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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4). Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend: Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys betting picks, preview

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 1/10/24

Lots of fun storylines for this game. Dallas is at home, where they have often dominated this season and some think that Mike McCarthy, current Dallas coach and former Green Bay coach, needs at least one playoff win to keep his job. On the other sideline, there is absolutely no pressure on Green Bay which is hitting the road with a developing young offense featuring lightning-rod quarterback Jordan Love.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends and Odds

Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024, 4:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Dallas -7.5, Over/under: 50.5, Green Bay +285 | Dallas -365

It makes sense that Dallas is a considerable favorite though it has to give some pause given the way they often shrink in the playoffs. For what it is worth, Green Bay has won four straight against Dallas but that was with quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the mix; Love is a different animal. I am not sure this is going to be a good game, but there is intrigue even with a large spread.

Picks for Green Bay vs. Dallas

Green Bay +7.5; Jayden Reed Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

I expect Dallas will win comfortably but I am backing Green Bay because their offense has been really good down the stretch, and because of that hook. That extra half point makes a backdoor cover so very likely, even though it often does not even remotely threaten the true outcome a real possibility. Love (and Dak Prescott) have been the most productive quarterbacks in the league over the last stretch of the season and Love has shown great maturity with his young receivers. In seven of his last eight games, he has had a passer rating over 100 with just one interception over that time. I expect Dallas to get an early lead and then for Green Bay to open things up and keep pushing them. Love should make some plays with his legs too. Green Bay probably loses but they show us all something for next year.

Last week we nailed Reed on a yards prop, but this week we are honed in on his receptions (though 60+ yards is a nice way to go too). He had just four grabs last week but for big yards and in the three games before he had 6, 6, and 8 catches. He is so good with the ball after the catch that the Packers have to make sure they are taking advantage of their best weapon.

So far Dallas is taking in more money and tickets so the line is not likely to go down. That hook is everything, as long as we are getting more than +7, I like Green Bay a lot. They are not a 'dog I am looking to back to win though.

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