, and they already have a win over co-leader Cincinnati. The bad news: The Ravens have not closed games, which is unbecoming of a team with such a dynamic running game. Baltimore has been outscored 71-25 in the fourth quarter this year, which is a big reason why they’re 4-3 and not 6-1 or 7-0, and only two penalties on Cleveland saved the Ravens on Sunday. Plenty of people are pointing out that Mike Evans’ drop of a perfectly-thrown, surefire touchdown on Tampa Bay’s opening drive was a killer of a play. Evans himself said, “No one play is the sole reason you lose, but that was definitely the biggest reason…I seen the life go out of us.” Okay, fine, and good on him for taking accountability, but that stuff has happened to Tom Brady before, and it hardly ever matters. Vintage Brady is inevitable, like Thanos, or some toilet discomfort the morning after atomic hot wings. Is Tampa going in the tank 90 seconds into the game because of a drop? I smell bigger problems.

Look smart to your friends:

-Calais Campbell is still getting it done, even in his mid-30s. He had a sack and a forced fumble last week and has 10 tackles for loss and 6 sacks in his past five Thursday games.

-Vita Vea figures to be critical to stopping Baltimore’s ground game, and the last time the teams met, he had a career-high nine tackles.

The pick: Buccaneers 26 Ravens 23

 
3 of 16

DENVER (2-5) VS JACKSONVILLE (2-5) (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET)

DENVER (2-5) VS JACKSONVILLE (2-5) (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

STREAMING: ESPN+            LINE: Jacksonville -2.5

Look at the good ol’ NFL, sending its best and brightest to London. Brett Rypien had a chance to make things wonderfully uncomfortable with Russell Wilson in Denver, but alas, he proved once and for all that he is merely Brett Rypien. Denver needs Wilson back, but what they really need is an exorcism, given that their big offseason looks like a disaster, and they’re potentially shopping guys like Jerry Jeudy. Having said all that, is it too much to ask for a “Let’s Ride” in a British accent from Wilson after this game? Assuming he plays, of course. I really thought Jacksonville had it going through three games. They were 2-1, had just gotten done throttling the Chargers on the road, and then…the bottom fell out. The Jags have committed 9 turnovers while forcing just one in their four losses since, and all four defeats have been by one score or less. That’s the details jumping up to bite you. What’s also biting them is their defense, which looked impenetrable through three weeks, and has been a sieve ever since.

Look smart to your friends:

-He seems to have entered the dog house to some degree, but running back Melvin Gordon ranks second among running backs in scrimmage yards (8,737) since he entered the league in 2015.

-With James Robinson traded, Travis Etienne is officially the man in the Jacksonville backfield, and he’s looking for his fourth-straight game with 100+ scrimmage yards.

The pick: Broncos 24 Jaguars 20

 
4 of 16

CAROLINA (2-5) AT ATLANTA (3-4) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

CAROLINA (2-5) AT ATLANTA (3-4) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

TV: FOX            LINE: Atlanta -4

You could have made a lot of money betting the Panthers to win by more than a touchdown last Sunday. In fact, I’d imagine that would have gotten you the best odds on a single bet of any game this NFL season. Alas, no one could have envisioned P.J. Walker outplaying Tom Brady or the under-manned, under-talented Panthers suddenly donning their big-boy shoes. I don’t think you can draw any sweeping conclusions from Carolina’s performance, but Steve Wilks deserves a lot of credit for having his team ready to go. Atlanta ran into a buzz-saw named Joe Burrow last week, which was somewhat predictable, particularly after A.J. Terrell went down with a hamstring injury in the first quarter. Deprived of one of the best cover men in the league, the Falcons were helpless to stop Cincinnati’s fully-armed and operational battle station offense. The Falcons fought back admirably, but they seem like a very simple team to evaluate: Their offense is solid but not nearly good enough to overcome their no-good, very bad defense. Still might be enough to win the NFC South!

Look smart to your friends:

-Who was Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded quarterback of Week 7? It was not Patrick Mahomes. It was not Geno Smith. It was, you guessed it, P.J. Walker, who racked up his first career start with 2+ touchdown passes and a 100+ passer rating.

-Only three quarterbacks in the league have 7+ touchdown passes and 3+ rushing touchdowns this season. Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and, you guessed it, Marcus Mariota.

The pick: Falcons 30 Panthers 20

 
5 of 16

CHICAGO (3-4) AT DALLAS (5-2) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

CHICAGO (3-4) AT DALLAS (5-2) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

TV: FOX            LINE: Dallas -9.5

Well, count me among the people who didn’t have the Bears going on the road and rolling over the Patriots in a game that was over sometime around the end of the third quarter. I wouldn’t say that the Bears really got their passing game going, but they got a little more out of Justin Fields in that department, and more importantly, Fields led a rushing attack that piled up a whopping 243 yards. The Bears have an identity, and maybe, just maybe, they’re starting to embrace it and put Fields in a position to succeed on a play-to-play basis. The final score suggests that the Cowboys rolled over Detroit, but the reality is that Dallas was in an absolute rock fight for the majority of the game, and without Micah Parsons’ hustle play to bring down Brock Wright and Dan Campbell’s decision not to challenge the play, and at least get a better spot (Wright was indeed short), the Cowboys would have never avoided the Jamaal Williams fumble that prevented the Lions from taking a 13-10 fourth-quarter lead. Still, Dallas’ defense saved them during Dak Prescott’s absence, so it stands to reason that the script would be the same in his first game back.

Look smart to your friends:

-Roquan Smith might have wanted out of Chicago before the season started, but he’s been balling out ever since. He leads the league with 78 tackles and has 8+ tackles in all seven games so far this year.

-Parsons racked up his 20th sack in Week 7 in just his 23rd career game. That ties him for the third-fewest games to 20 sacks since the stat became official in 1982.

The pick: Cowboys 27 Bears 23

 
6 of 16

MIAMI (4-3) AT DETROIT (1-5) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

MIAMI (4-3) AT DETROIT (1-5) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
JIM RASSOL/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK

TV: CBS            LINE: Miami -3.5

For one quarter against the Steelers, Miami played like a team that deserves to be mentioned among the league’s best. The next 45 minutes were a flattering reflection on their defense (and a not-so-flattering one on the Steelers’ offense) but a problematic experience for anyone wanting to crown their Tua-led offense. The Dolphins only got 3 points after the first quarter, and they were as much a byproduct of Mike Tomlin’s clock mismanagement as anything. Fortunately for Miami, they get the Lions, whose defense stinks (that’s a technical, football-insider term). Speaking of Detroit, the Lions battled Dallas on the road in a way that you’d normally be happy with, except all it did was result in a loss that dropped Dan Campbell’s team to 1-5. There were issues with a challenge that never came, a subsequent play call that might have been different, and then just a complete folding of the tents after that. What probably shouldn’t be lost in the wash is that Detroit still had the ball on the 1-yard-line with a chance to go up 13-10 early in the fourth quarter, and Jamaal Williams fumbled. Good teams don’t have that happen.

Look smart to your friends:

-Miami didn’t have much of a running attack through three weeks, but Raheem Mostert has emerged of late, averaging 77.5 yards per game and just under 5 yards per carry over his last four contests.

-Yes, the Lions are bad. Yes, it bums me out to write that. BUT: Jared Goff still cooks at home. He’s got a 115+ passer rating in 5 of his past 7 home starts and has 10 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions in three home starts this year.

The pick: Dolphins 34 Lions 31

 
7 of 16

PITTSBURGH (2-5) AT PHILADELPHIA (6-0) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

PITTSBURGH (2-5) AT PHILADELPHIA (6-0) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

TV: CBS            LINE: Philadelphia -10.5

Kenny Pickett made some plays in the Steelers’ 16-10 loss to the Dolphins, but make no mistake, he also was at the top of the list of reasons that Pittsburgh lost a winnable game. His second interception was a poor throw, and his final pick (they both came within the last four minutes of the game) was a poor decision. The Steelers are going to let him develop and live with the consequences. They’d probably just as soon skip this game. Philly is unbeaten, of course, but there’s the matter of the very pesky New York Giants, who are just a game behind, as well as the healed-up Dallas Cowboys, just two games back. The Eagles look very much like one of the three best teams in the league, and they have a very soft schedule the rest of the way. Can anyone stop them, particularly now that they’ve added Robert Quinn to the fold? I’ve scoured the NFC and can’t find a worthy candidate. The Steelers certainly won’t be one this week.

Look smart to your friends:

-Pickett leads all rookie quarterbacks in completions, with 87, and is second in passing yards, with 771. Please do not look up his interceptions, however. Just trust me.

-Look for a big game out of A.J. Brown. The talented receiver ripped up the Steelers for 6 catches, 153 yards, and a touchdown in his only prior outing against them.

The pick: Eagles 30 Steelers 14

 
8 of 16

ARIZONA (3-4) AT MINNESOTA (5-1) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

ARIZONA (3-4) AT MINNESOTA (5-1) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

TV: FOX            LINE: Minnesota -3.5

I reserve the right to remain wholly unimpressed by the Cardinals’ offense. “Chris, you’re such a hater, they scored 42 points!” you say. “Give them some credit!” you cry. Kyler Murray went 20-for-29 for 204 yards and a touchdown. Good for him. The Cardinals got some nice running from Eno Benjamin. Delightful. DeAndre Hopkins had 10 catches for 103 yards in his return. Also nice. The Cards still went 3-and-out on three of their first four second-half possessions, and scuffled in the red zone in the first half. I’m sorry, but they’re just “meh.” You can make a case that no team in the league is flying lower under the radar than the Vikings. Now, that might be because seasoned observers assume the roof is going to cave in eventually, but it hasn’t done so yet, and Minnesota appears ready to cruise to the NFC North title. The real question with the Vikings is simple, and yet won’t be answered for months: When the games matter more, when they become playoff games, will the team – and Kirk Cousins – perform differently for Kevin O’Connell than they did for Mike Zimmer?

Look smart to your friends:

-Here’s a deep dive for you: Isaiah Simmons and Marco Wilson became the first Cardinals teammates with pick-sixes in the same game since Week 3 of 2015, when Justin Bethel and Tyrann Mathieu accomplished the feat.

-Dalvin Cook doesn’t really get the publicity that he should; he’s still one of the most productive backs in the league. He averages 110.5 scrimmage yards per game, good for third among active players.

The pick: Vikings 28 Cardinals 27

 
9 of 16

LAS VEGAS (2-4) AT NEW ORLEANS (2-5) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

LAS VEGAS (2-4) AT NEW ORLEANS (2-5) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

TV: CBS            LINE: Las Vegas -1

Josh Jacobs is on quite the heater. After rushing for 192 yards in the first three games of the season, in which the Raiders went 0-3, he’s got 441 in his last three, to go with 6 touchdowns and a whopping 6.4 yards per carry. It’s not surprising that Las Vegas is 2-1 in those games, and one questionable play call from being 3-0. The Raiders still have lots of work to do, but Jacobs performing like a workhorse gives the rest of the offense even more room to operate, and more importantly, helps the league’s 26 th -ranked scoring defense by keeping it on the sidelines more often. The whole point of playing Andy Dalton at quarterback over a banged-up Jameis Winston is that Dalton won’t hurt you with turnovers the way Winston so often does. Dalton did his best Famous Jameis impersonation against the Cardinals, throwing a pair of game-changing pick-sixes that turned a 14-14 tie into a 28-14 halftime deficit. The NFC South isn’t out of reach, but unforced errors like the ones that cost New Orleans a gettable game are the type that tend to haunt teams late in the season.

Look smart to your friends:

-How much of a tear is Jacobs on? He is just the fifth player since 2000 with 140+ rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in three straight games.

-Sure, it’s a different NFL now than 20 years ago, but this is still impressive: With two catches, Alvin Kamara will pass LaDainian Tomlinson for the second-most catches by a running back in his first six seasons.

The pick: Raiders 33 Saints 24

 
10 of 16

NEW ENGLAND (3-4) AT NY JETS (5-2) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

NEW ENGLAND (3-4) AT NY JETS (5-2) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

TV: CBS            LINE: New England -2.5

Admit it. You, like me, were ready to throw your hands up and resign yourself to 15 more years of Bill Belichick genius. He was going to end up giving the starting job to Bailey Zappe, trade Mac Jones to some sucker team, and win five more Super Bowls. I had the whole thing planned out. Then the Bears came to town, chased Jones from the game, briefly succumbed to ZappeMania, then flattened him and the rest of New England’s team. Jones will start this week, and the Pats are suddenly a floundering 3-4. Breece Hall going down is a major loss for the Jets. He was the clear front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year before tearing his ACL. Trading for James Robinson was New York’s answer, and all things considered, that’s not a bad move. The Jets’ defense is going to be under even more pressure as a result of this, and so is Zach Wilson. I have more confidence in the defense than I do Wilson.

Look smart to your friends:

-This is a big game for Belichick; a win would give him 325 for his career and jump him past George Halas for second-most all-time behind Don Shula (347).

-Robinson figures to get a significant amount of work right off the bat, and historically he’s had success against the AFC East, with 100+ scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown in two of his three career games against the division.

The pick: Jets 23 Patriots 20

 
11 of 16

TENNESSEE (4-2) AT HOUSTON (1-4-1) (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

TENNESSEE (4-2) AT HOUSTON (1-4-1) (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

TV: CBS            LINE: Tennessee -2.5

Tennessee looks like a team in full control of the AFC South, and yet, I remain wholly unimpressed with them in just about every way. I’m not sure what’s supposed to be impressive about them. Derrick Henry is getting things going with three straight 100-yard games, but aside from that, what is there? I don’t see Ryan Tannehill suddenly catching fire, and the defense is merely average. They’re like the Cardinals for me, just in the AFC and slightly better. Houston at least knows what they are; they’re a rebuilding team hurtling towards a new quarterback in next year’s draft. Brandin Cooks might be playing his last game in a Texans uniform in this one, too. Really though, the rest of the season in Houston is mostly about the development of young talent. Kind of liberating, really, to not care about wins and losses. Though I would imagine Texans fans are kind of sick of that dynamic.

Look smart to your friends:

-Here is what I will call a completely insane statistic. We know Henry is great, but he’s been otherworldly against Houston. He’s going for his fourth-straight game against the Texans with 200+ rushing yards and 2+ rushing touchdowns, dating back to 2019.

-Look for a solid game out of corner Desmond King. He’s going for his third divisional game in a row with 6+ tackles, and 2+ passes defensed.

The pick: Titans 24 Texans 14

 
12 of 16

WASHINGTON (3-4) AT INDIANAPOLIS (3-3-1) (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

WASHINGTON (3-4) AT INDIANAPOLIS (3-3-1) (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Andrew Nelles/Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

TV: FOX            LINE: Indianapolis -2.5

I told you, didn’t I? Taylor Heinicke would end up galvanizing the Commanders and playing better than Carson Wentz, and wouldn’t you know it, Washington rallied from a 14-3 deficit – one partially created by a Heinicke pick-six – and roared back for a 23-21 win. Heinicke’s overall numbers weren’t all that impressive, but unlike Wentz, he seems to have a knack for making the right play in big moments. Will that last for more than a few games? Not necessarily. The Colts have made a move at quarterback, and it’s both a shocker and a decision that might have happened above head coach Frank Reich. Sam Ehlinger is going to start for the rest of the season, and Matt Ryan has been kicked to the curb for performance reasons. It’s hard not to read between the lines and conclude that owner Jim Irsay was behind the decision. The Colts aren’t even out of the race, but they’re behaving like they are at the most important position on the field. It’s curious, to say the least.

Look smart to your friends:

-Terry McLaurin gets a lot of attention, and Jahan Dotson was off to a fast start before getting hurt, but Curtis Samuel actually leads the Commanders with 39 receptions through the first seven games.

-Yannick Ngakoue might be a big factor in this game. He’s got five sacks in his past four games against NFC East opponents.

The pick: Commanders 21 Colts 17

 
13 of 16

SAN FRANCISCO (3-4) AT LA RAMS (3-3) (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

SAN FRANCISCO (3-4) AT LA RAMS (3-3) (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

TV: FOX            LINE: San Francisco -1.5

As we all predicted, last year’s NFC Championship Game participants are looking up in the standings at the Seattle Seahawks. The Niners should be able to get Christian McCaffrey more involved in the offense with a week of practice under his belt, which theoretically means they’ll be more dangerous. San Francisco couldn’t keep up with Kansas City last week, which in a vacuum is no great sin, but they’ll only be a true Super Bowl threat if they can get enough offense to complement their defense. Los Angeles is, I don’t know, disappointing? Frustrating? All of the above apply. The Rams are still a two-man team offensively; if Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp aren’t making things happen, Los Angeles gets bogged down easily. Odell Beckham Jr. doesn’t seem like a realistic option to help for at least another six weeks, if at all, so Sean McVay is going to have to scheme open some easy non-Kupp throws for Stafford and do it all with a battered, ineffective offensive line. Not great!

Look smart to your friends:

-McCaffrey was the Panthers’ only weapon in a loss to the Rams in Week 6, putting up 158 scrimmage yards. He’ll be going for his third straight game against Los Angeles with 150+ scrimmage yards.

-Is Ben Skowronek the answer as a second option after Kupp? Probably not, if we’re being honest, but he is bidding for his third game in a row with 5+ receptions.

The pick: 49ers 27 Rams 23

 
14 of 16

NY GIANTS (6-1) AT SEATTLE (4-3) (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

NY GIANTS (6-1) AT SEATTLE (4-3) (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA TODAY NETWORK

TV: FOX            LINE: Seattle -1.5

Ah, now we’ve arrived at what was a very predictable game of the week. Everyone assumed before the season started that this would be a battle of NFC contenders and that the Seahawks would be leading the NFC West. New York’s 6-1 start has been defined by toughness, resiliency, Saquon Barkley, and quarterback Daniel Jones avoiding the huge mistake. Against the Seahawks, their defense might be the biggest factor. New York is sixth in scoring defense, but 19 th in yards allowed, and their 5.7 yards per carry allowed is the worst in the league. Geno Smith might be the best story in the NFL this year. I can’t help but be happy for a guy who was written off and cited as the main reason why the Seahawks would be one of the NFL’s worst teams this year. Not only does he look like he’s the real deal, but he’s also been audibling his offense into big plays with regularity. Couple that with extremely accurate passing, and you’ve got a devastating mix.

Look smart to your friends:

-Other teams like the Bears, Browns and Ravens love to run the ball, but it’s actually the Giants, at 173.4 yards per game, who lead the NFL in rushing this season.

-Smith’s 73.5 completion percentage is the fifth-highest by a quarterback in his team’s first seven games of the season since 1970. Not bad, wouldn’t you say?

The pick: Seahawks 26 Giants 23

 
15 of 16

GREEN BAY (3-4) AT BUFFALO (5-1) (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

GREEN BAY (3-4) AT BUFFALO (5-1) (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

TV: NBC            LINE: Buffalo -10.5

Well, here’s how bad things have gotten for the Packers; Aaron Rodgers has never been this big of an underdog in his career. It’s hard to find fault with the point spread, though. Buffalo looks borderline unstoppable, and the Packers can’t get out of the mud, particularly on offense, where Rodgers’ frustration grows with each passing week, there aren’t reliable receiving targets beyond Allen Lazard, and an offense that was supposed to impose its will on the ground hasn’t been able to do so for about a month. The Bills remain the best team in the NFL and vanquishing the Chiefs, while it didn’t have any symbolic significance, was still a sign that Josh Allen and company can take their show on the road and have just as much success. I hesitate to say that Buffalo’s one major issue – the lack of a running game – is even an issue at all. It’s hard to argue with the results, no?

Look smart to your friends:

-Quay Walker has been a bright spot for Green Bay’s defense. He’s one of just two rookies – Devin Lloyd is the other – with seven games of 5+ tackles this season.

-Allen is 3-0 as a starter on Sunday Night Football and has 3+ touchdown passes and a 105+ passer rating in six of his last seven prime-time games.

The pick: Bills 40 Packers 28

 
16 of 16

CINCINNATI (4-3) AT CLEVELAND (2-5) (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

CINCINNATI (4-3) AT CLEVELAND (2-5) (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Sam Greene / USA TODAY NETWORK

TV: ESPN            LINE: Cincinnati -3

The Bengals are officially starting to cook. Joe Burrow and the offense looked unstoppable against the Falcons, with all three of his wide receivers having big games. Burrow’s confidence and swagger are back, and that’s bad news for the rest of the AFC North because when the Bengals get going, they have an offensive gear that the rest of the division can’t match. A road win here would more or less turn the division into a two-horse race. Cleveland is officially in put up or shut up mode, and judging by the Kareem Hunt rumors that are floating around, they might have already decided to shut up. The schedule doesn’t get any easier after this game, and if the Browns can’t find a way to cut down the turnovers – they have nine in their last four games – and hold serve at home, it won’t matter if Deshaun Watson hits the ground running, because, by the time he gets back, Cleveland will have been left in the dust.

Look smart to your friends:

-Burrow’s monster game last week was historic; he became just the third player ever with 475+ passing yards, 3+ passing touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown in a single game.

-Nick Chubb continues to be a bright spot in a disappointing season. He leads the NFL with 740 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns and is the fifth player ever with 8+ rushing touchdowns in each of his first five seasons.

The pick: Bengals 30 Browns 28

Chris Mueller is the co-host of The PM Team with Poni & Mueller on Pittsburgh's 93.7 The Fan, Monday-Friday from 2-6 p.m. ET. Owner of a dog with a Napoleon complex, consumer of beer, cooker of chili, closet Cleveland Browns fan. On Twitter at @ChrisMuellerPGH – please laugh.

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