One Hidden Stat That Could Dictate Sunday's Falcons vs. Patriots Matchup

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga – The Atlanta Falcons are heading up to Foxborough to take on a New England Patriots team that has been the winner of five straight games coming into Week 9. On the other side, the Falcons must secure a win if they wish to avoid a brutal three-game losing streak as they come up to the midpoint of the NFL season. 

All eyes have been on a struggling Falcons offense, but also a defense that seems to have regressed in the wake of losing Divine Deablo to a fractured forearm, which has been receiving attention after a brutal performance against Miami last Sunday. 

With a growing pressure to perform and find ways to win, Week 9 could either prove to be a crucial turning point for the Falcons or a point of no return. 

With that said, what sort of edge could the Falcons establish against a streaking Patriots team? One potentially overlooked stat has shown to be a key indicator of whether or not the Falcons can get a win under head coach Raheem Morris. 

Can they win the turnover margin? Looking back at their history since the start of the 2024 season, it seems to be a critical thing for them. 

• When they WIN the turnover margin – 8-0
• When they TIE the turnover margin – 2-4
• When they LOSE the turnover margin – 1-9

Unfortunately, their Week 9 opponent may not be the best team to face off against with the hope of winning the turnover margin. 

The Patriots have been very effective at forcing takeaways from their opponents, and they have been relatively efficient at holding onto the ball themselves. They sit at +2 in the turnover margin – actually tied with the Falcons. They have 11 takeaways this season and have forced at least one turnover in seven of their eight games. 

Only Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Chicago have more takeaways than they do. 

Patriots quarterback Drake May has thrown just three interceptions, but the team has also lost fumbles another six times this season. In weeks where they do turn it over, they are just 2-2 in those games. 

The +2 turnover margin may also be a little bit more misleading than one might think. 

The Patriots have turned it over nine times, but five of those came in a loss to the Steelers in Week 3. Other than the one disaster, they have just four turnovers. In four of their eight games, they have played turnover-free football. 

On the Falcons' side, they have just two games where they have played turnover-free football. Their takeaways skyrocketed between Weeks 2 and 7, but they bookended those with a pair of goose eggs (both losses).

One thing is clear, though: the Falcons will need to get some takeaways on Sunday if they want to get a win.