Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs in uncharted territory

It's been a decade since the Kansas City Chiefs have failed to win the AFC West, something that is now a strong possibility after Kansas City's 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos on Sunday. 

As a starter, Patrick Mahomes has never presided over a season in which the Chiefs have lost their division or won less than 11 games in the regular season, the latter of which is also possible unless Kansas City wins six of its last seven games. 

The Chiefs are undoubtedly in uncharted territory at this point in the season, and it will take a Lewis and Clark-esque expedition for them to find a path to the postseason. 

The good news? Kansas City has taken care of the opponents it should've taken care of this season. The Chiefs dispatched of the Giants, Ravens, Commanders and Raiders with ease and earned a signature win over the Detroit Lions. 

But when faced with some of the best competition the NFL has to offer, the Chiefs have fallen flat. KC is 0-5 in one-score games this season, losing to Buffalo, Jacksonville, Denver, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Chargers. 

For a team that has routinely won one-possession games during the reign of Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid, the script has been flipped. It will need to be flipped in the opposite direction if the Chiefs want to sneak into the playoffs. 

Chiefs have a tough road ahead 

Kansas City has a gauntlet of a schedule ahead of it. The Colts (8-2) visit Arrowhead Stadium on Nov. 23 in what is the biggest home game for the Chiefs so far this season. A visit to Dallas on Thanksgiving to face the maligned Cowboys follows, but Kansas City can't afford to take the Cowboys lightly. The Chiefs will then return home to face another playoff hopeful in the Houston Texans. 

Kansas City will also have revenge opportunities on tap - both of which will be played at Arrowhead - against the Broncos and Chargers sandwiched in between two very winnable games against the Titans and Raiders. 

First on the to-do list for Kansas City is taking care of business against the latter two opponents. No disrespect to the Titans or Raiders, but neither are teams that have any business beating a playoff-hopeful Kansas City team. 

Those two wins would give the Chiefs eight on the season. 

Since the NFL moved to 17 regular season games in 2021, the No. 7 seed in the AFC has not won less than nine games. Assuming Kansas City beats the Titans, Texans and Raiders, they would need at least one more victory to stay afloat in the playoff race. 

But it may take 10 or even 11 regular season victories for the Chiefs to earn a playoff berth this season in a competitive AFC. The aforementioned Texans are also 5-5 and flank K.C. as a team on the outside looking in. So do the 5-5 Baltimore Ravens. 

Above Kansas City, the three wild-card teams are the 7-3 Bills, the 7-4 Chargers and the 6-4 Jaguars. All three of those teams could reach 10 wins over the final seven weeks of the season, forcing Kansas City to win 11 to make the playoffs - a very difficult task given their schedule. 

Mahomes and the Chiefs have a championship pedigree. They certainly have experience when it comes to playing in and winning big games. But this kind of adversity can break a group that has seldom gone through it, and the next seven games will be an excellent test of the Chiefs' resolve.