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Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart 2025 NFL Draft Profile

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By Ian Valentino | Last updated Nov 19, 2024 1:24 PM ET

Jaxson Dart, QB

Height: 6'2"
Weight: 225 pounds
Age: 21 years old (May 13th, 2003)

Ole Miss

Year	Completion %	Yards	TDs	INTs
2021	61.9%	1,353	9	5
2022	62.4%	2,974	5	11
2023	65.1%	3,364	23	5
2024*	70.8%	3,409	22	4

_{* 2024 season still ongoing}

Pros:

Reliable game manager
The analytical case for Jaxson Dart to be a high-quality NFL starter is certainly in place. Entering the last few weeks of November, Dart has a ridiculous 11.4 yards per attempt average, 77.8 adjusted completion rate, terrific touchdown-to-interception rate, and respectable big-time-throw to turnover-worthy throw ratio. He runs a Lane Kiffin offense, which is one of the most QB-friendly in the country, and executes it at an impressively high level. Teams getting Dart that have a strong scheme and set of playmakers in place should see immediate competence and results.
Quality traits
Dart looks the part as an NFL quarterback. He has good size, a solid arm, natural accuracy, and can run the ball with enough mobility to treat him as a threat. He's far from a statue in the pocket and can manipulate space effectively to buy time. He'll have no issues fitting into either a more vertical attack or a West Coast scheme based on his traits, giving his coaching staff more flexibility for building a varied attack.
Avoiding negative plays
This relates to the first pro, but a closer examination of his situational performance is needed. Dart has never hoarded sacks, taking a sack while under pressure under 20% of the time throughout his career. His time to throw is a fantastic 2.72 mark, and he's creative enough to scramble for first downs, extend plays, and keep the offense moving.
Identifies weaknesses
Unlike other quarterbacks, Dart's performance when blitzed and not blitzed reveals he turns up the aggression and correctly reads where to go. His big-time-throw rate is significantly higher when he's blitzed, but his turnover-worthy throws are lower. He's throwing deeper and more accurately because he knows the solution to the blitz. That's a great sign of how he processes the situation.

Jaxson Dart airs it out for six pic.twitter.com/bJsZ0k8IAP
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) November 2, 2024

Cons:

Play under pressure
This can be an encompassing point, but we'll keep it focused to being under pressure on any given play. When clean, Dart eviscerates defenses with a low rate of potential turnovers. However, Dart shows a different side when there's a rusher coming toward him. He gets unnaturally reckless, seeing his turnover-worthy throws almost double and actually outpaces his big-time-throw rate. That's a massive red flag, even if he does well when blitzed. Four-man rushes who get through his blockers can cause chaos because Dart starts guessing when the coverage pattern isn't made clear by extra defenders coming.
Weak-side passing
Most right-handed quarterbacks are worse when they have to turn their bodies and deliver the ball to the far sideline. Dart, not possessing an especially strong arm, falls into this category. He is demonstratively worse throwing to his left, seeing his quality throws, production, and grades all dip compared to the middle and right parts of the field. Some of this is due to his traits and also his footwork, which can get sloppy and unbalanced when having to reset.
Big-game performances
My biggest concern with Dart is how he plays yo-yos in key matchups. He'll dominate some teams and all lower-tier foes on an even playing field, but going up a weight class brings different results. He gets hesitant and is slower to execute as passing windows close. It's not an accident that his worst games of the season came against the best defenses played, including Georgia, LSU, and South Carolina. It's hard to have a lot of confidence in someone who is inconsistent in key moments.

Player Evaluation:

If you can give Jaxson Dart a solid surrounding cast and creative offensive mind who will incorporate RPOs, quick throws and isolated receivers who can compete for deep passes, he can reward a franchise as a quality long-term starter. He's a good athlete with high-end processing, so dropping him into a starting job in 2025 can work. He has tendencies to fade when under pressure and in the season's biggest games, so Dart has to grow in those defining moments. We could see him going in Round 1 despite his lower grade, but he's a situation-dependent quarterback who may not thrive anywhere.

Player Comparison:

Pro Comp: Baker Mayfield
The pool of NFL quarterbacks who need a strong supporting cast to succeed is large, so Dart fitting into that net isn't a big concern. He has the traits to win playoff games and grow beyond what he's been pigeonholed to do in Kiffin's offense. At worst, Dart is a trustworthy option with warts. If he goes above and beyond what we've seen, his explosive passing tendencies could make him a major draft steal.