Odds Lions Beat Buccaneers in Week 7

On Monday night, the Lions will look to get back on track against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Detroit, sitting at 4-2 and in second place in the NFC North, is coming off a 30-17 defeat at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday night. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay – sitting in first place in the NFC South with a 5-1 record – is coming off a 30-19 victory over the 49ers in Week 6.

The Lions have been dominant at home since 2023, boasting one of the league’s loudest environments and most balanced offensive attacks behind veteran signal-caller Jared Goff.

Goff continues to operate Detroit’s offense with precision, distributing the ball effectively to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams while leaning on a steady running attack led by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. 

The Lions have proven capable of scoring in a variety of ways, which should test a Tampa Bay defense that thrives on creating turnovers.

Defensively, Detroit has been defined by physicality and opportunism under coordinator Kelvin Sheppard. 

Anchored by star EDGE Aidan Hutchinson and safety Kerby Joseph, the unit has delivered in key moments. However, it faces a tall task in slowing down Mayfield, who’s been one of the NFL’s top stories so far this season.

Mayfield has had an MVP-caliber start to the 2025 campaign. 

The eighth-year pro ranks among the league leaders in passing touchdowns (12) and yards (1,539), while throwing just one interception through six games. He’s engineered four fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, displaying the poise and toughness that once made him a No. 1 overall pick. 

Mayfield also possesses mobility, a dimension that could challenge Detroit’s containment discipline. In fact, he’s already accumulated 158 yards and 11 first downs on the ground this season. 

Despite his stellar start, Mayfield will be working with a depleted supporting cast Monday. 

Tampa Bay rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka — who leads the team in receptions (27), yards (469) and touchdowns (five) — is expected to miss the primetime showdown with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, running back Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder) and wideout Chris Godwin (fibula) are also sidelined, limiting the Buccaneers’ offensive options.

That shortage of playmakers could be crucial, especially against a Lions defense eager to respond after last week’s lackluster effort against the Chiefs. 

However, Detroit will also be shorthanded. Safety Brian Branch will serve a one-game suspension for his postgame altercation last week with Kansas City receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Additionally, D.J. Reed (hamstring) and Terrion Arnold (shoulder) – the team’s starting outside cornerbacks – will also miss the Lions’ Monday night tilt with the Buccaneers.

Meanwhile, on a positive note, defensive tackle Alim McNeill, who has been sidelined with a torn ACL since Week 15 of last season, will make his season debut against Tampa Bay.

Detroit head man Dan Campbell, to no surprise, is excited for the interior defensive lineman's return.

“Everybody loves Mac, man," Campbell said during his weekly appearance on 97.1 The Ticket, the flagship radio station of the Lions. "They know what kind of teammate he is, but what kind of production he can bring to us in the run and pass game. He’s the type of guy who elevates the guys around him. He’ll elevate their level of play or their production, just him being out there, because he’s going to draw a little bit of attention.”

With both teams jockeying for playoff positioning, Monday’s game feels like a midseason litmus test. 

The Lions’ depth on offense and home-field advantage make them deserving favorites, but they’ll need sharper execution to knock off Mayfield’s gritty Buccaneers.

At this present juncture, I'll give the Lions a 57 percent chance to capture the Week 7 victory.