Panthers have made contract offer to two-time Pro Bowler

The details of that offer are presently unclear, so it is difficult to handicap the likelihood of an agreement coming together before the start of the regular season. Additionally, as Gantt observes, Burns may want to wait until the 49ers’ ongoing negotiations with Nick Bosa, another standout pass rusher from the 2019 draft class, are completed before he puts pen to paper on his own contract. While Burns’ next deal will not be as lucrative as Bosa’s, the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, the aphorism “a rising tide lifts all boats” is applicable here.

Regardless of what happens with Bosa, Burns is expected to land a contract that places him among the top-five or top-six highest-paid edge defenders. In the current market, such a deal would include an average annual value upwards of $22M and practical guarantees of more than $53M, though it is possible that Burns will top those figures by a comfortable margin.

The Panthers may want to wrap their talks with Burns sooner rather than later in light of the ever-rising price tag for high-end pass rushers, but there is no real urgency from a club control perspective. Burns is set to play out the 2023 season on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal—which will pay him just north of $16M—and the team can hit him with the franchise tag next year if it so chooses. The value of the tag is projected to be in the $24M-$25M range, which is roughly what Burns’ AAV on an extension would be anyway.

Burns’ on-field performance has obviously set a high baseline for his second NFL contract. Though Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics suggest that his run defense could still use some work, teams place a higher value on pass-rushing ability these days, and Burns has that in spades. He set a career-high with 12.5 sacks in 2022, and since he turned pro in 2019, he has generated 38 sacks, which is the 11th-highest total in the league over that four-year timeframe. He has also earned Pro Bowl acclaim in each of the last two seasons.

Another factor that will help him in negotiations is the fact that the Panthers rebuffed a trade proposal from the Rams prior to last year’s deadline that would have netted Carolina 2024 and 2025 first-round selections and a 2023 second-rounder in exchange for Burns. Obviously, that gives the Florida State alum some extra leverage, and it is certainly possible that the Panthers’ shift to a 3-4 front under new DC Ejiro Evero could improve his all-around performance, which would drive his value even higher.