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NFL Week 9 'Beat the Line' moves you do not want to miss
Week 8 gave us another golden example of why closing line value is so important in NFL betting. We jumped on the Seattle Seahawks at -3 last Monday, the spread closed -4 or -4.5 everywhere and Seattle ended up winning by four points in the end. That's a win for us on "Beat the Line," but it's a loss if you waited until Sunday afternoon to take a bad number.
Let's keep it rolling and create some more CLV with three early bets for Week 9.
2023 record: 12-7-4 CLV, 11-10-1 ATS ("MNF" pending)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
Guten tag! The Chiefs and Dolphins will face off early Sunday morning from Frankfurt, Germany, and we think we're getting a rare discount on Patrick Mahomes.
It's clear who the Dolphins are at this point in the season. Miami is 6-0 against the New England Patriots (twice), Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. That's great. The Dolphins are also 0-2 against the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles while getting outscored, 79-37.
Until the Dolphins prove they can hang with the big boys in the NFL, we have to fade them whenever they step up in class. The Chiefs are less than a field goal in this game because of their atrocious performance against the Denver Broncos, but we're expecting a bounce-back week against a beatable Dolphins secondary.
The bet to make: Chiefs -2.5 (-110 DraftKings)
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers
Matthew Stafford left the Rams' Week 8 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys after injuring his right thumb, and it's unclear whether he'll be able to play in Week 9. Even if he does tough it out, do we really think Stafford will be effective with a taped-up throwing hand? We're likely to see backup Brett Rypien in this game.
As for the Packers, they've been abysmal on offense for five weeks. Green Bay hasn't scored more than 20 points since Week 2, and the offense is averaging only 1.8 — yes, 1.8 — points per game in the first half over its last five games.
This total is already down in the 30s at some books, so we're scooping the under 40 while we still can.
The bet to make: Under 40 (-110 DK)
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Giants couldn't have looked worse in their 13-10 loss to the New York Jets in Week 8, but that'll happen in a rain-soaked game quarterbacked by Tommy Devito. Week 8 should be much different with quarterback Daniel Jones, left tackle Andrew Thomas and center John Michael Schmitz all hoping to return from injury.
If all three end up playing, there's no chance this spread closes Raiders -3 or more. Las Vegas also plays the Detroit Lions as a seven-point underdog on Monday night, and a poor performance could also move this line in our favor.
The bet to make: Giants +3 (-105 DK)
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