Patrick Mahomes 2025 Redraft Outlook: Can Mahomes Bounce Back from Disappointing Super Bowl and 2024 Season?

2024 was (arguably) the Chiefs’ “bad” year offensively. And yet, Mahomes fell just shy of 4,000 passing yards. Read that again. The guy didn’t even play a full season, had receivers dropping passes like they were allergic to footballs, and still put up numbers most QBs dream about on their best day. He completed a career-high 67.5% of his throws, even if his yards per attempt dipped to an uncharacteristic 6.8. Regression, sure, but not a nosedive.

You want to blame someone? Blame his supporting cast. Rashee Rice’s injury left a wide receiver corps so shallow it genuinely made us wonder if they had more faith in Travis Kelce’s knees holding up than drafting or developing extra pass-catchers. Xavier Worthy was learning Andy Reid’s scheme on the fly, and yeah, it showed.

Even so, he didn’t throw in the towel. He rallied the Chiefs to a 15-1 finish. That’s not just resilience; that’s elite quarterbacking when everything around you breaks down. Bad offensive line? No problem. Receivers playing hot potato? He’s got it. Mahomes lifted the team in 2024 despite these issues, and that kind of relentless determination is what makes this guy different.

Why 2025 Is Shaping Up to Be a Mahomes Revival

The narrative about Mahomes “falling off” because of 2024 is honestly laughable when you take a peek at what Kansas City’s been cooking this offseason. They’ve beefed up their offensive line by drafting Josh Simmons, who’s a top-tier tackle prospect, and signed free agent Jaylon Moore. Protecting the franchise player? Pretty essential stuff.

Then, there’s the upgrades at wide receiver. Xavier Worthy leveled up late last season (once the training wheels came off), and guess what? Rashee Rice is healthy again, which should keep defenses honest. Add Marquise Brown into that mix, and suddenly, Mahomes has tools he didn’t have last year. Sure, Kelce may not light it up in fantasy anymore, but as a chain mover, he’s still a nightmare for coverage schemes.

Call me overly optimistic or just a Mahomes truther, but the table is set for 4,500+ passing yards and north of 35 touchdowns this season. Betting against him feels like betting against Steph Curry to hit a free throw. You don’t want to be that person.

Why Mahomes is Still the Fantasy QB You Want

For all the stats nerds out there clutching their spreadsheets, here’s why Mahomes remains a slam dunk in your 2025 fantasy draft:

• High Floor: A “bad” season for Mahomes means he still averaged nearly 20 points per game in four-point passing TD leagues. That’s his floor, people.
• Improved Receiving Corps: No offense to last year’s version of the Chiefs’ WR room, but this year’s iteration is far more dynamic. Worthy knows the scheme, Rice is back, and Brown adds veteran reliability. That matters.
• Historical Production: Mahomes has cleared 4,000 passing yards in every fully played season except one. His ceiling? He’s hit 5,000+ yards multiple times. It’s absurd.
• Team Identity: This is still Andy Reid’s pass-happy offense. They aren’t going to suddenly morph into some run-heavy scheme, and that works to Mahomes’ advantage.
• Draft Value: With drafters wary of the slight dip, Mahomes might slip to QB6 or later in your fantasy league. Don’t overthink it; that’s a bargain.

Final Thoughts

If you’re doubting Patrick Mahomes, maybe football isn’t for you. The Chiefs’ offensive upgrades, Mahomes’ unfailing ability to make magic out of chaos, and Kansas City’s commitment to the aerial attack all scream, “Buy now.” Fantasy football is about upside, and Mahomes on a “normal” year is still better than 90% of other quarterbacks at their best.

Mark my words, those passing prop bets for 4,000+ yards at nearly even odds? Steal. And by the time January rolls around, don’t come crying when Mahomes is back in MVP contention and you skipped on him in your draft because you got spooked by one “off” season.

Patrick Mahomes isn’t going anywhere. Draft him, bet on him, and enjoy the ride.