No time like the present for this Vikings futures bet

Football. Is. Back.

That's right folks, the NFL preseason schedule officially kicks off this Thursday. The Houston Texans will battle the New England Patriots at 7 p.m. ET, then the Minnesota Vikings will take on the Seattle Seahawks at 10 p.m. ET. Before we get started on preseason handicapping, though, let's continue our deep dive into the futures market and take a look at the most vulnerable team lacing it up this Thursday.

Win total Wednesday: Fade the fluky Vikings

On the surface, the Vikings had an extremely successful 2022 season. Minnesota went 13-4 in the regular season and won the NFC North for the first time since 2017, but that doesn't tell the full story. In reality, the Vikings were a mediocre-at-best team that overachieved all year. 

For starters, the Vikings finished last season with a -3 point differential. Of the 20 teams that finished with a negative point differential, only four of them had a winning record in the regular season. The New York Giants went 9-7-1, and the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers both went 9-8. But the Vikings? The Vikings lucked their way to a 13-4 record.

How, you ask? Well, according to Team Rankings, Minnesota finished with the highest luck rating in the NFL last season by a comfortable margin. The Vikings went 11-0 in games decided by one possession, which simply isn't repeatable in 2023. 

If you want to get more technical with it, the Vikings finished last year as the 27th-ranked team in overall DVOA, which placed them behind teams such as the Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams.

The Vikings were a fraudulent Super Bowl contender all season in 2022, and the truth finally came out when they lost to the Giants on their home field in the wild-card round. Now they have to play a first-place schedule in 2023, Dalvin Cook is gone and the defense isn't in a much better spot than it was last year.

The bet: Vikings under 8.5 wins (+104 FanDuel)

In the news ...

Ronald Acuna Jr. leaves game after HBP, X-rays negative — Atlanta Braves fans held their collective breath Tuesday night when Acuna Jr. took a 97 mph sinker to the left elbow and left the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates early. The superstar outfielder immediately underwent X-rays, and the team later announced they came back negative. Acuna Jr., now considered day-to-day, is still a massive -700 favorite to win NL MVP.

FedEx Cup Playoffs begin Thursday with the FedEx St. Jude Championship — The PGA Tour regular season concluded with last week's Wyndham Championship, and the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings are off to Memphis, Tenn. for the first leg of the playoffs at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. After this week, the top 50 will move on to the BMW Championship. Then, the top 30 will advance to the TOUR Championship in search of the $18M grand prize. Jon Rahm currently sits atop the standings, but World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the +600 betting favorite to win at TPC Southwind this week. 

Quarterfinal matchups set at Women's World Cup — Team USA may have been bounced earlier than expected, but the 2023 Women's World Cup continues on to the quarterfinals. Spain will face the Netherlands Thursday, Japan will go up against Sweden Friday, then Australia will meet France and England will face Columbia Saturday. England is now the +275 favorite to win the Women's World Cup, followed by Spain (+300) and Japan (+450).

Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty