NFL Week 9: Picks and preview

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Indianapolis -10.5

What you need to know:  For at least one week, the Jets got to enjoy nice things, and in just about the most unexpected way imaginable. Mike White, in his first game starting after Zach Wilson’s injury, threw for 405 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 34-31 upset of the Bengals. White joined Cam Newton as the only two quarterbacks in league history to throw for at least 400 yards in their first career start. The Colts had everything going early against Tennessee, and then things fell apart in ugly, spectacular fashion. Carson Wentz threw an inexcusable interception to give Tennessee its final score of regulation, and while he led a swift touchdown drive to send the game to overtime, his backbreaking pick in the extra period led directly to the Colts’ loss. Indianapolis is still in the wild-card chase in a mediocre AFC, but the Colts have to handle the lesser teams on their schedule.

On the spot: Jets QB Mike White. White delivered the surprise performance of the 2021 season, but to be fair, most of his throws were short, and his teammates did much of the work. Will he and the Jets open things up a little more this week?

Colts QB Carson Wentz:  Any and all talk of Wentz’s improvement this year was tempered by two hideous interceptions that directly led to Indianapolis’ loss to the Titans. The Colts have the talent to make the playoffs, but Wentz’s sloppy play could derail them.

The pick: Colts 31 Jets 13

TV: CBS        Line: Cincinnati -2.5

What you need to know:  Cleveland laid an egg in a big game, and while Baker Mayfield didn’t appear hindered by his shoulder injury, the Browns never got anything going against the Steelers; even Nick Chubb and the rest of the running game couldn’t get into a groove. Odell Beckham Jr.’s unhappiness didn’t bubble up during the game, but his father’s Instagram post earlier this week caused a fracture between the team and player, and Beckham may have played his last down with Cleveland. The Bengals failed to handle success against the Jets, blowing a 31-20 fourth-quarter lead, with Joe Burrow throwing a crucial interception when Cincinnati was trying to run out the clock while holding a 31-26 advantage. Most troubling for the Bengals, though, was the fact that their previously sturdy defense gave up 405 yards to first-time starter Mike White and 511 total yards to a mostly putrid Jets offense.

On the spot: Browns QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield thrived when Beckham was lost to injury last season, throwing 11 touchdowns and 1 interception in the season’s final nine games. Will his play uptick again, now that Beckham isn’t around?

Bengals DC Lou Anarumo: Anarumo’s defense had quietly been one of the big stories of the NFL season, but getting strafed for 511 total yards by a bad offense with a first-time starter at quarterback is not a good sign.  

The pick: Browns 27 Bengals 23

TV: FOX        Line: Dallas -9

What you need to know:  The Broncos traded Von Miller to the Rams, a sign that while they might not be rebuilding, they’re also definitely not trying to compete for anything this season. That said, Denver’s performance for about the last month had already made that abundantly clear. The Broncos’ win over Washington last week was a temporary return to their winning formula from early in the season, as Teddy Bridgewater played a clean game, and the Broncos sacked Taylor Heinicke five times and picked him off twice. Dallas proved their overall depth and resilience against Minnesota, with Cooper Rush outplaying Kirk Cousins and leading the Cowboys to an impressive 20-16 road win, complete with a last-minute touchdown pass to get the win. The Cowboys are optimistic that they’ll have Dak Prescott back this week, but given Denver’s struggles, as well as Rush’s strong play, might they choose to give Prescott an extra week of rest?

On the spot: Broncos RB Melvin Gordon.  Gordon has quietly put together a solid season, with nearly 400 yards rushing and 4.5 yards per carry. He’ll have to win consistently on the early downs for Denver to have a chance to keep pace.

Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy:  All signs are ultimately pointing to the Cowboys putting Prescott back under center for this game. Will McCarthy try to be cautious and minimize the physical risk to his franchise passer, or treat things like business as usual?

The pick: Cowboys 30 Broncos 23

TV: FOX        Line: Miami -6.5

What you need to know:  The most intriguing thing about this game is the fact that the two teams tried for weeks, perhaps months, to consummate a Deshaun Watson trade, only to have Dolphins owner Stephen Ross step in and indicate that Miami would not agree to a deal unless Watson’s legal issues were settled before the trade deadline, something that was never going to happen. But hey, the failed deal wasn’t a total loss for the Dolphins; they did manage to completely nuke Tua Tagovailoa’s confidence in the process! Anyway, the less said about this matchup, the better.

On the spot: Texans QB Tyrod Taylor.  It appears that Taylor is on track to make his return to the lineup in this game, which would inject Houston with two things it desperately lacks; poised professionalism, and above-average quarterback play.

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa:  I bet Tagovailoa feels great about how his organization feels about him. Must make it a lot of fun to come to work.

The pick: Texans 27 Dolphins 21

TV: FOX        Line: New Orleans -6

What you need to know:  Atlanta laid an egg against the Panthers, never getting anything significant going offensively, and turning a slim 10-9 halftime advantage into a 19-13 loss, thanks to its offense going scoreless in the second half until a Younghoe Koo field goal with 16 seconds left. Atlanta’s remaining schedule is brutal, so unless they can take advantage of New Orleans’ unsettled quarterback situation, they could find themselves in a free fall. The Saints scored a pyrrhic victory over Tampa Bay, beating Tom Brady’s Bucs for the third straight time during the regular season, but losing Jameis Winston to a torn ACL in the process. Trevor Siemian filled in admirably, but rumors are already swirling that New Orleans could look to bring Philip Rivers on board. Rivers seems at least interested enough to listen to New Orleans’ pitch, but what remains to be seen is whether or not Sean Payton is interested in him.

On the spot: Falcons TE Kyle Pitts.  With Calvin Ridley taking time away from football to focus on his mental health, Pitts will become the focal point of the Falcons’ offense, and also command the most attention from opposing defenses. He had just two catches for 13 yards last week.

Saints HC Sean Payton:  Siemian was good in relief against the Buccaneers, throwing for 159 yards and a touchdown. But Taysom Hill appears as if he’ll be ready to go. Will Payton go with the dual-threat Hill, or stick with the hot hand?

The pick: Saints 24 Falcons 16

TV: CBS        Line: Las Vegas -3

What you need to know:  For the second time in about a month, the Raiders were rocked by another ugly incident; as bad as Jon Gruden’s leaked emails were, Henry Ruggs III facing felony charges stemming from a high-speed crash that killed a woman and her dog is exponentially worse. Las Vegas has already released Ruggs, and now interim head coach Rich Bisaccia’s job is to somehow keep his team focused in the face of truly awful off-field circumstances. The Giants nearly pulled off a win in Kansas City over the Chiefs, but now several players, including Saquon Barkley, are in COVID protocols after a host of positive tests on Tuesday. While the situation does not appear likely to turn into a full-fledged outbreak, New York might still end up short-handed for this game. On a more positive note, while the Giants lost to the Chiefs, they largely bottled up Patrick Mahomes without the benefit of a plethora of turnovers (Kansas City had two, its lowest total in almost a month).

On the spot: Raiders QB Derek Carr.  Carr offered some eloquent words while talking about Ruggs earlier this week; Las Vegas will need his leadership on and off the field if the team is to weather this latest storm and stay atop the division.

Giants HC Joe Judge:  Judge not only has to deal with a team that lost a winnable game to fall to 2-6, but also the possibility that he’ll be without several key players. He also has to know that if this season spirals completely out of control, he’ll very likely lose his job as a result.

The pick: Giants 23 Raiders 20

TV: CBS        Line: New England -3.5

What you need to know:  The Patriots took control late against the Chargers, using a pick-six of Justin Herbert to key a fourth-quarter rally en route to a 27-24 victory. New England didn’t get much from Mac Jones, but the Pats have now won two games in a row and three of their last four. The reeling Panthers provide an excellent opportunity to make it three straight victories, particularly if Sam Darnold’s sloppy play continues. Speaking of Darnold, he was once again bad against the Falcons, throwing for just 129 yards against one of the league’s weakest pass defenses. Darnold is averaging just 156 yards per game in his last four starts, and the Panthers are 1-3 in that stretch. He has been effective with his legs – he rushed for 66 yards on 8 carries against Atlanta – but the Panthers desperately need Christian McCaffrey back to give Darnold some help, and his status is still uncertain.

On the spot: Patriots QB Mac Jones.  Jones is Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded quarterback since Week 5, at 90.0. His numbers don’t quite match that grade, but the Pats are 3-1 in that time. A win puts them squarely in the playoff chase.

Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey:  As ugly as Carolina’s offense has been, the Panthers still have flickering playoff hopes. If McCaffrey returns, it stands to reason that Darnold’s play would uptick at least somewhat. Carolina desperately needs him back.

The pick: Panthers 21 Patriots 17

TV: CBS        Line: Buffalo -14.5

What you need to know:  The Bills are double-digit favorites for the second straight week, the first time that has happened since 1992, when they were double-digit favorites four weeks in a row. Interestingly, the 1992 Bills lost two games in a row during that span, but this year’s team doesn’t figure to be in similar danger. Buffalo does have some warts, despite looking like the team to beat in the AFC; in particular, the offensive line’s play has left significant room for improvement. Jacksonville was non-competitive against the Seahawks, falling behind 24-0 before scoring a cosmetic touchdown late in the fourth quarter. After a three-game stretch where they totaled 496 yards on the ground, the Jaguars’ run game was completely nonexistent for the second straight week. Trevor Lawrence had another uninspiring performance, but he was also hurt by a pair of drops, one by Marvin Jones, and one by Laviska Shenault. Jacksonville isn’t good, so losing – thereby getting a better draft position – probably isn’t a bad thing.

On the spot: Bills G Jon Feliciano.  Feliciano has been perhaps the most inconsistent performer on Buffalo’s offensive line, which looks for the moment like the team’s biggest weak spot. His – and their – play improving would be a big boost.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence is at an interesting crossroads; Jacksonville is terrible, but it isn’t all – or even mostly – his fault. Can he stay the course and continue to develop while keeping his team together? These next few months could be pivotal for his long-term outlook.

The pick: Bills 38 Jaguars 14

TV: FOX        Line: Baltimore -6

What you need to know:  Minnesota delivered one of the worst performances of Week 8, failing to take advantage of Dak Prescott’s absence, as well as a home crowd. It was another prime-time disappointment for Kirk Cousins, who threw for just 184 yards and never got going against Dallas’ defense. The Vikings have a chance to claw back in the NFC North race with a win, but if they lose, their season could spiral out of control, with a road date against the Chargers and a game against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers looming in two weeks. It felt like Baltimore was on the wrong end of a changing of the guard in the AFC North when the Bengals pasted them in Week 7, 41-17. While the Ravens licked their wounds, Cincinnati collapsed and lost to the Jets, and the Browns sputtered against Pittsburgh. A win against the Vikings would give the Ravens, who have road games against Miami and Chicago coming up, a chance to get themselves to 8-2.

On the spot: Vikings DE Everson Griffen . With Danielle Hunter out for the year with a torn pectoral muscle, much of the burden of providing a pass rush will fall to Griffen, who is second on the team behind Hunter with five sacks this year.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: Jackson had an extra week to reflect on one of his, and the Ravens’, worst performances in a long time. With the rest of the division beating each other up, a hot streak from Jackson could provide the Ravens with a big cushion in the AFC North race.

The pick: Ravens 27 Vikings 23

TV: CBS        Line: Los Angeles -2

What you need to know:  Justin Herbert delivered his second disappointing performance in a row, throwing two interceptions against New England, including a pick-six in the fourth quarter that gave the Patriots a lead they would never relinquish. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson provided 143 yards on the ground, but Herbert barely completed 50 percent of his passes, and never looked particularly comfortable. It’s up to Herbert to prove that this two-game rough patch is a blip on the radar; if it isn’t, the Chargers will suddenly have big problems. The Eagles outclassed the Lions, but that's not necessarily cause for some great celebration. Jalen Hurts had to do precious little through the air, but did make a few big plays with his legs. Despite Los Angeles’ recent struggles, the Chargers are a significant step up in class for Philadelphia, which means Hurts must be more dangerous through the air this week.

On the spot: Chargers QB Justin Herbert. This isn’t particularly complicated; as Herbert goes, so go the Chargers. He’s been bad the last two weeks, and Los Angeles is 0-2. The AFC West is there for the taking, but one of the league’s best young quarterbacks must start playing like it.

Eagles DT Javon Hargrave:  Hargrave is an extremely disruptive force and one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL, but he’s gone three weeks without a sack and has just two quarterback hits during that time. Philadelphia needs more from him in this game.

The pick: Chargers 33 Eagles 24

TV: FOX        Line: Kansas City -7.5

What you need to know:  Aaron Rodgers’ positive COVID test, and the subsequent revelation that he was not vaccinated, despite his saying in late August that he was “immunized,” has become the lead story in the NFL. In the court of public opinion, Rodgers doesn’t look great for being evasive. In practical terms, his absence makes this a much easier game for the Chiefs. Jordan Love will have a chance to prove what he can do, but this isn’t the marquee matchup it looked to be just a few days ago. Are the Chiefs just victims of bad luck, or do their offensive problems run deeper? Patrick Mahomes’ lackluster game against the Giants suggests that Kansas City has issues that won’t just work themselves out over the course of a larger sample size. The Chiefs struggled to generate explosive plays against New York, going most of the game without one of at least 20 yards. Mahomes and Andy Reid need to figure something out because it’s not like Kansas City’s defense is going to rise up and help out.

On the spot: Packers QB Jordan Love. This is Love’s big chance to show what he can do, particularly because Rodgers does not look like a sympathetic figure at the moment. Kansas City’s porous defense might give him the perfect opportunity to show his stuff.

Chiefs LB Melvin Ingram:  Ingram was disgruntled over playing time in Pittsburgh, and now will presumably have a chance to make a bigger impact with the Chiefs after a trade earlier this week. If he has anything left, it would be a boost to a very beleaguered group.

The pick: Chiefs 31 Packers 20

TV: FOX        Line: Arizona -1.5

What you need to know:  Arizona became the last unbeaten team to fall primarily because Kyler Murray had an uncharacteristic bad game and had a miscommunication with A.J. Green at the worst possible time. That was one part of the losing equation; the other was the Cardinals’ run defense, which was gashed yet again, giving up 151 yards on 34 carries and allowing Green Bay to establish a huge advantage in time of possession. If Murray’s injured ankle keeps him from playing, the defense will have even more pressure to perform. The 49ers are just going to keep rolling with Jimmy Garoppolo, though that seems like a rosier proposition than it did a few weeks ago, after he threw for 328 yards and ran for 2 touchdowns in rallying the Niners past the Bears, 33-22. Four of San Francisco’s five second-half drives ended in points, and the only one that didn’t was a series of kneel-downs at the end of the game. This game might reveal whether that was a fluke, or if Garoppolo and company are really starting to click.

On the spot: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray. There hasn’t been a definitive answer given, but unless news on Murray’s ankle gets much worse, it’s reasonable to assume he’ll start. The question then becomes how effective he can be if his usual level of mobility is compromised.

49ers DE Nick Bosa:  If Murray does play, and he isn’t as nimble as usual, Bosa, who had two sacks of Justin Fields in the win over the Bears, could have another big day in what has been another productive season.

The pick: 49ers 24 Cardinals 21

TV: NBC        Line: Los Angeles -7.5

What you need to know:  The Titans start their first week of life without Derrick Henry. The all-world running back appears likely to miss most of the rest of the season if not all of it. The Titans brought in Adrian Peterson as a possible replacement; Peterson ran for 604 yards on 156 carries with the Lions last season. No matter how Henry’s carries are distributed, one thing is obvious; Ryan Tannehill is going to have to shoulder a much heavier burden, whether he’s ready to or not. The Rams once again made a major splash move, acquiring Von Miller from the Broncos. Sean McVay’s team now boasts Miller, Aaron Donald, and Jalen Ramsey on defense, and looks to be hitting its stride on offense. Cooper Kupp might be the best receiver in the league at the moment, and Matthew Stafford’s gaudy numbers are exactly what the Rams were hoping for when they traded for him. Even with Henry not playing for Tennessee, an emphatic Los Angeles win would be a big statement.

On the spot: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill.  Much of the attention this week has focused on how the Titans will replace Henry’s production, but Tannehill, a master of play-action passing, must prove that he can continue to be effective even in the absence of the NFL’s leading rusher.

Rams LB Von Miller:  Miller isn’t what he was in his prime, but with Aaron Donald commanding a massive amount of attention from every opposing offensive line, Miller will have a chance to wreak havoc and figures to see a lot of one-on-one matchups.

The pick: Rams 34 Titans 28

TV: ESPN        Line: Pittsburgh -6

What you need to know:  Chicago’s defense held up against San Francisco for a half but eventually cratered in the second half. Khalil Mack’s absence was noticeable in the final 30 minutes, as the 49ers put up 24 points on four scoring drives. If Mack plays in this game, the Bears could take advantage of a still-developing Steelers offensive line, and perhaps force a turnover or two. If he doesn’t, Justin Fields will have his work cut out for him, to put it mildly. Pittsburgh’s defense rose to the occasion, stifling Cleveland’s rushing attack (96 yards on 23 carries) and limiting the Browns to just 10 points. The Steelers’ offense doesn’t look pretty, but there is at least an identity-forming on that side of the ball; Najee Harris gets plenty of touches, and Ben Roethlisberger tries to make a play here and there to put points on the board. Assuming the defense plays the way that they did against Cleveland, Mike Tomlin and his team will take substance over style on offense every time.

On the spot: Bears QB Justin Fields. Fields will get yet another education against a fast, attacking defense. His legs will be pivotal in keeping him out of big trouble, but he’s going to have to hit a pass or two downfield to give Chicago a chance at victory.

Steelers RB Najee Harris: Harris’ ability to churn out tough yards is starting to make a real difference for the Steelers’ offense, which doesn’t hit many big plays but seems to be building an identity. If he plays well this week, Pittsburgh should be in good shape.

The pick: Steelers 21 Bears 16