Two playoff hopefuls will meet up this Sunday when the 4-2 Seattle Seahawks host the 4-2 Cleveland Browns at 4:05 p.m. ET. This is a classic battle between an explosive offense and an elite defense, but which unit has the advantage in Week 8?
Spread: Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under: 38.5, Moneyline: Seahawks -180 | Browns +152
As the Seahawks prepare to host the Browns on Sunday afternoon, the biggest story leading up to this game revolves around Deshaun Watson. On Wednesday afternoon, the Browns ruled out Watson for Week 8, meaning P.J. Walker will make his second start of the season.
Walker has been — in a word — terrible in two games played this year. He has the worst QB rating (48.2) and the lowest completion percentage (50 percent) of any quarterback in the league who's attempted more than 40 passes in 2023. Walker has three interceptions, a fumble and no touchdown passes in two games, yet the Browns are 2-0 in those contests because the defense and running game bailed him out both times.
Well, half of that equation will be compromised in Week 8, as running back Jerome Ford has also been ruled out for the game. Kareem Hunt, who started the season on the couch and is averaging a career-low 3.2 yards per carry in four games, will get the start.
Can you tell where we're going with this?
If you acted upon my "Beat the Line" story from earlier in the week, you're holding a Seahawks -3 ticket at a great price. This is the most important half-point in NFL betting, but we're still fine with laying the 3.5 here.
The Browns can't keep getting away with abysmal quarterback play. Cleveland somehow beat the Indianapolis Colts last week thanks to a 69-yard touchdown by Ford, a fumble recovered for a touchdown, a Myles Garrett blocked field goal attempt and three 54+-yard field goals by Dustin Hopkins. The Browns were outgained, 456-316, in the game and somehow escaped with a 39-38 victory.
We're expecting some regression back to the mean this week. As long as the Seahawks can take care of the ball and not beat themselves, this should be a comfortable victory.
This bet goes hand-in-hand with our Seahawks pick. We have no confidence in an offense led by Walker and Hunt to move the ball and put up points against a Seahawks defense that's starting to find its stride.
Seattle has given up only 10.0 points per game over its last three games, and it's held all three opponents to fewer than 250 total yards. If this game plays out how we expect, both of these wagers should cash.
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