Where in the NFL will Odell Beckham Jr. land?
At some point in the next few weeks, free agent WR Odell Beckham Jr. will pick a new team from what is sure to be a number of suitors. Even though he’s coming off a torn ACL, Beckham showed last season he still has plenty of juice left to give a contending team in need of a boost down the stretch at what’s becoming one of the most important positions in the game. Players from a number of teams have already been recruiting him for weeks, and Beckham will have a number of options.
So where will he end up? There are three main factors to take into account:
Landing on a team that has a chance to do damage in the playoffs is important, as is finding one with a quality quarterback who Beckham has chemistry. He certainly won’t take that for granted given some of the guys he’s played with before. Both of those make sense but the contract is an underrated factor in the discussion right now. Beckham has not kept his desire for a multi-year deal this offseason from the Rams in the eight-figure range a secret, and he hasn’t been shy about expressing disappointment that it hasn’t come yet. Finding a place he can settle down and finish out his career seems to be important to him right now.
It’s easy enough to find playoff teams with good quarterbacks who need help at receiver. It could come down to the money, though, as it so often does. With that in mind, here are our top five landing spots for Beckham:
There’s been a little bit of chatter about Beckham returning to New York but it still feels like the Giants are viewed as a dark horse at best to land him. I think their chances could be better than most people think. If the length and size of the deal are going to be tiebreakers, the Giants are in a great position to outbid other teams for Beckham if they want.
Over The Cap has New York ranked fourth in the NFL in 2023 with a projected effective cap space of $46.3 million. That takes into account draft picks and the cost to fill out a full 51-man offseason roster. It’s also before any cap cuts or restructures.
Things are tighter this year but there are ways to structure that with a minimum salary, incentives and bonuses that don’t hit until 2023 for New York. Most teams would be looking at doing that anyway, but what sets the Giants apart is their greater flexibility compared to other teams to get closer to the rumored $11 million per year Beckham was hoping to get as a free agent.
He still knows plenty of current players who have been working to recruit him and visited the locker room earlier this year. It appears there are enough positive feelings about his first stint in New York to where Beckham would seriously consider a reunion. It helps that the current regime of HC Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen is dramatically more equipped to bring the best out of Beckham than guys like Tom Coughlin and Dave Gettleman.
This makes a lot of sense from a football perspective for the Giants, too. They’re 6-2 and have a great shot at a playoff berth in what was supposed to be the first year of a painful rebuild. Receiver is probably their biggest weakness now and a position they’ll need to address next year. Beckham not only can still play, but he could be a valuable veteran presence for young players on the roster or who will be brought in next season. The Giants have been disciplined in understanding who they are right now but Beckham fits into both the short-term and long-term picture.
From his perspective, the team’s record automatically grabs attention. And while QB Daniel Jones would rank fifth out of the five quarterbacks we discuss, it’s worth mentioning he’s thought a lot more highly of in NFL circles, especially for the work he’s done this season. Beckham would be the best receiver he’s played with.
The team that’s most recently popped up in the Beckham discussion, Dallas players, coaches and ownership have started their recruiting pitch this week. They hit the major checkboxes from a team record and QB quality perspective. Financially, they’re more limited than the Giants, but they still should have the budget to put a compelling and competitive offer on the table.
Dallas is just barely in the black per OTC for 2023 but they can add about $22 million in cap space with cuts like LT Tyron Smith, CB Jourdan Lewis, DE Dorance Armstrong and S Malik Hooker — veterans who all have younger, cheaper options behind them right now. The Cowboys could also restructure QB Dak Prescott and gain the same amount of space in one move, or do both and really be swimming in cash.
This offseason, the Cowboys infamously traded WR Amari Cooper because they felt he was too expensive and they needed to set aside money for a new deal for WR Michael Gallup and to spend on other spots. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb will be eligible for an extension for the first time this offseason, so that’s another factor the Cowboys will take into account. But they do still have two more years of team control with him. They could sign Beckham to a decent deal and still be spending less on the three of them than they would have been with Cooper in the fold.
We already mentioned it, but the Cowboys tick the other major boxes Beckham will be looking for. Prescott might not be the best quarterback Beckham has played with, but if he’s behind Rams QB Matthew Stafford, it’s not by that much. The Cowboys are winning with a different formula than last year but they could be even better. The defense is exceptional, and Beckham would address the biggest weakness on offense which is a lack of targets outside of Lamb. They’re also a huge media market, which seems to appeal to Beckham.
The Chiefs were one of the teams in on Beckham last season when he ultimately signed with the Rams and there was a lot of noise that Kansas City would be major players for Beckham again this year. Then they traded for WR Kadarius Toney and that quieted down somewhat.
However, Beckham to the Chiefs would still make a lot of sense and I wouldn’t discount Kansas City. They can get to $30 million in expected cap space next offseason with one move — cutting DE Frank Clark and saving just under $20 million. If they want Beckham, they’ll be able to afford him.
Why would they want Beckham when they have a wide receiver depth chart that seems pretty stacked now with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, second-round rookie Skyy Moore and now Toney? Isn’t adding Beckham overkill? Well for all the players the Chiefs have on offense, the only two guys you feel confident about beating man-to-man coverage reliably right now are TE Travis Kelce and maybe Toney. The Chiefs are humming on offense but they’re seeing way more man coverage than they have in the past. On the rare occasions they do stall out, it’s because their receivers are having a tough time separating. That’s something that could become a much bigger issue when the schedule gets harder in the playoffs, so it makes sense for the Chiefs to try and get ahead of it now.
Down the line, Toney, Moore and Valdes-Scantling are the only receivers under contract in 2023, and the latter can be cut to save $7 million with just $4 million in dead money. Beckham would be a valuable veteran presence for the youngsters and also wouldn’t prevent the team from adding someone else or even re-signing Smith-Schuster.
Admittedly, Beckham would be a luxury. The Chiefs will be just fine if they lose out on Beckham. They could be better with him in the fold, though, and with how tight the margins in the NFL are, every little bit helps toward a Super Bowl.
I think Beckham loves living and playing in Los Angeles, so you can’t throw the Rams out of the mix until he signs on the dotted line with someone else. But their cap situation in 2023 is going to be a real challenge. They’re projected to be in the red and will need to make some moves to clear space to fill out their team, let alone make any notable additions.
The challenge is there aren’t many obvious cap cuts that move the needle in cap savings and are worth the dead money hit. Los Angeles can and will go the restructuring route but they’ll have to be careful. All of the players who are options for this move are at or past the age of 30, which makes it risky to push too much investment into the future and limit the flexibility to move on.
Los Angeles will take even more care than usual to make sure the money they’re freeing up is going into players they’re confident will be key producers for them. With that in mind, is Beckham a prudent investment? He’ll be 31 and coming off his second torn ACL. They already have Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson and Van Jefferson. It doesn’t mean they couldn’t use Beckham but they might already have enough invested at the position and need to spread things around, like to the offensive line or edge rushing group.
If the price is right, the Rams could definitely be in the mix. My sense is they won’t win a bidding war and Beckham won’t be chomping at the bit to join a 3-6 team unless their fortunes dramatically change soon.
Last year, it arguably made more sense for Beckham to sign with the Chiefs or Packers than the Rams. But the Rams players, led by Von Miller who himself had barely had time to set up his locker at that point, put on a full-court press in recruiting Beckham and making him feel like he was more welcome in Los Angeles.
So don’t dismiss the fact that Miller is in Buffalo now and making his pitch to Beckham. Still, I think it would take Beckham being willing to take a discount and perhaps even another injury to Buffalo’s receiving corps to really get these two sides together. Maybe he’s willing to do that if he really likes the fit. And more weapons can’t hurt from Buffalo’s perspective.
If there’s a bidding war for Beckham, the Bills will have a hard time justifying getting involved though. They’re going to need to do a decent amount of work to get under the cap, fill out the roster and make room for moves this offseason. They have -$17 million in expected cap space in 2023 and major pending free agents like S Jordan Poyer and LB Tremaine Edmunds. They can restructure QB Josh Allen and Miller but they’ll need to make other cuts or restructures.
Considering the skill position talent they have already with Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox and Nyheim Hines, plus youngsters like fourth-rounder Khalil Shakir and second-rounder James Cook, it makes sense for the Bills to stay cheap and save precious cap space for other, more important needs.
Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…
So far, 2022 is the year of the quarterback slump. Here’s a list of quarterbacks who are unequivocally playing well:
That’s it…
Josh Allen was on the list but he’s officially in a slump after this past week. Also not included are Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray and probably some others. All of them are playing below the standard we’ve seen for the rest of their careers, to varying degrees. Common sense says we’ve seen all of these guys play too well for too long to not think some, perhaps even most, won’t figure things out eventually, Cover 2 be damned…
it's really just the mistakes/misses in the red zone. here are the EPA/dropback leaders outside of RZ. he's been as good as any QB in the MVP discussion …
unfortunately, RZ performance decides games and he's actively losing the jags games in the RZ. pic.twitter.com/8KbuP2hR8X
— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) November 1, 2022
Let’s just go ahead and talk about quarterbacks a bunch. The position is hard to evaluate and much harder to play. There’s a lot of nuance that goes into it that’s often lost on talk shows or on social media, and this is a good example of why it’s important to look at the bigger picture. Based on this effectively being his rookie year, I’m willing to take the above stat as a pretty good sign Trevor Lawrence is good. And sooner than later, he’ll figure out what he can and can’t get away with in the red zone…
Another good example of context, this ESPN article from before the Broncos’ last game against the Jaguars is a good example of how discussing quarterback play is complicated. There’s a lot that’s gone into Wilson’s slow start to the 2022 season. Figuring out what’s due to being on a new team, what’s due to the coaching/play calling, and what’s due to Wilson being perhaps a different player at 33 than he was at 28 will be huge for Denver going forward…
Similarly, it’d be easy to look at Smith’s stats for the Seahawks this season compared to every other year of his career and dismiss him as a fluke. But the nuts and bolts of what Smith is doing on the field right now, as illustrated by Football Outsiders, show Smith is no fluke…
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