Packers QB Jordan Love’s Impact on Point Spreads Falls

Entering last season, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love had the fifth-highest impact on point spreads – even greater than Jared Goff, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts.

This year, according to Yahoo sports betting expert Ben Fawkes, he’s more of a middle-of-the-pack passer.

Fawkes spoke to a dozen oddsmakers from U.S.-based sportsbooks about the difference in the point spread between a healthy starting quarterback and a healthy backup quarterback if his team was playing at home against a league-average team.

After doing the math, Love ranks 11th this season. He is a 4.73-point difference on the spread compared to Malik Willis.

When Fawkes did this story last year, Love was deemed a 6.04-point difference on the spread compared to Sean Clifford.

That 1.27-point swing is a combination of two factors. One, Love is coming off a disappointing second season as the Packers’ starter. Due in part to injuries, his completion percentage was too low and his interception percentage was too high. As a team, the Packers went 9-6 in his 15 starts but were 7-8 against the spread.

“Love is good, but their main element is running. He was a little overvalued last year,” one oddsmaker told Fawkes.

Willis, on the other hand, proved to be a superb end-of-camp addition. Starting twice in place of Love, Willis not only beat the Colts in Week 2 and the Titans in Week 3, but he helped the team cover both spreads. He also led the Packers to the game-winning points at Jacksonville and rallied the Packers ahead of Chicago in Week 18.

“I think just knowing the offense, the concepts in the passing game,” is the biggest difference from last year, offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said last week of Willis. “When he came in, it was like, ‘All right, what do you like to do? What are your best skill-sets?’ And then we just tried to enhance that when he was in the game. Now it’s all right, just learn it all and then we can kind of see what you’re comfortable with, the stuff he wasn’t really even exposed to when he showed up.”

The biggest difference is the Bills’ Josh Allen, who is worth 6.98 points compared to backup Mitchell Trubisky. The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is a 6.94-point difference compared to Gardner Minshew and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson is a 6.65-point difference compared to Cooper Rush.

The most impactful quarterback in the NFC North is the Lions’ Jared Goff, who ranks eighth as a 5.06-point difference over young backup Hendon Hooker.

The headliner in Fawkes’ story is the Packers’ former quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. The four-time MVP ranks 20th as a 3.52-point difference over Mason Rudolph. He was worth 5.07 points against the spread last year with the Jets, making him the biggest faller.

There were some especially strong opinions on Rodgers in the story, though not everyone was down on him.

“Even at this stage in Rodgers’ career, there is still a large disparity between him and Rudolph,” one oddsmaker told Fawkes. “(Rodgers) landed with a stable organization that I believe will provide him the opportunity to turn the clock back a bit and regain the impressive play that we have witnessed from him so often over his career.”

Of course, on the field, it’s not about point spreads but wins and losses. The Packers have the sixth-shortest odds to win this year’s Super Bowl at FanDuel Sportsbook and they are a win-total mover.

“It’s definitely time” to make a playoff run, Love said at the start of camp. “Ever since I’ve been here, we’ve been a team that’s done well in the regular season. I think that’s the standard here. We’ve got to go win those games.

“Big emphasis on the NFC North. We’ve done a great job of that in the past, and I think obviously last year was our worst year in the NFC North. It starts there. It starts with going out and winning those games against the NFC North teams. But I think obviously building upon that, once you get into the postseason, that’s the games that matter. For us to take that next step, it’s all about the work we put in every day.”