Odds That Jordan Love Would Complete 20 Straight? Between Slim and None

On Sunday in Pittsburgh, the student didn’t just beat the master. He beat him at his own game.

During 15 superlative seasons as the Green Bay Packers’ starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. Six times he finished in the top five in completion percentage, including in 2020, when he led the NFL and won his third MVP.

Not once did he complete 20 consecutive passes, like Love did against Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night.

What are the odds of Love going on such a heater? According to Next Gen Stats, there was a “0.1 percent chance of completing all 20 passes based on individual completion probabilities.”

Led by that remarkable streak, which was an enormous factor in Green Bay advancing into field-goal range (but missing) at the end of the first half, driving to three consecutive touchdowns to start the second half and tacking on two more field goals, Love put together a six-possession stretch that amassed 332 yards, 28 points and 15 first downs.

Love finished 29-of-37 passing for 360 yards. With three touchdowns, zero interceptions and 9.7 yards per attempt, he finished with a 134.2 passer rating. Making his 40th career start, it was Love’s best passer rating, second-most yards and sixth-greatest yards per attempt. It was his sixth career game with three-plus touchdown passes and zero interceptions.

“I thought it was really impressive, because he was making some high-level throws down the field,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday. “We were pushing the ball from early on in the game down the field. We didn’t connect on a couple of those, but I thought, all in all, he did a great job. He was in complete command of the game, made a couple of off-schedules. So, I thought he played really, really well.”

Love outplayed his mentor, Rodgers. Until the final drive, Packers tight end Tucker Kraft had almost as many receiving yards as Rodgers had passing yards.

“Twenty straight completions, that’s how we get the ball going,” Kraft said after the game. “It takes everybody. Everybody needs to step up and do their one-eleventh one play at a time, and that’s what we saw today. Jordan, he played a hell of a game. That’s what we need out of him every week, so he did his part.”

Love was the third quarterback this season to throw for at least 350 yards and three touchdowns but zero interceptions.

“He’s him. He’s him,” defensive end Rashan Gary said. “Everybody in the league, if y’all not woke, please wake up. Get the crust out your eyes because he is him and 10 is coming. Period.”

A big key was how Love beat the famed Blitzburgh defense. According to Next Gen, he was 12-of-17 passing for 211 yards and three touchdowns against the blitz. That’s the third-most passing yards against the blitz this season.

“Jordan’s shown a ton of growth,” LaFleur said after the game. “We have a ton of confidence in him. That was, I thought he played a complete game.”

Love had struggled under pressure this season but was 6-of-12 passing for 118 yards, according to Pro Football Focus.

With Love on a roll, the Packers scored 35 points, their second-most this season behind the 40-40 tie at Dallas in Week 4.

“I think there’s definitely been flashes all season of our identity, and I think the message has always been just trying to find that consistency,” Love said after the game. “I think obviously getting Christian (Watson) back was awesome, just another explosive player.

“What we want to be is the most explosive offense in the NFL. So, I think just trying to find ways to be as consistent as possible, because we know what type of offense we’re capable of being. It just comes down to making plays. The first half, it wasn’t up to our standard and obviously, I think the score reflected that (and) some of our drives reflected that. And you look at the flip side, in the second half, we were able to do that. So, I think that’s just what we need to be at all times, just trying to be as consistent as possible.”

Led by Love’s excellent performance against Rodgers and the Steelers, the Packers are 5-1-1 and have the best record in the NFC.

Love enters the Week 9 home game against the Carolina Panthers ranked fourth in passer rating. He’s also fourth in yards per attempt and fourth in completion percentage, helped by a completion streak that matched what Brett Favre did against the Lions 18 years ago as the longest in franchise history.  

“The legacy that he left, I would say Jordan’s filling those shoes,” Kraft said. “When you’re talking about the Favre to Rodgers to Love, Jordan has stepped up and fulfilled his end of the bargain.”