One Reason Jaguars Could Turn Things Around Quickly

If Jacksonville really wants to return to the AFC playoffs, this is the year to do it. That’s because, according to Sharp Football Analysis, the Jaguars have the third-easiest schedule in the conference.

Only the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills in the AFC have easier slates based on Las Vegas’ projected win totals of opponents, aggregated by Warren Sharp. Overall, the Jaguars’ foes rank seventh-easiest in the league. That’s reason for hope in Duval County, Sharp explained.

“In 2024, just two of 10 teams with the toughest schedule made the playoffs (Lions and Rams),” he wrote. “Meanwhile, of the 10 teams with the easiest schedule, seven produced winning records, with six making the playoffs.

“Historically, trying to overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens. But winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectations happens often.”

Sharp also explained why he prefers Vegas projections over simply averaging the prior season’s combined winning percentage of opponents, how strength of schedule has traditionally been calculated.

“Projected win totals incorporate current information about team strength, including offseason acquisitions, injuries and coaching changes,” Sharp said. “These projections are crafted by sportsbooks aiming to predict future performance, making them more reflective of a team's current capabilities.”

And while Jacksonville sits on one end of the spectrum, division rival Houston is far on the other. The Texans have the third-hardest schedule in the AFC and eighth-toughest in the league overall.

Meanwhile, only four of Jacksonville’s nine home opponents were in the playoffs last year: Houston, Kansas City and both teams from Los Angeles, the Chargers and Rams. The Jaguars also host Indianapolis, Tennessee, Seattle, Carolina and the New York Jets.

The road portion of the Jaguars’ schedule represents one of the easiest in the NFL. Of the eight road trips, only two are against 2024 playoff teams (Houston and Denver). The others are Indianapolis, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Las Vegas, Arizona and San Francisco.

The league releases the full 2025 schedule on Wednesday night.