NFL Week 9 matchups: An insiders' guide

SUNDAY

Houston (5-3) at Jacksonville (4-4), 9:30 a.m. ET (London)

Inside Texans numbers: Houston will sorely miss defensive end J.J. Watt, who's out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. He led the league with 52 QB pressures. Even with Watt's efforts, the Texans rank 28th in pressure rate (18.8 percent), so a tumble toward the bottom could come.  

Inside Texans roster: Watt’s third season-ending injury in four years will weaken the Texans’ chances and his bid at an overdue contract adjustment. Watt’s $16 million-per-year salary – $7.5M less than Khalil Mack’s average annual value – has represented one of the NFL’s team-friendliest deals, but it doesn’t look likely a raise will come after this. The all-time great is still too valuable for the Texans to trade in a sell-low swap, particularly after they dealt Jadeveon Clowney. But going into his age-31 season, Watt will probably play for the $15.5M salary his current contract calls for in 2020.

Inside Jaguars numbers: The pass defense is stingy even without corner Jalen Ramsey, ranking seventh in EPA and opponent passer rating allowed (85.7). The pass rush has made the secondary's life easier, ranking third in pressure rate (29.2 percent) and fourth in sack rate (9.4 percent). 

Inside Jaguars roster: It’s probably more likely than not Doug Marrone will keep popular rookie Gardner Minshew at quarterback once Nick Foles returns from IR, which could happen as soon as next week. While Foles has obviously played better in bigger spots, the sixth-round rookie has outperformed expectations and could give the cap-strapped Jags a cheap contract around which to build. A Foles offseason trade would involve the Jags eating nearly $20M in dead cap cash, but considering the QB issues facing many teams, his market would likely produce more action than it did this year.

Chicago (3-4) at Philadelphia (4-4), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Bears numbers: Chicago's abysmal passing attack, ranked 30th in net yards per attempt (5.1), holds back a strong defense. The defense has the third-worst average starting field position (opponent's 31-yard line), but it has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per drive (1.56). 

Inside Bears roster: Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky era may be ending, but after the team predictably stood pat at quarterback at the trade deadline, any “Ditch Mitch” talk is tabled until next year. The Bears’ options are limited without a first-round pick due to the Khalil Mack trade, but this is a veteran-laden roster that needs a capable passer now. Trading a Day 2 pick for Nick Foles, or a Day 3 selection for Andy Dalton, should be an avenue for the QB-starved Bears. Free agency will bring worse options.

Inside Eagles numbers: When the Eagles take care of the football, they win. Philadelphia is 4-0 with one or zero turnovers, 0-4 with two turnovers or more. Protecting the ball will be essential against a Bears defense ranked eighth in takeaway rate (14.1 percent). 

Inside Eagles roster: Philadelphia’s 218 rushing yards against Buffalo in Week 8 were the Eagles most in five years. An elite offensive line and revamped backfield could aid an inconsistent pass offense. Pro Football Focus grades the Eagles’ front as the league’s second-best blocking unit; it would be a major letdown for the team to come up short considering the investments up front (now five veteran starter deals and a first-round backup). Philadelphia’s most impressive lineman, right guard Brandon Brooks, grades as Pro Football Focus' No. 1 guard despite recovering from a January Achilles tear.

Indianapolis (5-2) at Pittsburgh (3-4), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Colts numbers: Every Colts game has been separated by a margin of seven points or less. The Colts are third in red-zone touchdown rate (66.7 percent) and 10th in third-down conversion rate (45.2 percent). 

Inside Colts roster: Although the Colts held back from big free-agent expenditures this year, despite their league-most cap space, their top signing has worked out. Justin Houston has four sacks in the past three games, giving him five for the season. Injuries limited Houston since he signed his $101 million Chiefs contract in 2015, but the 30-year-old defensive end is on his best sack and QB-hit (nine) paces since his 22-sack, 25-hit 2014 slate. The $11.5M-average annual value deal looks like a wise deviation from GM Chris Ballard’s usual free-agency conservatism.

Inside Steelers numbers: The Steelers' pass rush has dominated at home, picking up 21 sacks in four games (5.3 per game). T.J. Watt has collected 5.5 of his 6.0 sacks at Heinz Field. The elite Colts offensive line has allowed the ninth-lowest sack rate (4.5 percent).

Inside Steelers roster: At this rate, the Broncos’ decision to trade their No. 10 overall pick to the Steelers is on track to go down as a big win for a Pittsburgh franchise that rarely moves up in Round 1. Devin Bush, whose name appeared on the Broncos’ draft card before they traded back to No. 20, has 59 tackles – most among rookies and fourth most among players on teams that have already had their bye week. The flashy inside linebacker has two interceptions and four fumble recoveries. As the Broncos deal with Noah Fant growing pains, the Steelers have found their Ryan Shazier replacement.

Washington (1-7) at Buffalo (5-2), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Redskins numbers: The offense is awful in key situations, ranking 29th in red-zone touchdown rate (40 percent) and 31st in third-down conversion rate (25 percent). It is 30th in offensive EPA, ahead of only the brutal Jets and Dolphins.

Inside Redskins roster: Longtime Redskins exec Bruce Allen overruled Jay Gruden on the first-round selection of Dwayne Haskins, who has thrown four interceptions and no touchdown passes in two relief appearances this season. Rookie Haskins’ poor study habits (and shaky play) reportedly have drawn the ire of vet Adrian Peterson. Coupled with the returning Trent Williams’ plan to avoid Redskins work, this was a particularly bad week for the embattled team president. With one 10-win season on his 10-year Redskins resume, Allen is having his worst year yet in Washington and may face an uphill battle to keep his job.

Inside Bills numbers: Buffalo's offense is not getting the job done, ranking 26th in points per drive (1.48). Josh Allen is inefficient, ranking 24th in net yards per attempt (5.74) and 28th in passer rating (80.4). Allen needs a big performance against a poor Redskins defense ranked 28th in points per drive (2.25).

Inside Bills roster: It took a while due to injury, but Buffalo tight end addition Tyler Kroft is back in action and working in a triumvirate of sorts with rookie Dawson Knox and veteran blocking specialist Lee Smith. Kroft’s statistical production is mostly condensed to the 2017 season, when he caught 42 passes for 404 yards and seven touchdowns in replacing Tyler Eifert. Kroft’s $6.25 million-per-year contract may be a tad lofty, even on the stagnant tight end market. But another viable pass catcher will help the still-developing Allen, who has the Bills ranking 29th in pass offense DVOA.

Minnesota (6-2) at Kansas City (5-3), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Vikings numbers: Minnesota ranks top-10 offensively and defensively in yards per rush attempt and net yards per pass attempt. Ranked fourth in points per drive offensively and seventh defensively, the Vikings are one of just two teams (along with the 49ers) ranked in the top-10 of both categories. 

Inside Vikings roster: In the three seasons following Adrian Peterson’s 2015 rushing title, the Vikings ranked 31st, 18th and 28th in run offense DVOA. They rank seventh now and third in rushing yards (160.1 yards per game), and credit must go to the Gary Kubiak-Kevin Stefanski tandem. The Vikings’ scheme czar and play-caller, respectively, have given the team a reliable dimension it lacked for years. Kubiak worked his zone-blocking magic in Houston and Baltimore but could not jump-start Denver’s run game during his second stay there. The first-year Vikings assistant is a strong staff addition.

Inside Chiefs numbers: The Chiefs are 1-3 at home, and that's mostly the fault of their defense, which has posted an average EPA of -14.8 in Kansas City. To put into perspective how bad that is, the league-worst Falcons defense has averaged an EPA of -15.5 per game. 

Inside Chiefs roster: As the Patriots move toward recapturing the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Chiefs are fighting issues on several fronts. Beyond Patrick Mahomes’ recovery timetable, Kansas City has six starting linemen (three on offense, three on defense) uncertain for Week 9. Left tackle Eric Fisher, left guard Andrew Wylie, defensive end Frank Clark and defensive tackle Chris Jones missed Week 8; right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and defensive end Alex Okafor left the Packers game with injuries. The offensive line maladies would make this a bad week for Mahomes to return from injury.

N.Y. Jets (1-6) at Miami (0-7), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Jets numbers: Gregg Williams deserves credit for getting surprisingly decent production out of his injury-plagued defense, which has received no help from the offense. The defense has the worst average starting field position (opponent's 33.7-yard line), but it ranks 17th in fewest points allowed per drive (2.02).

Inside Jets roster: New GM Joe Douglas has not been shy about jettisoning predecessor Mike Maccagnan’s roster pieces, with his latest being this week’s trade of 2015 first-rounder Leonard Williams. But Jamal Adams profiles as a building block for the Jets, and Tuesday’s widespread reports of offers being discussed irked the Pro Bowl safety. Douglas’ defense lacks cornerstone talent beyond Adams, especially with C.J. Mosley facing an injury-marred season. The biggest test yet for the rookie GM will be mending fences with Adams, who becomes extension-eligible in January.

Inside Dolphins numbers: The Dolphins have been much more competitive since their bye week, averaging a -8.0 point differential over their past three games after averaging a -34.3 over their first four. To grab their first win, they must do better in the turnover department, as Miami has eight turnovers and one takeaway over its past three games.  

Inside Dolphins roster: Although Miami brought in Aqib Talib, the five-time Pro Bowler is on IR until at least Week 15 and was acquired for the fifth-round pick the Rams also sent. More pertinent to the 2019 Dolphins’ situation: their best player is out for the season. The Dolphins placed cornerback Xavien Howard on IR with a knee injury that is not believed to be an ACL or MCL tear. The team’s prospects for winning games take a hit, which may not be the worst thing considering this season’s mission was about acquiring assets rather than winning with a roster full of stopgap personnel.

Tennessee (4-4) at Carolina (4-3), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Titans numbers: The defense has quietly been one of the league's best, ranking fourth in fewest points allowed per drive (1.42). The Titans have taken full advantage of the league's second-best average starting field position (opponent's 24.6-yard line). 

Inside Titans roster: One of Tennessee’s big moves in its 2018 offseason was signing Dion Lewis to a four-year, $19.8 million deal. The passing-down back is the 12th-highest-paid player at his position but has been largely forgotten this season. Derrick Henry’s shifty running mate has just 32 touches for 120 yards – well off Henry’s 120-709 figures. Lewis has played all eight games this season, but he’s well off his 2017 (1,110 scrimmage yards with the Patriots) and ’18 (917 as a Titan) paces.

Inside Panthers numbers: The run defense is atrocious, ranking 32nd in EPA after allowing five touchdowns and 232 yards to the 49ers. It was the first time the Panthers have allowed over 200 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns.

Inside Panthers roster: Since re-signing tackle Daryl Williams to a one-year, $6 million deal this offseason, the Panthers have spread him thin in a strange season. The former right tackle starter has played both tackle spots and right guard in his fifth year, one featuring rookies Greg Little (Round 2) and Dennis Daley (Round 6) joining the tackle corps. Ron Rivera already called Daley Carolina’s top option at left tackle, kicking Moton to the right side and leaving Williams without a solidified role – now that top guard Trai Turner is healthy. Williams played a season-low 22 snaps in San Francisco.

Detroit (4-3-1) at Oakland (3-4), 4:05 p.m. ET

Inside Lions numbers: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are the only trio of wide receiver teammates who average over 55.0 receiving yards each per game (minimum six games played). Their performances have helped the Lions jump to fifth best in net yards per pass attempt (7.4). 

Inside Lions roster: Detroit experienced an interesting trade deadline lead-up; reportedly, it listened to offers for Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay while also being the only known team to submit a trade proposal for Broncos All-Pro corner Chris Harris. The buyer-seller duality made for interesting rumors, but the fringe-contender Lions will go into Week 9 with the personnel that has them ranked 28th in pass defense. Detroit has Slay and slot man Justin Coleman counting a combined $22.43 million on this year’s cap sheet; the duo rates as Pro Football Focus’ Nos. 51-52 corners.

Inside Raiders numbers: Oakland's pass rush is brutal, ranking last in pressure rate (14.2 percent). The lack of pressure has made life difficult on the secondary, which allows a 115.5 passer rating (fourth worst). 

Inside Raiders roster: One of the best facets of Oakland’s 2019 edition will be at less than full strength: Pro Bowl center Rodney Hudson has an ankle injury that will force him to miss time. Hudson and longtime linemate Gabe Jackson played in only full game together; the longtime Raider right guard missed this season’s first five contests. Hudson has been one of the NFL’s best centers since coming to Oakland and has not missed a game since 2015. This will be a blow to the NFL’s No. 7 rushing attack, which buoys a limited aerial arsenal.

Tampa Bay (2-5) at Seattle (6-2), 4:05 p.m. ET

Inside Buccaneers numbers: After a four-game stretch with only two turnovers, the Bucs have 11 turnovers over their past two games. They are fourth in turnover rate (18 percent), the sixth consecutive season ranking top-10 in the category. 

Inside Buccaneers roster: Teams inquired about Tampa Bay’s third-year tight end/fantasy disappointment O.J. Howard, but the Bucs resisted. It is, however, fair to wonder how Howard fits into this team’s long-term outlook. The rare modern tight end prospect with high-end blocking and receiving chops averaged 56.5 yards per game in 2018; this season: the Alabama product has 13 receptions and averages 29.3 yards per game. Bruce Arians’ offense did not feature a productive tight end in Arizona, and thus far the Bucs’ attack is not giving Howard many chances in the department that gets tight ends paid.

Inside Seahawks numbers: Russell Wilson leads the NFL in touchdown passes (17) and passer rating (115.5) and has just one interception. He has thrown for over 8.0 yards per attempt in seven of his first eight games, the 10th quarterback in the Super Bowl era to accomplish that. 

Inside Seahawks roster: After injured starters Duane Brown and D.J. Fluker returned to action last week, Seattle will have its depth tested again. Center Justin Britt suffered a torn ACL, stripping the Seahawks of their longest-tenured offensive lineman. The former second-round pick has missed just one game in his six-year career; he played a key role in the reignition of Seattle’s running game last season. Fourth-year backup Joey Hunt, a 2016 sixth-rounder, will replace Britt.

Cleveland (2-5) at Denver (2-5), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Browns numbers: Cleveland's offense has fallen well short of expectations, ranking 22nd in points per drive (1.59). That is the fault of an extremely underwhelming passing attack ranked 30th in EPA. Getting back on track will be difficult in Denver, where the Broncos' defense has allowed only 165.5 passing yards and 16.3 points per game. 

Inside Browns roster: The Browns offered the Redskins a second-round pick and a player for Trent Williams, according to longtime NFL insider John Clayton, but were again rebuffed. Cleveland benched regular left tackle Greg Robinson in advance of its New England trip, installing ex-Packer Justin McCray there. Pro Football Focus rates McCray and right tackle Chris Hubbard as bottom-10 tackles, placing this position atop Cleveland’s 2020 needs hierarchy. It may be too late for 2019, with numerous issues plaguing one of the more disappointing teams in recent memory.

Inside Broncos numbers: The defense is  stout, ranking fifth in fewest points allowed per drive (1.55). After picking up zero sacks over their first three games, the Broncos have 17 over their past five. Von Miller, who ranks sixth with 43 pressures, could make even more noise than usual against a Browns team allowing the ninth-highest sack rate (8.3 percent).

Inside Broncos roster: A neck injury will sideline Joe Flacco for more than a month and may put him on IR. In fact, he may be done for good with Denver. An issue: The Broncos compounded their Flacco mistake by restructuring his deal in September. Prior to that cap space-creating adjustment, the Broncos could have cut Flacco next year without any dead-money charges. It will now cost them $13.6 million to do so. Between stopgap quarterbacks Flacco and Case Keenum, the Broncos may have to eat $20M in dead money between this year and next.

Green Bay (7-1) at L.A. Chargers (3-5), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Packers numbers: Aaron Jones is a touchdown machine, leading the NFL with 11 scores (eight rushing, three receiving). He is the first running back since LenDale White in 2008 to score 10+ touchdowns on fewer than 150 touches through his team's first eight games. 

Inside Packers roster: Bryan Bulaga has done well to turn his career around, after injuries nearly prompted Green Bay to cut him in 2018. The right tackle bounced back from a season-ending injury in 2017 to do quality work last year and through eight games this season. A dependable Packers line serves as a key part of Aaron Rodgers’ climb back into an MVP conversation, for the first time since 2016. Bulaga, 30, has re-established himself in a contract year, grading as a top-15 Pro Football Focus tackle.

Inside Chargers numbers: The Chargers must do better holding up on third down, as their 47.8 percent conversion rate allowed ranks 30th. They made good progress in the win over Chicago, holding the Bears to 35.7 percent on third down.

Inside Chargers roster: The Bolts became the first team since 1946 to rush for fewer than 40 yards in four straight games. That led to the team firing two-stint offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. He coordinated the past four Charger offenses, after a two-year stay as Titans head coach. Whisenhunt was saddled with an injury-depleted offensive line, but the Bolts have gotten next to nothing from Melvin Gordon since he returned. QBs coach Shane Steichen, 34, will become Los Angeles’ play-caller.

New England (8-0) at Baltimore (5-2), 8:20 p.m. ET

Inside Patriots numbers: Getting third down stops may be what New England does best defensively. It has allowed a league-low 15.6 percent conversion rate on third down. That mark is 10.7 percent better than the second-ranked Cowboys, a margin equal to the difference between second best (Dallas) and 12th best (Buffalo). 

Inside Patriots roster: The Bill Belichick-era Patriots have consistently coaxed steady play from castoffs or overlooked talent on defense; this year’s dominant group is no different. Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins, combining to count less than $10 million on New England’s cap, came up big against Cleveland and grade as top-10 players at edge rusher and linebacker (per Pro Football Focus). The Lions and Browns, respectively, discarded each ex-second-rounder. Nickel Jonathan Jones, an ex-UDFA, grades as PFF’s No. 2 overall corner. These latest performance spikes have added to the special capabilities of the Pats’ defense.

Inside Ravens numbers: Baltimore leads the NFL with 204.1 rushing yards per game (5.5 yards per attempt). Their league-leading rush offense EPA mark of 49.0 is more than twice that of any other team. The Patriots rank eighth in run defense EPA. 

Inside Ravens roster: Willie Snead has successfully bounced back from a disastrous 2017, when he fell from key Drew Brees supporting-caster to afterthought. The Saints cut ties with Snead after his 92-yard 2017, but he joined John Brown and Michael Crabtree in a re-formed 2018 Ravens receiving corps. Snead is the only member of that trio left, and the Ravens gave their slot receiver a $6 million extension to keep him through 2020. In an aerial corps centered on rookies Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin and second-year tight end Mark Andrews, Snead is a reliable presence for Lamar Jackson.

MONDAY

Dallas (4-3) at N.Y. Giants (2-6), 8:20 p.m. ET

Inside Cowboys numbers: Dallas owns third down on both sides of the ball, ranking first in third-down conversion rate offensively (51.9 percent) and allowing the second-lowest third-down conversion rate defensively (26.3 percent). Give credit to Dak Prescott, who has thrown a first down on 48.1 percent of his third-down passing plays (fourth best). 

Inside Cowboys roster: Dallas’ Michael Bennett addition flew somewhat under the radar, likely due to the modest price (a seventh-round pick) the team paid and the defensive end’s lack of recent production. However, even on a Patriots team that decreased his snaps, the ex-Seahawks and Eagles starter posted 2.5 sacks and four quarterback hits. The 11th-year veteran will pose a threat as an interior rusher on passing downs, between ends DeMarcus Lawrence and Robert Quinn. Bennett (17.5 sacks from 2017-18) is only on Dallas’ books for $2.7 million and has no guaranteed 2020 money.

Inside Giants numbers: Daniel Jones had a strong bounceback game against the Lions, throwing for 7.9 yards per attempt after averaging 5.4 over his previous three games. When Jones has averaged over 7.0 yards per attempt, the Giants have scored 25.0 points per game; when he has averaged under 7.0, the Giants have scored 12.7 points per game.

Inside Giants roster: The Giants surrendered a 2020 third-round pick, and either a 2021 fourth- or fifth-rounder, for a player with two months left on his deal. Dave Gettleman acquisition of defensive end Leonard Williams from the Jets is an odd buyer’s trade, but the Giants’ GM is evidently higher on Williams than other teams or the advanced metrics community. The former No. 6 overall pick is only 25 and has never missed a game; he also has just seven sacks since the start of the 2017 season. This seems like a strange choice to bet on Williams bouncing back, because even if he does, it will take a big contract to keep him.