NFL wild-card prop bets: Cardinals vs. Rams

We've had a great weekend of NFL betting here on Yardbarker, so let's finish Super Wild Card Weekend strong with a look at Cardinals vs. Rams.

This will be the third meeting between these NFC West rivals, with each team taking one game so far this year.

The Rams are currently 3.5-point favorites at home, with an over/under set at 50 points. In their first meeting, Arizona handled business in a 37-20 win, while Los Angeles won the rematch, 30-23.

The road team won in both instances, and it's worth noting there's no better team on the road this year than Arizona (8-1 straight up, 8-1 ATS).

Cardinals vs. Rams Bets

When looking at this game, the clearest disparity that sticks out is to fade the Cardinals' run game. The Rams are an elite run defense, ranking fifth in DVOA and #1 on PFF. L.A. also allows the fifth-fewest yards per rush.

On the Arizona end, their running game does not rank favorably. They rank 22nd in the NFL in yards per rush, buoyed by Kyler Murray's 5.1 average.

PFF has the Cardinals as the third-worst run-blocking unit in the league and the 26th ranked running offense, and DVOA isn't much better (22nd).

What I hope these numbers convey is the stark difference in quality between these two teams in this facet of the game.

It also powers my favorite prop of the night.

Kyler Murray over 33.5 passing attempts (-130 on DraftKings)

If you prefer less juice, this prop is available at 34.5 (-114) on FanDuel.

As I just highlighted, I expect the Cardinals to struggle running the ball, and possibly abandon it all together. It doesn't help their cause that both James Conner and Chase Edmonds are battling injuries.

Murray has hit this mark in five straight games, averaging 42 passes per contest in that span, with no fewer than 38 in any of the five.

On the season, the Rams see the sixth-most pass attempts against them (36.8), and I'd expect that to continue in this one.

At its core, this is a fade of the Cardinals run game, and it just so happens we have some positive trends to back it up.

I think this line is far too low and offers solid value for this "MNF" playoff bout.

Murray also offers intrigue for both his passing and rushing yards over, exceeding both lines in each game against Los Angeles this season. Those games had DeAndre Hopkins, an absence that can't be overstated, so I'll be staying away.

Lean: Sony Michel rushing over

It's worth noting that Sony Michel has been the bell-cow back lately for the Rams and gets a Cardinals defense allowing the fourth-highest yards per rush average to RBs.

Michel has 18+ carries in six straight games, going over his line (55.5) in five of those six.

My hesitation with making Michel an official play is the presence of Cam Akers. The fact Akers is playing so soon after tearing his Achilles is mind-boggling, but the uncertainty around how running back carries will divvy out has me staying away.

Good luck Monday night!