NFL.com Projects the 49ers to Win the NFC West

Suddenly, people are starting to believe in the 2025 49ers.

No one seemed to like their moves in free agency when they let nine starters walk and signed no one to replace them. Instead, they're relying on lots of rookies and second-year players to establish themselves as solid starters.

And yet, NFL.com projects the 49ers to finish first in the NFC West next season.

"The Niners' fourth-place finish last season turned into a real W for Kyle Shanahan's squad, at least in terms of how the league's scheduling formula works, with the biggest threat among fellow 2024 fourth-placers on the 2025 slate being the Bears -- and they don't come to town until Week 17, by which time there should be plenty of clarity around this season," writes NFL.com analytics expert Cynthia Frelund. "As of now, San Francisco doesn't have back-to-back games in which it is not favored to win, even factoring in all the defensive turnover this offseason."

The 49ers absolutely could win their division next season, but I think they're more likely to finish last than first.

They were 1-5 against NFC West teams last season. They probably will have the worst defense in the division at least until the rookies develop. And they have to face Browns whose defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, is 9-1 in his career against Kyle Shanahan. Plus that game will be played in Cleveland in late November, which means there could be rain or snow. And Brock Purdy really struggles to pass when the ball is wet.

If the 49ers thought this was their year to make a Super Bowl run, I'm thinking they would have been more aggressive in free agency. Instead, it seems they're positioning themselves to make a run in 2026.